Neely Alert - Final Rally Spurt!

Neely put an alert for hourly traders with his very useful set of limits and entry points, available to his subscribers.  He still thinks we will have a final spike up to SP950 or above, then another deep drop.  if the entry levels are hit, they would present about the last reasonable moment to try to catch that last spurt. 

Comments

[vipul garg]

DG,
those are alot of precise calculations
for me , structure alone is not enough, behaviour must be in line also

since october lows an expanding triangle is a bizarre count as wave b and d show loads of weakness .. the only way behaviour is going to be confirmed in wave E is it shows spiky behaviour and takes much longer than usual ..
as per time , usual time is up, so it must continue the trend now and show real strong upwards action..
as mr. neely says take a level where we all will start thinking of becoming bulls , market is going to get really close to that!

[Mark]

Again wrong. Futures have turned red. No spurt to 950 but a move lower. How many times will this man go wrong. This man should read his own book" master the
non- elliottwave". may be he will learn something.

[RNB]

Mark,

Neely is a buyer below the current market, thus, he is not wrong (at least not yet).

[DG]

Mark,

Anyone following Neely's advice since last October is up huge. Fact.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

Short Term, it's a tough call. 'Big Mo' is pointing south, but not yet negative. Tape acts like it wants to turn up. Neely may be right, but 950 looks a stretch. I would be happy to see a failed test of the high.

Sometimes, when you want things to go your way, you have to roll your sleeves up and start shouting profanities.

#@^%$(*_)(*%$54677$^%&^%*&*)(*&%#^%%(*_)

http://www.bushongbusiness.com/opinion.html

[Mark]

DG,
Fact is, he has no clue.
Rnb,
yes he did buy below 500 and he is long and in huge profit as DG claims.

[DG]

Mark,

At this point, I'm just going to assume you're stirring up BS just for fun.

Here is every Neely S&P Hourly trade recommendation since October

Date Winner/Loser Points/Dollars Total Gain/Loss
9-Oct W 41 41
10-Oct L -13 28
13-Oct L -59 -31
13-Oct W 118.5 87.5
16-Oct W 6.5 94
17-Oct W 21.75 115.75
20-Oct L -22 93.75
22-Oct L -32 61.75
24-Oct 0 61.75
27-Oct W 70 131.75
29-Oct L -29 102.75
29-Oct W 65.75 168.5
1-Nov W 7.5 176
7-Nov L -23.75 152.25
14-Nov L -45 107.25
21-Nov W 74.75 182
19-Dec W 2 184
6-Jan W 25 209
9-Jan W 21.25 230.25
14-Jan W 31.25 261.5
23-Jan L -38.25 223.25
30-Jan 0 223.25
9-Feb W 6 229.25
13-Feb W 13.5 242.75
17-Feb W 20.25 263
24-Feb L -6.5 256.5
10-Mar W 62.25 318.75
2-Apr L -5 313.75
20-Apr W 9 322.75
22-Apr L -8.75 314

Here are the Daily

Date Winner/Loser Points/Dollars Total Gain/Loss
9-Oct W 41 41
13-Oct L -59 -18
13-Oct W 118.5 100.5
16-Oct W 6.5 107
17-Oct W 21.75 128.75
20-Oct L -28 100.75
22-Oct L -39 61.75
24-Oct 0 61.75
27-Oct W 46 107.75
29-Oct W 65.75 173.5
7-Nov L -23.75 149.75
21-Nov W 74.75 224.5
19-Dec L -27 197.5
6-Jan W 25 222.5
9-Jan W 61.25 283.75
30-Jan 0 283.75
9-Feb W 6 289.75
11-Feb W 17 306.75
17-Feb W 24.125 330.875
24-Feb W 4.75 335.625
10-Mar W 93.5 429.125
2-Apr L -5 424.125
20-Apr W 9 433.125
22-Apr L -26.25 406.875

And here are the Weekly:

Date Winner/Loser Points/Dollars Total Gain/Loss
9-Oct W 41 41
10-Oct L -15.5 25.5
13-Oct L -59 -33.5
13-Oct W 118.5 85
16-Oct W 6.5 91.5
17-Oct L -19 72.5
20-Oct L -33 39.5
22-Oct L -68 -28.5
24-Oct 0 -28.5
27-Oct W 46 17.5
29-Oct W 65.75 83.25
7-Nov L -23.75 59.5
8-Dec L -3 56.5
19-Dec W 66.5 123
9-Jan W 61.25 184.25
30-Jan 0 184.25
9-Feb W 6 190.25
11-Feb W 17 207.25
17-Feb W 97.5 304.75
10-Mar W 83.5 388.25
2-Apr L -5 383.25
22-Apr L -27 356.25

If you couldn't make money following these recommendations, you have some serious issues and probably shouldn't be trading. If you have your own recommendations and made more money than this, that's great, but doesn't in any way imply that Neely "has no clue". I'm sure there are some traders, somewhere, who made more than Neely has since October, but they probably aren't charging $45/month for their services or they are just following their own methods and trading their own account with no fanfare. Unless you fall into one of the latter groups, you've got nothing. Fact.

[Upstart]

If the correction is over, it finished exactly to the point, at the 50% retracement of the rally out of the triangle in the DOW that ended on 4/28.

[Glenn Loser Neely.]

Yelnick,

Please delete all the posts that are bashing my neo garbage service.
I do not want to cancel your free subscription!

Glenn Loser Neely

[Mark]

DG how sweet. He must be analyzing intraday, trading daily and making profits weekly.

[DG]

Mark,

I thought that'd be about the level of your response.

If you have anything of substance to say or any facts, now would be a good time to contribute them to the conversation. I'm getting tremendously bored over here.

[Glenn Loser Neely.]

NEoGarbage Institute is proud to announce the recent opening of its new toilet...(upss sorry! I mean office) on Park Avenue in Manhattan’s business district. The addition of our East Coast toilet-office is in preparation for future loser-money-management projects. Watch for details, to be announced later this year if we get 10 more subscibers during the next 6 months.

Thank you for your loyal support and patronage!

Glenn Loser Neely

[Mark]

why are you so bored? You must be loaded with your shrots now? Enjoy.

[DG]

No, the shorts are great. I'm bored with the Neely-bashing. It's just so petty.

[Mark]

oh Neely-bashing! then I cant help you.

[DG]

Yes, those who can't help themselves rarely can help others.

Every Neely-bashing technique's already been used on this site, though, which is what makes it so boring. I haven't seen you post before and already you sound like a broken record like our long-time resident Neely-basher and all-around maniac Glenn Loser Neely.

[Mark]

why should we not bash Neely?when he is so ashamedly bashing a theory invented by R.N. Elliott on his website and then with inflated ego claims his theory is real elliott wave. I refuse to accept his theory an elliott wave theory and therefore call it not neo-wave but non-wave theory.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

--------LOSER-------
Your a pretty funny guy, you should be on stage.

--------DG-----------
Why the thin skin? Is no one permitted to have an opinion?

Signed
Your friend, Sneddzie!

[Rob]

I predict that 950 will be reached on or about June 5th. The current correction will be over on or about May 20th. The following high will be between July 15th and July 17th. There is a significant Bradley model turn date on July 15th and McHugh has a phi-mate turn date on July 17th, which should be the top of wave (3) of 3. The rally will not run its course until sometime in September, then batten down the hatches.

[vipul garg]

WELL SAID NED !
(OR WAS IT FRED)

meanwhile LOSER NEELY, Entertain us with something novel mate ... its a boring act everytime to put garbage and toilet in neely's words and post them..just write 'do' next time ..we ll all undertand and laugh for ur sake
prechter already runs sociology, economics etc classes , he ll start language classes pretty soon... join them
i can confidently say that your language will get much better

btw,
we r all traders here .. write something that helps on that front...

[vipul garg]

DG,
are u saying( in your records of neely recos) that on every time frame theres has been a gain of over 300 points since october?thats really super

you have a flair for data and stats..keep it up mate

[DG]

Ned,

I wouldn't dignify what Mark is spewing with the word "opinion". It's verbal diarrhea and mindless bashing. It's not quite as pathetic as GLN, but it's not much less pathetic, either.

Mark,

All Neely has said is that Elliott's theories were incomplete and that the market continues to evolve. Neely thinks other Elliott practitioners have failed to consider a variety of items and remain closed off to the idea that Elliott may not have discovered every aspect of market behavior, taking into account the fact that the market continues to evolve. Your accusation of "egotism" could easily be applied to someone like Einstein (I am not saying Neely is an equivalent to Einstein), who went against the Newtonian views of his day. The proof, as always, is in the pudding and Neely's recommendations have proven very accurate over the years. Having studied both Elliott and NeoWave, I can't see why someone would use Elliott over NeoWave.

vipul,

Yes, over 300 points on all time frames. I am pretty sure that Neely is in the top tier of all market timers over that time frame.

[Hank Wernicki]

2:48 pm

Near 880 STOP is an attraction point << for a test on a bottom ...

IF IT HOLDS , THEN A SCREAMING BUY -- Monday

15 minute chart .. Wednesday's Parent Fractal

[Mamma Boom Boom]

--------I don't know, boys and girls--------

Can this hog get it up to diddle the sow again. It's a real nail biter.

Just a couple points from filling the gap (off topic: when I was young I could fill the gap all day and all night long) I think we need to be very alert come Monday. You know....

[Mark]

DG,
it is your and Neely's wishful and misjudged thinking built on false premises that Elliott theories were incomplete. The fact is contrary to that notion.Sure his ego would have invented Non-Einsteinism like his non-wave analysis and turned theory of relativity upside down and claim what an improved theory he had invented, so relativity cannot explain subtleties of mass energy equation.

[DG]

Mark,

Uh, yeah, OK. Dude, this isn't theology, it's market analysis. Either you make money from it or you don't.

Unless your last name is Elliott and you're trying to preserve some family legacy, I strongly suggest you get with the program and start trading using NeoWave.

[Elliottistician]

I hate NeoWave. I love Elliott. I respect Neely and I like what he's trying to do but I love Elliott and I try not to be a hypocrite.

I have made money off of Neely and Prechter but not tons. I make more money doing my own analysis, which is a blend of Neely and Prechter with a little McHugh tossed in. I also like Carolan.

If you are going to trade for a living you need to read Neely and Prechter and get a feel for what they are seeing. If you can see what they can, then you already have more on the ball than half the people who don't read them at all.

Prechter doesn't seem to appreciate what Neely did. That's fine. (Newton wasn't even alive to see what Einstein did!) But I have to say it really pisses me off when people diss Prechter for dissing Neely. Hello! Anyone heard of a little book called "Elliott Wave Theorist"??? Prechter put Elliott on the map and Elliott made Prechter what he is: A deceitful, often useless, but always worthy adversary to Neely.

Count the waves, do your homework, and stick to the basics. Neely is fine. Precter sometimes if better, but usually not. Look at the work Puetz does and Carolan and take a gander at a little gentleman called Richard Russell before he keels over in his final Supercycle. They will show you the way.

Don't be too proud to be humble. Change your techniques if your strategy sucks. But don't give up on the basics: Homework, homework, homework.

This is a fascinating market. I think it's not unlikely that the top of this latest upwave is crescendo-ing into a long and very unpredictable plateau. Is there money to be made in puts? You bet, but you might have to sell them against a long reverse straddle! In other words: Watch out below but let the trendlines guide you upward if they scream "Up!"

Good luck to all.

[Forkoholic Serge of Elliott Wave Forkology]

Escaping the fork, saga continues Elliott Wave Forkology Update May 15th

Today SPX was trying to escape the fork, and made a run for it in the morning. SWAT Team was dispatched and heavy battle begun but resolved fairly quickly. We did cross red warning line setup yesterday, but it was not meant to be and we returned back to the fork's upper line(under arrest in handcuffs). Spent the rest of the day(in jail) following fork's upper line down with some bounce at eod. This is typical for corrective price action.

Looking at daily SPX we can suggest a run to 840-860 area if it is zig-zag down or we can stay in 870-900ish area if it is flat correction. This potentially could be a triangle as well.

And now the fun part! Our resent poll indicated completely devastating illiteracy of trading public about Elliott Wave Theory as you can see as many at 49% don't even know what it is :) lol Interesting how gurus at EWI would answer this question. Anyway majority believes it is less than 50% when both Wave A and C are impulsive in an ABC correction. But disturbingly 11% believes it is over 85%. So the question remains for statistical researcher - in actuallity what's the answer to that question. My guess it should be less than 25%

As many readers remember our proprietary $NYMO-based cyclical model, which started around beginning of this Bear market in 2007 is still functioning well. Although we already experienced 2 shifts in the cycle bottoms we still use it til it breakes. It clearly rolled over and we're for a journey to some sort of a low at around mid June to late July early August timeframe, considering cycle shifts. The only problem we see is STO and MACD is already very close to bottoming levels.
http://forkoholic.spaces.live.com

[vipul garg]

i have no doubt that any person neely's Mastering Elliott Wave is the most seminal book on technical analysis to have come out.any person who has read it diligently will forever acknoweledge this .
and what ego man, in 70% of his updates he himself admits he has less clue of what the market is doing in short term..when you see markets like he sees,and you can say that to your subscribers, i ll call it humility .

prechter did popularise elliott.granted .he is a good read.period.for a trader he has zilch utility.
if you want to spend 10 years and above catching a grand supercycle top or bottom !!! and then say you caught 800 pts of SP500 in doing that .. keep up with prechter.

[DG]

Back to things that matter for trading.

Although the short trade entered yesterday is working so far, we need to make more progress to the downside on Monday. If we aren't under 84.96 on the SPY by 12:06 Eastern Time, I'm out.

That strategy is based on the fact that the largest and fastest (although not largest) correction during the move from the end of April to the recent high took place from April 17th to April 21st and took 7 78-minute time periods. I'm also assuming that the last wave of that formation ended yesterday morning at 90.00 SPY, rather than the prior day's high of 90.12.

If that doesn't happen, it might be that wave f of the diametric is still going or that my count is wrong and I will need to stand aside. We'll see if the end of day strength was options-related or a real turn back up.

[vipul garg]

the short term correction is an expanding triangle since the highs of may7( and not may08) and the wave E of that expansion is ending anytime soon.a move above 8460 on dow will be a strong buy ..

[Upstart]

50% retrace of the rally out of the April triangle in the DOW didn't hold. If the .618 holds (8186), we may get the final spurt. We closed 82 points north of there, so Monday may tell the tale. Again, a break of where E of the triangle ended (7938) is absolute confirmation of the top.

[Mike McQuaid]

The S&P500 shows a recent top on May 8. On a 30 minute chart back up 5 impulsive waves and land at the low on April 28. Then stretch the fib retracement across this time frame to see the golden mean touched Friday. This chart shows 112 impulse candles followed by 67 correction candles, right at the golden mean once again. This hidden support will offer timely guidance as to the near term bias as the chart unfolds Monday. Tha 50dma is up while we got a 20ema tag the last two days and since the recent top the volume landscape was going down, so the uptrend may prevail until a clear topping candle appears.

[DG]

There is no way that one could count the corrective overlapping slop from May 1st to May 8th as impulsive and stick to any kind of rules.

Just a couple of questions about that count:

1. Where does wave 1 of iii end? Does it end at the May 4th top? Well, then wave 4 of iii can only be the May 7th low and that overlaps with wave 1. Overlapping waves 1 and 4 is an automatic no-no to an impulse count.

2. If wave 1 of iii ends below the May 4th high to avoid the wave 4 overlap, that means wave 2 of iii was a running correction, so why isn't wave 3 of iii the extended wave (i.e., goes further and faster than wave 1), rather than a bunch of overlapping crap? With a running correction wave 2 of iii, wave 3 of iii should have been at least 1.618 times wave 1, assuming wave 1 went from 87.13 SPY to 90.06 SPY, which means wave 3 of iii should have gone to at least 94.09 SPY, but only went to 93.15 SPY.

That count is just plain wrong, because neither of those questions has a good answer.

Why people insist on calling whatever biased crap they think is going on "Elliott Wave" is EXACTLY what gives Elliott Wave a bad name. Just call what you're doing "Mcquave" and spare Elliott the bad rep.

[DG]

Per that last post, even if you count the move from May 1st to May 7th as the complete wave 3, there is no way that wave iii of that wave isn't the shortest.

Wave 1 of iii is at least from 87.13 to 89.9 SPY (2.77 points)

Wave 3 of iii is at most from 89.94 to 91.74 SPY (1.8 points), otherwise you have overlap with wave 4, if you start wave 3 at 89.35 and end wave 1 of iii at 90.94.

Wave 5 of iii is at least from 91.26 (if you assume a running correction wave 4) to 93.15 SPY (1.89 points).

Again, this is one of those counts that seems reasonable on the surface, but has fundamental flaws when you dig a little deeper.

[vipul garg]

if one counts a move from may07 as impulsive , one really needs to revisit a lot of things.
a random walk on the wall street will be a much better idea.

[jfp]

I don't know why everyone's fighting over whether Neely or Prechter is better. Truth is markets in the short-term are always uncertain. They're both right in the big picture.

[DG]

I don't know why everyone's fighting over whether Neely or Prechter is better. Truth is markets in the short-term are always uncertain. They're both right in the big picture.

Posted by: jfp | Sunday, May 17, 2009 at 12:44 PM

Honestly, I'd like readers of this blog to make some money, including myself. I also agree with something Neely wrote in Mastering Elliott Wave:

"Refusing to believe a market could outwit me, I believed with enough time and work the Theory could be reduced to a scientific approach where all market action could be explained and most future action could be anticipated. My purpose was to eliminate any subjectivity in the analysis process, therefore allowing rational, logical trading decisions to prevail."

[EN]

The recent spurt down is a classic rejection of the January highs, which clustered nicely around the 200 day MA on deeply overbought conditions.

I got a daily sell signal last tuesday based on my simple minded trend trading method for adult morons (or children under 5).

Calling for a quick spurt up to 950 is very bold. I am sure old Neely will have a tight stop on this one if he does go long. Neely is very intelligent and he is quick to get out when he is wrong.

Should be an interesting week ahead.

Good wishes to all!

[Upstart]

Very interesting, because Carl Futia is also looking for 952 in the e-mini, with the correction maybe not over until 865.

[Tartan]

Is anyone acting upon Neely's emergency update buy from last week? We are now at his recommended entry level.

[DG]

Tartan,

This might come through as a double post, but I am not acting on that recommendation.

Above 90.12 SPY or the equivalent futures price, I might be a buyer. As much as I have the utmost respect for Neely, I think he is wrong here.

[Oldtimer]

Ho hum. The markets haven't shut down yet, not even for an hour. The drop from 07 to March was angina, Bernake fed the patient some more ribs and fries. MI to come.

[Tartan]

DG,

I decided to act on this buy. I told myself that I would act on all recommendations when I subscribed - so I will take the wins with the losses.

But, I do think that there is a good chance that he is wrong here.

[Oldtimer]

Maybe he'll send out an emergency bulletin or something on the futures tomw.

In general, I think it's a good policy not to second guess the "expert" but just keep your bets small small small

[DG]

Tartan,

Well, as long as I can get out of my short from Friday with a profit or break-even (I set out my downside criteria on one of these threads yesterday), I'd be glad to see this buy work out for you. Neely's recommended stop is just under 850, as I remember, so we can test that and give me a profit, then rocket upward and give you a profit.

See, I'm not a selfish guy!

[Tom]

I am with DG in standing aside on this trade. Neely himself said he is staying out which I can't recall him doing before since I've subscribed to his service. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce here, but I don't see it going up that high.

[KRG]

Vipul

The 3812 level on Nifty was blown away by Congress party this mrng...Do you think 4250 will hold? Or is this the middle of 3!!

Cheers

[vipul garg]

KRG,
as discussed last time, market has to go to a level where everyone becomes bullish and all technical analysis begins to fall apart ..i was hoping 4000 would go..but not in this way certainly!!
at lower levels i didnt know of anyone who was buying in retail, they were selling what they never had sold since 21000 peak. .. i think at these levels no one can short and secondly everyone in retail, public, institutions will be foced to buy.. essential conditions for a market turning point...
lets see.. even if market has to reverse it will have to take a couple of weeks .

[vipul garg]

KRG,
looking at targets , mine is 4700-4750.