Yves on the Greenshoot-Fed Sacred Fed Bull Died Fat and Happy

Or, how wave 4 is rolling over…

 
The obvious sometimes stands clearly. You face it and prepare for the outcome.  We stand at a juncture that would have you believe  in the coming outcome. But wait - lets take a quick journey into what seems to dominate my observations and you can determine the best course of action for yourself.

We have continually watched monetary aggregates and they are contracting. You will notice from the M2 chart divided by the monetary base a drop. This is significant and comparable to the 1930’s. The complaint would be the same as to banks sitting on a monstruous pile of cash but not lending it. The tradional behavior of the consumer to start saving instead of buying also compounds this problem. M2 decceleration cannot lead to inflation. The Fed cannot force the banks to lend and monetizing bonds will continue to aggravate the only asset  that people have en masse their household. An inflationary outcome is tantamount to financial hara kiri. The bonds vigilante will strike hard and mortgages will keep rising, killing any stabilization that is in process. The impact of the recent rates hike will be felt in the stock market in the next few months.

Given the choice to protect housing or stocks, the Fed will surely realise to go the real estate way. A liquidity trap as such is deflationary. The money base also doubled in Japan after the stock bubble collapsed and to no avail the economy kept contracting.

Are bonds finishing the C wave or are they in complete fast and furious 3rd wave?  This is the question we did pose in the article May 2nd. If the Fed gets it, they stop buying and monetizing the debt then it is a C wave.  

On the next graph, the spread of the discount rate to the rate of the long Treasury has never been so wide.If you had bought on a few occasions where the spread was wide as 4% between both, the resulting trade would be a winning one on most occasions.

Unless you are suggesting the Fed raises rates by about 2% over the next 24 months then buying treasuries would not be a great investment. On the other hand if you believe that there is little room for the Fed to move, then long bonds are an even better bet. There is a fine line that the Fed is walking and a slight tilt of strategy can undo with great dammage what they have built so far.Mild deflation is the preferred outcome and necessary one.

We have sold all of our inflation hedges that we owned for the last 2 months.We are turning to deflation trades or unwind. Possibly the greatest misunderstanding in the lift off of all markets singularly correlated is a function of investment demand and not real changes from supply/demand. Realise that all markets cannot possibly beat to the same rhythm for a prolonged time. Those correlations will unwind and support real bull market where there is cause for that.

We have held for a while our position of a rare 4th wave at this juncture. The last move up does look impulsive but is part of an ABC ABC 12345 pattern. The pattern still holds to the rules established. The implication is for a 5th finishing wave that will complete a bigger A wave down. The general area of the March low is the objective. It could be truncated or extended. I will be looking for an equivalent 3 standard deviation in sentiment measures to call the bottom if that was to occur. We are looking to short the market on the wave 2 of 5 and not before since window dressing could still be part of present activity.

The bull market ate too many greenshoots and died of natural causes.  Often bull markets roll over from their own weight.

Yves Lamoureux, Investment Advisor, Blackmont Capital Inc.
 
The opinions contained in this report are those of the author and are not necessarily those of Blackmont Capital Inc.. Every effort has been made to ensure that the contents of this document have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable and contains information and opinions which are accurate and complete. However, neither the author nor BCI makes any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, in respect thereof, or takes any responsibility for any errors or omissions which may be contained herein or accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on this report or its contents. BCI is an independently owned subsidiary of CI Financial. CI Financial is a Canadian owned diversified wealth management firm, publicly traded on the TSX under the symbol CIX. Blackmont Capital Inc. is a member of CIPF and IIROC.

Comments

[DG]

John,

That's cool. I don't understand why, just because Hank is a nice guy, and he appears to be, that should exempt him from having to verify his track record as thoroughly as anyone else.

I have no idea what Hank's aspirations are with his service, but I remember talking about Neely to someone who has done hundreds of asset manager due diligence processes for institutional investors and the first thing I was asked was "Have you gotten hold of his track record?"

If people are going to be touting services, don't I, as a potential customer, have the ability to ask pointed questions?

[Ted]

(especially) when some are charging for their services, it would be inappropriate to advertise/state winning points only, or provide incomplete information. possibly legal issues.

[Watcher]

Dog Whisperer, your call was bold and largely correct. Would you mind explaining what "regression with various class 4 CAs" means?

Is today's morning rally still consistent with your "tough few weeks" ahead?

[vipul garg]

as per my analysis ,for sp500 there exists two possibilities currently:
1. it rallies to 925-930 kind of levels and then moves down.
2.it keeps falling to 826 levels atleast and then moves up 890-900 levels.

however looking at time and structure , i have option 1 as my preffered count.
a little rally to get some initial bears out and bulls really steaming.

[Rob]

Hey Tara Baap,

Forget your golden cross nonsense. We are in a bear market. Any technician who knows anything would only get excited when the 50-day EMA crosses above the 200-day SMA and that isn't going to happen anytime soon for the SPX and the DJIA doesn't have a hope in hell. Granted there have been some crosses of this nature for other indices, but who cares.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

Thur. 11:25 A.M.

Chances are, this rally is finished.

Ned

[not so fast]

not so fast.

[DG]

In E-wave terms, in an Expanding Triangle at this degree, one would absolutely expect the 50 day to cross the 200 day. Talking about a "golden cross" without a market structure/pattern context is meaningless.

Talk to anyone who bought as soon as the 50 day reached it's furthest point (from the start of the bull market in 2003) from the 200 day to the downside in the fall, which also counts well as an Expanding Triangle. I'm sure they were surprised to find out just how far the 50 day could go below the 200 day.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>>Thur. 11:25 A.M.
Chances are, this rally is finished.
Ned<<

No gold star this time!

[Mike McQuaid]

As the SPX and XLF recover from a 50dma tag and gather thenselves back into rally mode, banks JPM and BAC make for interesting observation. Let BAC get past 13.93 and JPM 37.72 and the confinence in the rally should be spearheaded by these two influential banks. The bull/bear battleline is reflected in these two charts. As a bull I don't want to see JPM get under 32.87

[Account Deleted]

NEELY and his BULL SHIT WAVE THeory are in for one more surprise.DOW is not tanking and has come out of a channeled fall from the top.IT means recovery

[Mike McQuaid]

The NDX is making it look easy. There's your rally.

[vipul garg]

so VB , i hope you have bought especially from lower levels like many others here and will keep adding as market declines somewhat like prechter and hisn service predicts.

[DG]

VB,

Been following Neely's calls since 2006. He's made 6 or 7 "big" calls for market turns (the kind of turns where if you were only doing a couple of trades a year, these would be the trades to make). He's only missed 1.

That's an ~85% success rate at keeping his subscribers on the right side of the macro trend.

Please show me a better market timer. I will take your lack of intelligible reply as confirmation of Neely's capabilities.

[Forkoholic Serge]

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[Account Deleted]

Dear DG !!

Honestly I feel u guys are NEELY appointed agents on the NET.Always defending him however wrong he may be.Arent u guys ashamed even a wee bit.Doesnt your conscious bit anywhere.

[DG]

VB,

I just gave you a clue about why I defend Neely. He's right 85% of the time on the "big" turns.

WTF more do you want? You clearly don't have the slightest clue what he is saying about the markets right now, so why not just state your own opinion and live and die by your own words? Why bring Neely into it at all?

[Account Deleted]

Dear Vipul !!

Do u still think in INDIA a BIG X WAVE is going on and we will still hit news lows

THanx
VB

[DG]

VB,

You do realize that vipul is primarily (I don't want to say exclusively because I don't know for sure) a follower of NeoWave concepts and market methods?

So on the one hand, you call it BS and on the other, you ask vipul his market view? It tends to confirm what I think about many of the Neely-bashers, which is that you lack a coherent perspective on the markets.

[Rob]

Further to all the hoopla in the media about the supposed Golden Cross for the SPX, according to Helene Meisler who is the technician for TheStreet.com there has been no Golden Cross yet. Moving averages must be moving in the same direction to signify such a buy signal.

[anon_aka_TERA BAAP]

HAHAHA you bears...

i wonder how well the NEELY SUBSCRIPTON is doing....how his FOLLOWERS enjoyed being RIPPED today by the BULL HORNS!!

ROB you were saying GOLDEN CROSS whch I indentified!!! is meaningless?? how did your SHORT position feel today..perhaps as if a GOLDEN CROSS was INSERTED into your RECTUM???!!!

HAHHAHAH

NED BUSHONG u said this morning that "Rally is FInish"!! HAHAHA..perhaps your DESIRE for SUbSCRIBERs needs to be FInished!!!!????

its seems all BEARS are in BENT-OVER position with BULL HORNS inserted into REAR!!!

HHAHAHAHHAHAHA

[vipul garg]

Dear VB,
indian market : there are two choices: it makes a new high or it makes a new low.i am wageringing on the second.
i have my bearish count alive and kicking till now .
its not a big X wave but a normal b wave .market is coming down for sure.how much , lets see.

maybe DG wasnt emphatic enough, i only trade neowave concepts.

[Mark]

Ned
Do you remember SLARTI of old elliott forum. Who is the Slarti of this forum?
DG ofcourse.

[Mark]

hahaahhaa.Vipul you made my day

indian market : there are two choices: it makes a new high or it makes a new low.

You missed the third choice they can go sideways.Hahahahaaha.

Non-wavers at their best!!! hahahahahahaahahaha!!!

[tony123]

Rally call vindicated - http://thinkingtrades.com

[tony123]

Rally call vindicated - http://thinkingtrades.com

[===MODEL PORTFOLIO===]

We have been posting trades live ===since 05/26===. We have realised around $11500 profits in the $25000 ===MODEL PORTFOLIO=== in a month.

[vipul garg]

laughing Mark,
my sense of humor is less developed than you , so enlighten me with reasons of your laugh.?

you didnot follow the context of the conversation me and VB were having previously.
and there is no third choice : it either makes a new high without making a new low, or it makes a new low before making a new high...even if you are a non -waver, these are the only two choices.

[KRG]

Neely Bashers/Current Equity Bulls:

Assuming that the bear markets are over and since this is supposedly an Eliott wave oriented blog,can we have some alternate counts in S&P, Gold, Dollar & Bonds instead of expletives and profanities

HAGO

[vipul garg]

there are no alternative counts . only the fact that whatever someone else says, is wrong,without logic, reason, count

[Mark]

No. there are always alt counts. market can go to new high is your count. or they can go to new lows is your other count. There is no alt count, is another non- waver illogical, unreasonable statement....you must correct your facts.

[vipul garg]

mark,
i dont think you ve had a look at indian markets and charts.
so i say again there are only two choices.
and i have only once count which is that the indian market will make a new low before they make a new high.
you must understand the statements and the context before you label them as illogical, unreasonable and others.

[Mark]

You are again wrong.I have seen nifty chart and its going up. It will make a new high in near term and then break lows of 2250 not otherway round as your non wave analysis suggest.

[DG]

Ned
Do you remember SLARTI of old elliott forum. Who is the Slarti of this forum?
DG ofcourse.

Posted by: Mark | Thursday, June 25, 2009 at 08:38 PM

I don't know this SLARTI, but he sounds like a good guy.

Mark, if I had to find an obscure analogy to you, I guess I'd pick the retarded kid who used to live next door to me when I was young.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>>Ned Do you remember SLARTI of old elliott forum. Who is the Slarti of this forum?
DG ofcourse.<<

He..he. Mark, that was a very long time ago. Who were you in those days?

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>>>>Thur. 11:25 A.M.
Chances are, this rally is finished.
Ned<<

No gold star this time!<<<

Assuming the 921 holds, that's still not too bad. Missed by 9 points and a couple hours.

[jeff]

Missed by 9 points and a couple hours.

Don't flatter yourself

[Account Deleted]

DG

Thanx for poking your nose in between.Now its pretty much clear wht your job.But i understand afterall thats wht u r paid for.TO save NEELY from genuine criticism.So appreciate your loyalty towards your job and your employer.

[jim]

cut it out.

can we just focus on making money.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>>Missed by 9 points and a couple hours.
Don't flatter yourself
Posted by: jeff | Friday, June 26, 2009 at 06:45 AM<<

Oh! A new fool in the bunch. What's the matter Jeff, can't count?

[Ned. you are losing money.]

You must be trading in a model portfolio, or not watching the market. Just keep quiet, and watch.

[DG]

VB,

I just find it ironic that you'd post a message asking vipul his opinion when that opinion would be based on the same method you had just called BS a few posts before. That kind of inconsistency is the mark of a confused individual.

What are the facts that we know so far? Neely said the market topped on June 11th. Here it is June 26th and that market top has not been surpassed.

Everything else is just noise.

You need to look up the definition of "criticism". So far, all you've posted is schoolyard taunting that doesn't deserve to be called criticism, which needs to be based on facts and logic, not name-calling.

[vipul garg]

mark,
good you seen the charts.
believe me , this is the only thing that i am wrong in the entire conversation.
you take long trades on nifty now before it makes a new high, and i ll take a trade as per my count.
time will tell.

[DG]

i wonder how well the NEELY SUBSCRIPTON is doing....how his FOLLOWERS enjoyed being RIPPED today by the BULL HORNS!!

Wonder no more.

Here are Neely's trades since the beginning of May on an Hourly timeframe (start date, end date, win/loss, # of futures points):

18-May 20-May W 26
20-May 22-May W 9.75
29-May 1-Jun L -20.75
3-Jun 5-Jun L -12.75
8-Jun 8-Jun W 0.5
15-Jun 17-Jun W 12.5
19-Jun 25-Jun L -1.25

The "bull horns" caused his subscribers a massive 1.25 point loss.

See, for people who know how to trade and aren't clowns, even being wrong doesn't cost you much when you practice good risk management.

[Sam K]

Neely is coming out with a MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT this weekend.

STAY TUNED

[TERA BAAP Fan]

TERA BAAP makes my day.

[Upstart]

Looks like 5 tiny waves up and 3 down today for perhaps a zigzag correction of the initial decline.

[Upstart]

That is, we perhaps finished "b" of a zigzag today and need another push up for "c".

[Upstart]

Don't remember if I pointed out that the XAU essentially made an unbelievable 2/3 retrace of its entire decline (exceeded it by 2.65 points) at the June high, and with the timing I mentioned. I have so much timing for the DOW in June, other than the 322 months to the day from the 1982 closing low, that I can't begin to cover it all. I hope Neely and all these cats change their mind and get bullish because I'll know I've got it nailed then.

[DG]

Upstart,

For crying out loud, why can't you and the other ankle-biters leave Neely out of your prognostications? The idea that Neely is some sort of contrary indicator and a good fade is mind-bogglingly at odds with the actual data. Just because you and others keep saying it's so, doesn't make it so. The world isn't some magical fairy land where saying things makes them true. I will gladly compare Neely's actual trades to whatever fantasy version of his trades exists in your head. Or does actual data not matter any more?

If your forecast is good, it will stand on it's own. Submit your track record to Timer's Digest, if you think it's so fantastic. Put your money where your mouth is, basically. Neely's #1 in Gold and #2 in S&P over the last 12 months. And you?