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« Neely Calls the Top | Main | Where Markets Go From Here »

Friday, June 19, 2009

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anon_aka_TERA BAAP

DG..

you seem to be HUGE FAN of NEELY...let me ASSURE to you..that NEELY is a CLOWN

his knowledge of ECON is lacking...he is BULLISH on GOLD..but calling for DEFLATION in markets and Economy??????

it is IMPOSSIBLE..for MARKETS to rally, the LIQUIDITY must be INCREASED!! This is why YVES is also a CLOWN..because BERNANKE has control of LIQUIDITY..

IF markets are to CRASH as NEELY says, then how can GOLD go UP????

I am looking for new ALL-TIME HIGHS on SPX and GOLD...both will see 2000 minimum...

i will NOT charge SUBSCRIPTON fee for this advise..

TERA BAAP

ANON IDIOT!

IF markets are to CRASH as NEELY says, then how can GOLD go UP????

ANON. YOU ARE A WORTHLESS PIECE OF SHIT, IDIOT! YOU NEED BRAIN CELLS.

DG

I am looking for new ALL-TIME HIGHS on SPX and GOLD...both will see 2000 minimum...

I just want to know the answers to two questions, so that when you're wrong, everyone who reads this blog will know you're wrong:

1. What time frame are you talking about? Even I agree there will eventually be a time at which the S&P and Gold trade above 2000.

2. What price on the downside will be the point at which you will admit you are wrong?

Your faith in Bernanke is touching, but Neely still has the better track record.

These are the idiots you think are going to take the market higher:

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/confidence-game-in-quotes.html

The Confidence Game In Quotes
Posted by Tyler Durden at 7:01 PM
Austrian Filter has taken the time to put together all the relevant quotes over the past 2 years that demonstrate how profoundly Bernanke and Paulson have been misrepresenting (or simply misunderstanding) just how extensive the crisis we are in, is. One can only imagine why anyone would ever believe anything Ben Bernanke (or any other vapid disseminator of groundless optimism) has to say anymore, after two years of outright hyperbole and unfounded green shootery.

February 28, 2007 - Dow Jones @ 12,268

March 13th, 2007 – Henry Paulson: “the fallout in subprime mortgages is "going to be painful to some lenders, but it is largely contained."

March 28th, 2007 – Ben Bernanke: "At this juncture . . . the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained,"

March 30, 2007 - Dow Jones @ 12,354

April 20th, 2007 – Paulson: "I don't see (subprime mortgage market troubles) imposing a serious problem. I think it's going to be largely contained." , "All the signs I look at" show "the housing market is at or near the bottom,"

April 30, 2007 - Dow Jones @ 13,063

May 17th, 2007 – Bernanke: “While rising delinquencies and foreclosures will continue to weigh heavily on the housing market this year, it will not cripple the U.S.”

May 31, 2007 - Dow Jones @ 13,627

June 20th, 2007 – Bernanke: (the subprime fallout) ``will not affect the economy overall.''

July 12th, 2007 – Paulson: "This is far and away the strongest global economy I've seen in my business lifetime."

August 1st, 2007 – Paulson: "I see the underlying economy as being very healthy,"

October 15th, 2007 – Bernanke: "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve - nor would it be appropriate - to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions."

December 31, 2007 - Dow Jones @ 13,265

January 31, 2008 - Dow Jones @ 12,650

February 14th, 2008 – Paulson: (the economy) "is fundamentally strong, diverse and resilient."

February 28th, 2008 – Paulson: "I'm seeing a series of ideas suggested involving major government intervention in the housing market, and these things are usually presented or sold as a way of helping homeowners stay in their homes. Then when you look at them more carefully what they really amount to is a bailout for financial institutions or Wall Street."

February 29th, 2008 – Bernanke: "I expect there will be some failures. I don't anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system."

March 16th, 2008 – Paulson: "We've got strong financial institutions . . . Our markets are the envy of the world. They're resilient, they're...innovative, they're flexible. I think we move very quickly to address situations in this country, and, as I said, our financial institutions are strong."

March 18th, 2008 - Bear Stearns Bailout Announced

May 7, 2008 – Paulson: 'The worst is likely to be behind us,”

May 16th, 2008 – Paulson: "In my judgment, we are closer to the end of the market turmoil than the beginning," he said.

May 30, 2008 - Dow Jones @ 12,638

June 9th, 2008 – Bernanke: Despite a recent spike in the nation's unemployment rate, the danger that the economy has fallen into a "substantial downturn" appears to have waned,

July 16th, 2008 – Bernanke: (Freddie and Fannie) “…will make it through the storm”, "… in no danger of failing.","…adequately capitalized"

July 20th, 2008 – Paulson: "it's a safe banking system, a sound banking system. Our regulators are on top of it. This is a very manageable situation."

July 31, 2008 - Dow Jones @ 11,378

August 10th, 2008 – Paulson: ``We have no plans to insert money into either of those two institutions.” (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac)

September 8th, 2008 - Fannie and Freddie nationalized. The taxpayer is on the hook for an estimated 1 - 1.5 trillion dollars. Over 5 trillion is added to the nation’s balance sheet.

September 16th, 2008 - $85 Billion AIG Bailout “Loan”

September 19th, 2008 - $700 Billion Bailout Plan Announced

September 19th, 2008 – Paulson: "We're talking hundreds of billions of dollars - this needs to be big enough to make a real difference and get at the heart of the problem," he said. "This is the way we stabilize the system."

September 19th, 2008 - Bernanke: "most severe financial crisis" in the post-World War II era. Investment banks are seeing "tremendous runs on their cash," Bernanke said. "Without action, they will fail soon."

September 21st, 2008 – Paulson: "The credit markets are still very fragile right now and frozen", "We need to deal with this and deal with it quickly.", "The financial security of all Americans ... depends on our ability to restore our financial institutions to a sound footing."

September 23rd, 2008 – Paulson: "We must [enact a program quickly] in order to avoid a continuing series of financial institution failures and frozen credit markets that threaten American families' financial well-being, the viability of businesses, both small and large, and the very health of our economy,"

September 23rd, 2008 – Bernanke: "My interest is solely for the strength and recovery of the U.S. economy,"

October 31, 2008 - Dow Jones @ 9,337

March 31, 2009 - Dow Jones @ 7,609

Austrian Filter conlcudes correctly: "If Bernanke and Paulson were doctors, and our economy was the patient, they would be in jail for malpractice."

Mark

Ned
I was active in the earlier half when AlexB was active.There used to be very good discussions and analysis.

anon_aka_TERA BAAP

1. What time frame are you talking about? Even I agree there will eventually be a time at which the S&P and Gold trade above 2000.

WITHIN next couple years Probably by END of 2010....

2. What price on the downside will be the point at which you will admit you are wrong?

I will be LONG and BULLISH wherever the BOTTOM may Lie !!

DG since you are Smart and Neely Advocate, Please reconciLe how come the GOLD can go UP, while SPX collapses below 500??? Next Neely will say VIX to go to 10??

He does NOT understand Correlations..or economICS???

HOW can one predict DEFLATIOn and be Bullish on GOLD? EVEn PRECHTER is not so stupid??

vipul garg

as the famous saying goes,
people who buy options should not look at end of 2010 time frame.


DG

DG since you are Smart and Neely Advocate, Please reconciLe how come the GOLD can go UP, while SPX collapses below 500??? Next Neely will say VIX to go to 10??

He does NOT understand Correlations..or economICS???

First of all, Neely's call on Gold is much more short-term than long-term. He is not a big Gold bull and, in fact, his forecast can easily be fulfilled by a simple new high in Gold.

Secondly, you seem to be assuming that correlations are static. Look at the time series data for any two highly correlated assets and you will find fluctuations. When one is operating withing the normal distribution, such fluctuations stay within fairly tight ranges, but in the "tails" those correlations can either strengthen or weaken beyond the normal variations seen on other occasions.

I will be LONG and BULLISH wherever the BOTTOM may Lie !!

OK. I'll join you in your bullishness around 500 on the S&P. This statement is so generic it's meaningless.

I thought you were a trader. This statement makes you sound like a "buy and hold" or "dollar-cost average" investor. Both of which are valid styles, but aren't really related to anything I've been discussing with you this entire time.

Upstart

DG, it's all good. I haven't been saying Neely is a good fade. I know little about him, except that by what everyone says on here he sounds like one of the best analysts around. I don't know what he will say this weekend. I was remarking that I think the top is in, and if he and all these other cats flip back to bullish, I like my chances.

DG

I know little about him, except that by what everyone says on here he sounds like one of the best analysts around. I don't know what he will say this weekend. I was remarking that I think the top is in, and if he and all these other cats flip back to bullish, I like my chances.

Look, I know it's just a blog, but the logic of this post makes no sense.

To use an analogy, let's say I lived in a city where the weatherman, according to an objective measure of weatherman accuracy (let's call it "Weathermans Digest"), was the most accurate weatherman in the country. I heard he was forecasting rain and that was also my forecast. Why on earth would I then say, "If the weatherman changes his forecast to sun, then I'll be more confident that it will rain"?

Huh? Shouldn't I be happy that my forecast for rain matches his forecast for rain, since he's acknowledged as the most accurate weatherman? Also, why would I lump in the most accurate weatherman with other weathermen, as you have done here by lumping Neely in with other forecasters?

Maybe it's just me, but I like to say things that are logical, even if I'm just posting a message on a message board.

Wavist

I was remarking that I think the top is in, and if he and all these other cats flip back to bullish, I like my chances.

I cannot see why if more analysts are bullish the bearish count becomes more likely correct. Unless a particular analyst has a track record of getting the majority of his calls wrong, in which case you could argue that he has shown an aptitude for misreading the markets.

Mamma Boom Boom

>>Ned I was active in the earlier half when AlexB was active.There used to be very good discussions and analysis.<<

Ok, and you went by Mark? I wasn't there in the beginning, but soon after and was there when Alex was active, seems like several years. Yes, we used to have some very good technical discussions, there were some good wave counters around there. When Alex shut it down, many of them come over to my site. Example: http://www.bushongbusiness.com/webbbs/index.cgi?noframes;page=36 I finally pulled the plug on it last fall, it had deteriorated to mostly fools. If there were some good technicians around I might start it up again. Do you remember 'whipsaw"? He died last year. There was one of the best wave counters around. Anyway, I'm happy that you remembered me.

Wavist

That Indian chap raises a genuine contradiction here: Neely predicted deflation last year only because "NEoWave "tells us" Gold began a bear market at the high in 2008 that will last 4-6 years eventually dropping below $500....my fundamental forecasts...are NOT based on a linear extrapolation of current news and information, but are my GUESS of what must change to make the implications of wave structure come true...As Gold was topping early this year, inflation and high international demand were universally trumpeted as the causes. If Gold is going to decline from this year's high for the next 4-6 years and drop below $500 (which wave structure requires), then the "opposite" of inflation (deflation) and decreasing demand (i.e., a slowing international economy) are likely to be the fundamental realities near the low 4-6 years from now."

As he has since abandoned his bearish wave count on gold I can see no good reason for him to continue to expect deflation.

qwall

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Robert%20Prechter%20Sees%20a%20%60Lot%20More%27%20Bear%20Market%2C%20Deflation&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vjP_4O1wOz_0.asf

DG

As he has since abandoned his bearish wave count on gold I can see no good reason for him to continue to expect deflation.

Posted by: Wavist | Saturday, June 27, 2009 at 01:59 PM

That's not an entirely accurate representation of Neely's current Gold count. The market didn't do exactly what he thought it would, clearly, but his view on deflation has become more of a timing issue rather than a "will it happen" issue. It doesn't mean he can't end up wrong, either way, but to say that he's abandoned his bigger picture bearish count on Gold is not accurate.

Wavist

Neely's largest timescale analysis published to date was his last monthly forecast which didn't anticipate action beyond an upward expansion through to the end of 09. So when you say that his long-term analysis remains bearish I assume that you are extrapolating beyond Neely's own forecasts from the larger count. What sort of timescale would Neowave imply then? And as deflation can't be the cause of a stock market collapse this year as Neely originally suggested, perhaps that might also occur later next year instead as this could still be squeezed into the timeframe provided by his last S&P Monthly Forecast.

Wavist

And it would at least be accurate to say then that Neely abandoned his PUBLISHED bearish gold count.

DG

So when you say that his long-term analysis remains bearish I assume that you are extrapolating beyond Neely's own forecasts from the larger count.

The next top Neely is anticipating in Gold is forecast to be labeled wave D. That would be followed by a counter-move wave E. At that degree, wave E would be retracing the move from 2005.

What I'm saying is implicit in Neely's current labeling.

davidantony

Ned,

Sad to hear that Whipsaw died last year. How did you know that?
I recalled he went through a major surgery of some cancer last year.
Even though we never met but merely talked over the net, it is really sad to hear that.

davidantony

Mark

Ned, Sad to hear Whipsaw is no more.I liked him for his cool Temprament and his ability to count waves.His fellow boarders Wally and Slarti will always remember him.

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