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« Squirrely Market, Pullback Still On | Main | Seasonal Pattern, Swine Flu and the Four Year Presidential Cycle »

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

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politics

Yelnick:

Thank you for you work it is greatly appreciated! Question re: Yves...

What is his target for wave 5 down? Also, what is exactly is he saying when he says "Prepare for going long, fear and volatility."...confused as to meaning?

EN

I got a sell signal in the last hour of trade today on an hourly basis. Interesting to also note that the high from last week was a fibonacci 21 trading hours to the high of this week. As long as today's high does not get violated, I am short-term bearish.

Good luck all.

Glenn Loser Neely.

Last night, I ate a Big Mac at Mc Donalds so I issued an Secret Emergency update because I went to the bathroom under a huge emergency and the waves talked to me. (Only idiots received my bulletin). After spending 3 hours in my personal and ultra-secret bathroom I sent a garbage bulletin with this:

My reccomendation was to get out of our Long position around 842 with a 9-point
($500) profit per contract. Tuesday’s sell-off suggests wave-c has ended, so
a 1-2 week d-wave decline should be underway. Neely Garbage River ultra secret theory allows us to Short on a rally, so risk 1% on a Short at 863.50 Jun. with a stop at 872.25.

But since I am a loser, we couldn't sell at 863.50 because we never reached that level. So I decided to read what Von Hochberg wrote today, and I came to the conclusion that I need to go back to the bathroom and wait for the Taco bell dinner to make effect on me. As soon as I speak to the waves, I will send a mega-ultra secret emergency uptdate.

Please do not make fun of me. Otherwise I will never write on this blog again.
Please understand that being a loser is not an easy thing, you need at least 25 years of experience.

sincerely,

Glenn Loser Neely
Neo Garbage Wave (toilet incorporated)

Robert Murdoch

Certainly "Glen Loser Neely's" posting privileges can be revoked, can they not. He is a waste of band width.

Robert Murdoch

I don't subscribe to the STU. Could someone please state what their take on the market is since their Monday update.

Thank you

james dow

"Glen Loser Neely' I will take your Neely subscription. You can take mine.
jamesdow5@gmail.com

EN

The really funny part is the above poster is obviously somebody who is paying Neely for his trading updates! I actually laughed really hard when I read (toilet incorporated).

BTW, where is that crazy DOW PREDATOR? I loved his venomous insults.

Tom

EN, you posted in an earlier message that you took Neely's River Trading course some time ago. Can you elaborate on your experience with his course, if you feel it was worth it? One person who attended one of his sales seminars critiqued it on a blog by saying it was basically channel trading, so I wonder if it's truly unique or something you can learn on your own elsewhere. However, I should mention the blogger only attended the seminar and did not take his course. If anyone else has experience with his course, please share it. Thanks.

I like the idea that we may still be in a Wave 4 correction since Novemmber of last year. Wave A (Nov - Jan) and Wave C (March - April) actually contain the exact number of trading days (29) and approximately the same number of points (202 vs. 209) so they are nicely symmetrical. It would fit well with Neely's contracting triangle with reverse alternation scheme which imply a similar outcome. The only problem I have is that Wave C has subdivided into three waves only and I was the under the impression that EW requires it to subvide into five waves. I guess the way around this is to assume a running triangle formation where each leg subdivdes into three.

vipul garg

..DG,
it seems more likely that c ended at a lower high.to me now wave c looks better as a reverse alternation contracting triangle ..but today then should be a day of tremendous follow through atleast a 300 point drop on dow..
further if wave c ended here , then d will retrace whole of c wave and also e wave cannot exceed this high made ..

MSC IT dissertation

Blogs are good for every one where we get lots of information for any topics nice job keep it up !!!


Yves

politics , I wrote this in March of 2007.It warned ahead of the dammage from money repatriation and unwinding.Those suggestions sound as good today as before.

http://www.blackmont.com/lamoureux/files/commentary_Lamoureux_Financial.pdf

I will post next week an update .I work mostly with quantifying monies velocity so as for target Dow 5,000 it sounds good to me but really what if my liquidity index does not go on a buy signal, what target then ?

Yves

DG

Tom,

A c wave in a triangle can be three waves and should not be five waves (unless the c wave is a triangle itself, which can happen).

Tom

Yes, in a triangle, it should be three waves, but in the running flat scenario that Yves describes in his comment above, I believe the C wave should be subdivided into five waves, like it normally does in an A-B-C correction. Sorry, I should mention I'm using Elliott Wave definitions rather than Neowave.

KRG

DG:

Here is a link to the Dollar Yen LT chart:
http://sites.google.com/site/krgishere/files/sg2009041660561.GIF
any thoughts?

DG

Tom,

OK, I didn't realize you were describing a C wave in a flat. I thought you were looking for a five-wave C wave in Neely's triangle scenario. My mistake.

EN

Tom:

I would say that Neely's course was useful in many respects but not a complete trading method. It draws on work published by Gann and others and you are right that channels are a large aspect of it. For trading, I am convinced that one must be aware of pivot points and moving averages - they tend to work very well. Neely's trading method, at the time I took it, only considered two elements, price action and time.

vipul garg

market is a buy.. i dont think its going down anywhere.. its ready to go up..
any bearish triangle looks an imposed count..all sell offs are so that few ride the next swift wave up to 950.
its an E leg of expanding triangle since october and must have a blow off move

DG

Vipul,

Maybe, but let's wait for the cash market to open up. I have seen many days where they push up the futures and open us at what turns out to be the high of the day.

vipul garg

there is no follow through on downside ..just scares..

one more sell off from higher levels aand it should be done ...

Tartan

Is Neely's hourly trade call from yesterday still valid? Should this call be acted upon if we hit 863.5?

Kevin Smith

I see Neowave recommendations mentioned here from some posters. For those that do not subscribe to Neowave's trading service, be aware that he provides trading recos for 3 different timeframes: hourly, daily and weekly. The one mentioned above by "Loser" was Neely's hourly recommendation. Daily & weekly traders had different entry levels. I don't trade on an hourly or even daily time-frame, but rather the weekly. And weekly BTW has been the best performing timeframe this year.

Kevin

DG

Tartan,

From what I'm seeing of the formation this week (a triangle that may have just ended here in the last hour of trading.), I would hold off on shorting even if we reach that level. I think we might be back to Neely's old alternate count with a rally to who the heck knows. How insane that is is not for me to judge, I'm just going by what I see on the charts.

Tartan

DG,

From todays lows, I am seeing a zig zag, x wave and then an expanding triangle. It seems that we had a bit of an E-wave throwover of the AC trendline after hours and the expanding triangle has now finished.

I have interpreted this as a setup for a selloff in the futures market tonight and into tomorrow. I am by no means confident in this assessment!

Clearly, you are seeing something different.

DG

Tartan,

I was going back to Monday's action. Monday down into Tuesday was wave A, Tuesday's low to yesterday's high wave B, yesterday's high to today's low wave C, the move off the low to the early high today wave D and then the last dip wave E.

That entire triangle would be the X-wave of a complex corrective rally starting on April 1st, which would now continue up past last Friday's high.

As always, I could be wrong, I'm just trying not to be biased by the fact that I want the market to go down because I've been holding a short position and don't really want to hedge it with a long position, although if we take out Friday's highs, I will do just that.

Forkoholic Serge

SPX futures formed a triangle. Today's action reminds somewhat of yesterday (circled on the chart). The sooner it breaks the bigger move would be.
http://forkoholic.spaces.live.com

DG

Serge,

I would be wary of doing Elliott Wave counts on futures markets, especially one that trades nearly around the clock. One of the requirements of Elliott Wave is that the counts be done on markets where mass psychology predominates. Futures markets tend to be lightly traded after hours. Better to use cash data, as Neely says.

john walker

Who on earth is Robin Landry, that Yelnick wants to quote his opinion???

Forkoholic Serge

DG,
do me a favor
you do your count,
I do mine

May the fork be with you!

DG

Forkoholic,

OK, but your count is just plain wrong. Have fun trading it.

cribrange

Banter

Robert Murdoch

John Walker:

Have you ever heard of Google? If so, you will readily discover Robin Landry's work experience.

da bear

The line in the sand on the DJIA is 7777. As long as the DJIA stays above 8,000 then the rally to 9,000 (and beyond) is on.

Gold may have more up down sequence before breaking out. looking at a chart from the $690 lows shows gold in a triangle, which will break one way or the other soon...

A few months ago I saw a chart of the DOW in the early eighties. showed the 1,000 high, then the gradual downswing with lower highs, then a break down to 777. followed by a blast off to 1,600 rather quickly. ... and that obviously marked the best time (DOW 777 in 1982) to get in stocks.

Can gold do the same thing? a 1,000 high within a possible larger bear market, a decline to possibly 777 then a quick blastoff to $1,600 to kick off an 18 year super bull market?

... thought that this scenario for gold could give us elliott wave followers and market technicians something to look at.

da bear

da bear

850 is a line in the sand of sorts for gold. represents the 50% retracement level from the $690 low...


da bear

MSC IT dissertation

Blogs are good for every one where we get lots of information for any topics nice job keep it up !!!

DG

MSC IT dissertation,

Never mind how much you like blogs, what's your wave count?

vipul garg

gold needs to make a move above 940$ to confirm that a low is in and that after a smaall decline to 900 , it will begin a new ascent to 1200-1300 $ area..

Australia

Based upon where the USD is, in relation to the majors - Sterling, Euro, and Swiss - the odds are higher on the count which leads us higher breaking 872 June. Moreover it would be logical to assume the rally would be violent, not only based upon the S&P wave structure, but also that of the majors.

Mike McQuaid

XLF pushing to the recent 11.33 high while developing a 1-2 primary, 1-2 intermediate wave pattern. As prices push past 11.33 the XLF incrementally qualifies itself to provide the market leadership to firm up the call that SPX March 6 low was a trend reversal not just a bounce. With XLF, as invisible resistance in the 10.90's is broken the resolve to hold current long positions maintains.

Account Deleted

Whatever all this discussion about current wave structure is all about,the fact still remains tht Elliot wave has been a miserable failure in justifying the rise in S&P500 and markets worldwide since MArch09.I reallly pity ELLIOT WAVE students(myself included)as they are so miserable that they just cant look to anyone for direction as all are in the same boat.

Account Deleted

I remember my Broker often tells me...Its not ELLIOT WAVE Theory by its IDIOT WAVE THEORY

Account Deleted

I remember my Broker telling..its not ELLIOT WAVE THEORY..but its I D I O T WAVE THeory.

Big Bull

This must be the long awaited surge.

Ben B

Is this pullback going to be as reliable as Yves double liquidity sell signal?

vipul garg

if my memory serves me right both neely and prechter called for a surge till 850 atleast.. wonder who you track VB

DG

To state the obvious, if trading were easy, everyone would do it. I don't know how many times I need to repeat it on this blog, but if you are going to trade using Elliott Wave and you don't read "Mastering Elliott Wave", as well as the "Question of the Week", which is open to everyone on Neely's site, and understand all of the material thoroughly and don't keep your own ongoing charts, should you be surprised if you don't do well? Even knowing all of that, trading is still hard.

You simply can't trade Elliott Wave profitably by eyeballing a chart and looking for "five waves up, three waves down" with a few Fibonacci calculations thrown in for good measure.

Mamma Boom Boom

-----------IT'S TIME-----------

Yes folks, it's time to initiate Merlin Long's red-headed-son-in-law.

(that information was secretly brought to my window by carrier pigeon, signed by a spoonaholic paper trader)

Yves

Ben B , I dont know how far you have followed my model but here is an interesting behavior of my index. It gave a massive buy signal in july of 2006 and most investors were super bearish then.The buy stayed on until late 2007 and was great. However after a phenomenal ride up when the sell signal was issued initially people had a hard time believing we would fall.The first sell was in july 2007 and yes the market bounced to new highs after .We started raising cash past 50% and left the rise from 13400 to 14000 to the best traders.We did get a second sell signal on the 3rd of October one week before the final top but I did prefer acting on the first signal right away.This reminds me of this similar set up.I am not concerned at getting right all the small movements but only the big ones for the average investor .I try to help the little guy out there that does not have a edge against Wall Street's algo and its free.
Most people think waves have predictive value should also know that public recognition of a pattern actually lead to this not working and the recent bounce confirms that.
I will be on Bloomberg Radio next Wednesday and reveal some exciting findings plus two massive trades.

Yves

DG

Yves,

What the public thinks it sees and what is there can often be two very different things and there are various ways to trade what you think you see, some of which are better than others.

Also, we need to define "public" very carefully here. You have probably seen the analogy of the trading world to a pond, where the little fish get eaten by the slightly bigger fish, who get eaten by the even bigger fish, who get eaten by the biggest fish. The trading world, including the Elliott Wave portion of it, is not a monolith, it is an ecosystem.

In short, I don't necessarily believe in the "Schrodinger's Cat" theory of technical analysis, where observing the chart changes the outcome. A minnow "knows" when it sees a bigger fish swimming toward it that it needs to get away, but most times, it won't be able to escape.

Yves

DG , yes good analogy and I see this mostly as observing the count and comparing the sentiment out there which I think becomes self reinforcing .Let me provide a recent anecdote.Various contacts in February provided me with a picture of arrogance toward the market as if shorting now was really in vogue and it was easy to do.I got thinking about this .How could we come to the conclusion the market would fall precipitously in a 5th wave and at the same time profit handsomely the retail guys ?

Yves

kd

vb

I am as green as can be as far as Elliot Wave. Just learning the basics. 6 months ago I never heard of it. I got tired of watching my mutual funds drop day after day for a total of over $60k loss so I decided to take matters into my own hands. First couple of months I failed as a trader. I make my own decisions but since monitoring this site and reading dg, yves and the rest of the guys I am up $25K so far. Beyond making money the greatest thing I have learned is to manage risk and anticipate market direction. I am a convert. So a big thanks to the guys especially yves and dg.

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