Wave 4 Update

We have been tracking an alt count where we are in or have just ended wave (4), which either started back in Nov21 and has done a running flat (B wave lower than start), or Mar6.  Yves laid out the Nov21 count, and this chart from Robin Landry lays out the Mar6 count.  

Here is his comment:

Since this is end of the quarter I thought I would send a chart showing my longer term wave count. I have read many articles and heard much on TV that the economy has hit bottom, the worst is behind us and we are on the road to recovery. The technical picture says that is not likely. The idea that you can spend more than you make and not end up broke is insane, yet our government thinks that they can do just that, and are trying to convince the citizenry that they should continue to spend, spend, spend. 

The chart below is a weekly chart of the Dow and the channel you see is a 2 standard deviation trend channel. This channel usually contains the decline until a change in direction. The wave count I show is:  we are in a wave 4 bounce, with a wave 5 down still ahead of us. The target for wave 5 is the 4400 area. That would then be the end of wave 1 in my count, and the largest rally we have seen so far would occur over the next year. 

I have been saying the target for the wave 4 top is the 9700 area and so far we have failed to reach that level. If this decline shows itself to be corrective and does not decline much below the 7800 then a rally to the 9700 area is still possible. My concern now is we may not reach that level, and could already be heading down in the 5th wave. If so then the decline that started from the 6/11/09 top will turn out to be impulsive over the next week or so.

I will monitor it very closely and let you know if it appears that the wave 4 top is already in. 

I am aware that many Elliott Wave technicians have the wave count as having finished a large wave 1 down at the March 09 low, but the indicators I use to confirm the wave count do not agree. Every time the wave count from others, disagrees with the count I have using the indicators I have used since 1974, my count has turned out to be the correct one. Could this time be different? Of course, but until I know it is wrong, I am not going to deviate from the count that they confirm.  

The main thing I want to convey to all my readers is that I believe the lows are not in, and appropriate action should be taken to prepare for further decline in the markets and the economy.
  

E. Robin Landry

Comments

[Thor's Hammer]

Thanks for this.

Why 4400?

[anon_aka_TERA BAAP]

PLEASE explain what went WRONG when we reach new ALL-TIME highs..in this GRAND wave 3 UP

TERA BAAP

[anon. idiot, why can't you draw your own chart with basis.]

you mean "if"?

anon. idiot, why can't you draw your own chart with basis.

[DG]

anon,

It's painfully obvious you don't have the first clue about anything wave-related. Stick to your Obama, Geithner, Bernanke cheerleading. At least you know how to suck up to them better than you know how to count waves.

[vipul garg]

if we finish wave 1 at 4400 levels, then on simple extrapolation in coming times( years) we are headed for sub 2000 kind of levels on dow!
the potential problems with this count is: wave 1 (in blue circle) is as big as wave 1 in plain blue though it is bigger in degree.
wave 4 in plain blue is bigger than wave 2 in blue circle though it is of smaller degree.
wave 4 in plain blue is shorter than wave iv though it is larger degree.
so lot of degree issues in nested waves here.apart from the fact that it points to depression era levels for usa.(90% off the top)

[I'm calling bull here]

I think anon is bearish but trying not to jinx things, and possibly trying to foment bearishness, so he posts contarily and exuberantly.

His posts and the responses to them seem like Hearst's Examiner and its critics.

[DG]

If by "Hearst's Examiner and its critics" you mean "an insane lunatic and people trying to talk him down from the ledge before he loses all the money he's allegedly made in the bull run since March", then I agree 100%.

[Dog Whisperer]

CA stands for cellular automata.

Big leg down beginning around 2:20pm today. It's now 1:03.

[Sean]

Who is Robin Laundry. Is he that good for over 2 decades? If so, then why Precther and Neely still in business, according to his quotes below?

"Every time the wave count from others, disagrees with the count I have using the indicators I have used since 1974, my count has turned out to be the correct one"

I mean, I like the confidence here, but this is the first time I heard about him and his predictions. Anyone know his record compared to Precther and Neely? Thanks

[Upstart]

I like Whisperer's precision!

[vipul garg]

Sean,
i quite like what you saying.means with a faulty count himself, he says quite emphatically that others are wrong .

" Every time the wave count from others, disagrees with the count I have using the indicators I have used since 1974, my count has turned out to be the correct one. Could this time be different? "

35 years of correct wave counting.!!
it seems that almost everyone really believes that market moves up or down in impulses!

[Upstart]

T-minus 8 minutes, and counting.

[DG]

I like Whisperer's precision!

Posted by: Upstart | Wednesday, July 01, 2009 at 10:47 AM

Precise is better than vague.

I am always more inclined to say "If this doesn't happen by time X, then do Y" rather than "Do Y, because this will happen by time X". The latter is riskier. I realize Dog Whisperer didn't say anything about "do Y".

[rudraksh]

Anyone saw this clip about market manipulation on bloomberg ?

http://www.zerohedge.com/node/12085

[elskid]

Hey, Dog Whisperer

Lets hope it continues. I got short earlier but not confident - looking to get "break-even plus" stop on tomorrow

BUY DXD $46.9095 C2BB820090701 7/1/2009 12:38:54 PM 7/7/2009

[Dog Whisperer]

Okay, okay. If I'm wrong then do Y.

I was wrong. But not badly wrong, I don't think. Dow down 24 since 2:20.

Anyway, no more predictions. I'm superstitious about introducing feedback. Best!

[elskid]

I don't know what you were expecting, but good follow thru tomorrow will be good for us both, unless you tapped out.

[Ted]

"Okay, okay. If I'm wrong then do Y".

very funny.

"Anyway, no more predictions".

no no predictions are fine as long as there are basis.

[Watcher]

Dog Whisperer,

It still fell. That's not so bad. And it was fun to watch. What was the basis for your call?

[TObject]

>Who is Robin Laundry.

Sean,
Robin Landry is illegitimate son of Terry Landry, the "T"-Theory guy ;-)

[Dog Whisperer]

I'll hope for follow through. I think we will see it. I am long puts at the moment.

Basis? Some goofy stuff I've been doing with computational models. They are crude!

[Wave Rust]

Activate the Landry fade trade again. Called for Dow 770 on May 22, 2009,,, just a google will tell lots.

I can't remember him being right over the last 10 years. If he's managing hundreds of millions, it just proves being right isn't that important.

Scaring people is important if you want to manage their money.

wave rust

[anon_aka_TERA BAAP]

TOMORROW we have the monthly NON-farm payroll report...

WHEN was the last time we had a GOvernment report..

that did not SLAUGHTER the shorts???

TOmorrow i suspect that NEELY will require PROCTOLOGIST to remove BULL HORNS which will be FIRMLY THRUST into his RECTUM!!!!

hopefully he willhave INSURANCE CARD because he will need SPECIALIST!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horn_(anatomy)

HAHAHHAHAHAHAH

[elskid]

Well I will have to agree with you, Anon. I wonder what effect the Calif IOU debacle will have? I am just happy to get break even stop on and see what happens

[anon IDIOT]

anon IDIOT

TOMORROW we have the monthly NON-farm payroll report...

WHEN was the last time we had a GOvernment report..

that did not SLAUGHTER the shorts???

TOmorrow i suspect that NEELY will require PROCTOLOGIST to remove BULL HORNS which will be FIRMLY THRUST into his RECTUM!!!!

hopefully he willhave INSURANCE CARD because he will need SPECIALIST!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horn_(anatomy)

HAHAHHAHAHAHAH

Posted by: anon_aka_TERA BAAP | Wednesday, July 01, 2009 at 08:49 PM

[elskid]

Alright, "breakeven plus" stop on! The day can proceed anyway it wants now. Hope this is the steep decline you were looking for Dog.

[elskid]

Can't believe my stop survived to this point. Moved it to lock in about 5%.

Dog? Your tail should be wagging.

[Wavist]

it seems that almost everyone really believes that market moves up or down in impulses!

If by everyone you are referring to followers of Elliott then that is unsurprising, considering that that was Elliott's entire claim.

[DG]

If by everyone you are referring to followers of Elliott then that is unsurprising, considering that that was Elliott's entire claim.

My sense is that what vipul was referring to was the tendency to label moves with impulsive labeling, rather than trying first to label a move as corrective. I know that vipul is a practitioner of NeoWave and from the logic of NeoWave time rules, which require corrective moves to be anywhere from 2 to 4 times as long as impulsive moves, this comment makes sense.

Also, since most of these impulsively labeled waves do not follow the Essential Construction Rules of Chapter 5 in "Mastering Elliott Wave", one can also rule out impulsive labeling on that score, unless there is something wrong with the essential rules. I have asked the question before of what, specifically, people think Neely got wrong with his essential rules of impulse construction and get no response.

Either the essential rules are right and hardly any of the stuff labeled impulsive actually is or they are wrong and there are more impulse waves happening than Neely thinks. If wave analysis is going to be anything more than just a subjective exercise in bias confirmation, hard and fast rules need to be applied to market action.

[vipul garg]

wavist,
it is incorrect to say that elliott entire claim was that markets moves up or down in impulses.
in direction of larger degree trend , market moves more often that not in impulses but not on every degree which is why the concept of degree is so important.so lets assume on a larger degree we may be in wave 2/4 (part of impulsion but corrective ), on a smaller degree we may be in wave a(of a-b-c) of this wave 2/4 which is corrective.

one has to analyse the environment one is in, corrective or trending , what logic and implications each rule indicates and then make a call.

here in my comment , i was specifically speaking about robin landry's wave count.

[Al from Oz]

E. Robin Landry
Thats a much better wave count.
Notice S&P500 and Oil have concurrently toped.
Wave 4 (complex wave to the side not worth trading has now formed/completed) is correctly labled. Wave 5 will take out previous lows in both Oil and DOW and S&P500. Enter shorts on rallies. (Personally if I were a politician I would like to have my shorts on before I went to a rally).
Cheers
Al from Oz