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Wednesday, July 15, 2009

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DG

The vaunted head & shoulders turned out to be nothing but a bust, maybe because so many commentators saw it - when so many expect one way, the opposite usual occurs in the market. What had been the neckline now appears to be a support level that held.

While the H&S didn't work, in my opinion this approach to technical analysis is the wrong approach. H&S work about 50% of the time, no? Do any fewer people see them the half of the time when they work than see them the other half of the time? How can one go about proving this?

The huge H&S in late 2007 worked like a charm and everyone saw that one, too.

Vince

From trendythird.blogspot.com:

"The best pattern in the stock market and the only one I actually use because it makes money 90% of the time is a head and shoulders FAILURE. If a head and shoulders formation breaks the neckline and then moves up past the right shoulder, it will 9 times out of 10 clear the head. For the S&P, that means if 931 is broken to the upside, then there are extremely high odds that 956 will then be broken."

Chase

What time does JPMorgan Chase release earnings tomorrow?

Basil

The problem with the head and shoulder pattern was that everyone and his best buddy were talking about it. The problem with the "final surge" is that now everyone and his best buddy are starting to talk about new highs.
And on another note, what does the "final surge" actually mean? It's the end of all surges? At worst, I guess the possibly coming rally is a rally before the next/last leg down, and then there will be another surge. At best, this surge is before a correction, before another surge, before a correction, and so on... Enough with quoting the "final surge" already. I'm reading this for a couple of years now.
In any case, I am betting on this summer rally, too. If you want to make $ in the market you need to take sides, so I'm with Yelnick on this one. But I'll be out before mid-August, for sure.

george

i mentioned in a previous
posted comment that head
and shoulders only work
out 50% of the time.
it is still possible
this one will work out.
the left shoulder
had a double shoulder.
possible the right shoulder
might double as the left
to have symmetry.

george

the bradley model
might have inverted
the cycle that is
due. if this head
and shoulders top
fails. that would
mean the bradley
model is predicting
an extended up move
instead of a major
top.

EN

Yes. The old double left shoulder would frustrate a lot of traders. Lots of stops got hit at 928.50 in the futures. I hope it turns down from here but ain't banking on it.

JA

I hope this isn't a dumb question, but could Neely be right and yet there be an "irregular" top that exceeds June 11 and yet is the start of the next impulse wave down?

Upstart

Maybe I will be wrong big-time, but I'm looking at many things that point to June being an important top. So the market will just have to break the high to prove me wrong, because otherwise I'm staying bearish. Also note that, unless I'm missing something, the DOW made an island reversal, which is usually a short-term reversal pattern.

DG

I hope this isn't a dumb question, but could Neely be right and yet there be an "irregular" top that exceeds June 11 and yet is the start of the next impulse wave down?

Posted by: JA | Wednesday, July 15, 2009 at 05:28 PM

Not the way Neely does waves.

That'll either be the top or he'll have to change his wave count.

anon_aka_TERA BAAP

There is STRANGE ODOR in the air..what kind of smell..i am VEGETERAIN..it is animal in deep pain..

I SMELL the SEARED flesh of FRESH BEAR MEAT!! ROASTING on the bullish fire!!

HAHAHAHAHA

you bears continue to get CRUSHED under Wave 3 supercycle.. you are MATHAMATICALLY challanged..let me explain to you..

The 1982 low SPX basis was 103..the high in October 07 (Wave 2 irregular flat high) was 1576..

WHAT WOULD BE A PERFECT 38.2% FIB RETRACE OF THIS MOVE??

exactly 666..which is what happened..from which he have rallied in the NEWBORN WAVE THREE

A sharp reversal intraday, which is highly likely, will shove the odds of this being a 'bull trap'.

Posted by: Ned Bushong | Wednesday, July 15, 2009 at 08:34 AM

YES something was SHOVED...and it was SHARP too!! NED, will you be Visiting same PROCTOLOGIST as NEELY? pls ask him for VOLUME DISCOUNT BULL Horns removal service!!

HAHAHAHAHA

TERA BAAP

TERA BAAP you got margin calls on July 8?  Too bad.  Next time, just buy penny call options.

TERA BAAP

I thought you were break even this morning from your "big-Time" long positions on July 2.

Your broker said you got margin calls, and your positions were liquidated on July 8.

Too bad. Next time, just buy penny call options.

>HAHAHAH!! CLOWN, you must be KIDDING..

this DIP will be BOUGHT in first 30 minutes of trading

i am buying SSO and BGU big-TIME in pre-market

TERA BAAP

Posted by: anon_aka_TERA BAAP | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 06:00 AM

DG

The 1982 low SPX basis was 103..the high in October 07 (Wave 2 irregular flat high) was 1576..

WHAT WOULD BE A PERFECT 38.2% FIB RETRACE OF THIS MOVE??

exactly 666..which is what happened..from which he have rallied in the NEWBORN WAVE THREE

You can't correct an 18-year advance (assuming you mean that the move from 1982 to 2000 was wave 1) in 9 years. In a Trending Impulse wave 2 should last as long as wave 1 and if wave 3 is going to be the extended wave, wave 2 should perhaps last even longer than wave 1.

As I've said before, stick to cheerleading for Obama/Geithner/Bernanke because you clearly know squat about Elliott Wave.

MHD

DG... give us some insight about Neely's diametric pattern. If this forms, what are the forecasts for that formation. He did not give much info on what this pattern means for the S&P in todays update.

anon_aka_TERA BAAP

DG..

I DONT know whether to help you or Pity you..but I will try and help..following NEELY must have Subject you to much Pain..and harmed you MENTAL capacity..pls Read this..it is BASIC!!!

Rules and guidelines

The most important rules and guidelines are:

Wave 2 cannot be longer in price than wave 1, and it must not go beyond the origin of wave 1. <======= VERY FIRST RULE!!!
Wave 3 is never the shortest when compared to waves 1 and 5.
Wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1, except in diagonal triangles and sometimes in wave 1 or A waves, but never in a third wave. In most cases there should not be an overlap between wave 1 and A.
As a guideline the third wave shows the greatest momentum, except when the fifth is the extended wave.
Wave 5 must exceed the end of wave 3.
As a guideline the internal wave structure should show alternation, which means different kind of corrective structures in wave 2 and 4.

DG you CLOWN..now read this..

Wave 2

Once the first wave has finished, we anticipate a second wave in the opposite direction. Second waves are created by new selling (buying)—as opposed to fourth waves, which are created by profit taking (long liquidation or short covering). Wave 2 targets can be generated by (1) Fibonacci relationship and (2) internal wave counts.

The most common targets for the end of wave 2 are between 38 percent and 62 percent retracement of the range of wave 1 (Figure 7-4). About three out of four wave 2s will end in this area; only about one in six will retrace more than 62 percent. Another tip is that if wave 2 ends with less than a 38 percent correction, wave 2 will usually be an irregular correction (see Figure 7-11, later in this chapter).

DG..in this CASE you had PERFECT WAVE TWO!!! it was :

1) IRREGULAR correction/expanded FLat

2) It retraced EXACTLY 38.2 $

3) it was SHORTER in DURATION than Wave 1 (YOU are wrong in your time rule..see FIRST rule of Wave 2 requirement)

DG .. it seems that FOLLOWING Neely has affected you Ability to think Clearly..i suggest you TAKE some TIME OFF from MArkets..allow your MIND to HEAL..i suggest a good SINGLE MALT..and perhaps some nice evening with WOMAN .. (or maybe ESCORT unless you cannot afford)..

ONLY THEN you can conversate about Market DYNAMIC..

GOOD Luck to you.. (you will need it)

TERA BAAP

DG

I didn't say anything about price, you moron. I was talking about time. Nothing in your rules refers to time, it is all price-based. When the rule says it "can't go beyond the origin" that means in price, retard.

Keep trying to show that you know more than me about wave theory, though. It's good for a laugh and shows the true lack of knowledge we are all dealing with here.

DG

DG... give us some insight about Neely's diametric pattern. If this forms, what are the forecasts for that formation. He did not give much info on what this pattern means for the S&P in todays update.

Posted by: MHD | Wednesday, July 15, 2009 at 08:35 PM

MHD,

I'd really rather keep all that more specific discussion on the NeoWave blog. It essentially means we'll be range-bound with a downward bias.

vipul garg

yelnick, you have to moderate this.

it is accepted to put down someone and anyone. but repeated foul language /escort etc. really takes your mind off and shut the blog.
it gets way too much.

MHD

vipul garg....a little humor never hurt anyone. Sit back and enjoy!

anon_aka_TERA BAAP

VIPUL GARG... it seems you are having trouble KEEPING the FOCUS?

this side chatter about ESCORT and suddenly you cannot CONCENTRATE on Nifty or SENSEX??

HAHAHAHAHA

VIPUL it seems you are NOT being SATISIFIED in night time and then your focus is gone.. perhaps you do NOT yet have a WIFE or girlfriend..yaar..let me give you some ADVISE.

please say GAYATRI mantra at least 3 times every morning after taking shower..

it will make you FULL of PEACE..then your WAVE counts will become better and you will be able to maintian the FOCUS on markets and make money


TERA BAAP

also do SATYA NARAYAN puja on regular basis

vipul garg

mhd,
humor???
my sense of humor is pretty primitive to you guys then.

anon,
lets stick to comments and advise on trades and elliott.
keep going about your calls , and supercycles.in humor or without.but never more than that.

i am sure there are enough agony aunt sites where you can find whatever release you are lookin for.

Mark

NON-WAVERS you are going to celeberate something unique.Neely will be stopped out for the fifth consecutive time and that will be a world record. CHEERS...hahaha

mttoolki@gmail.com

the S&P weekly hit resistance at the 200SMA

we'll see how it holds

i bought heavy into S&P short funds

mttoolki@gmail.com

You realize that even when Neely gets stopped out its usually for a small profit or a small loss, right?

His net loss so far during this S&P turning point (when the market is choppy) has been close to nothing.

vipul garg

hey mark, why worry so much about neely.
what happened to your nifty buys?

Mark

I have nothing to worry about non wavers and not about neely nonsense.dont worry I wont get stopped out on five consecutive trades.Instead of worrying about pathetic non wave-analysis
you will keep harping on how many points do neely win on wrong calls. You have to learn it the hard way that silly man is an analyst firstand he dishes out so many bad analysis calls
everyday. You seely non wvers will never learn because seelyman did not taught you humility.
He only taught you arrogance. Go and celeberate the world record nonwavers.

vipul garg

you still didnot answer about nifty , Mark?

Mark

They are better than your gold trades.

Patrick

"The 1982 low SPX basis was 103..the high in October 07 (Wave 2 irregular flat high) was 1576..

WHAT WOULD BE A PERFECT 38.2% FIB RETRACE OF THIS MOVE??

exactly 666.".....

Apparently we use different calculators or you do your stuff upside down.

Upstart

The June high being an important top, as I said, means almost by definition that a higher top will not be made above it in the adjacent month, July. So if the bulls are correct, I expect it meanders sideways in a triangle or something before new highs. It's not going to just continue rallying through July.

renko

Bold call upstart in the face of rapid investor psychology shift. We are overbought right now, but traders are already talking 1050-1100 in S&P. 2Q earnings hurdles set too low sets up for a strict 3Q earning season. Evidence suggests that Neely's high will be broken in a week or by the time a better than expected GDP by the end of July.

yo mama

>Evidence suggests that Neely's high will be broken in a week.

Then anon_aka_TERA BAAP's name will be "yo mama" from "yo daddy".

And show your evidence, if you know what evidence means.

DG

We are overbought right now, but traders are already talking 1050-1100 in S&P.

If traders are "talking" about it, I guess that settles it, then.

DG

Neely will be stopped out for the fifth consecutive time and that will be a world record. CHEERS...hahaha

Posted by: Mark | Wednesday, July 15, 2009 at 11:29 PM

Really, you think 5 consecutive stop outs is actually a world record? I'm amazed at the level of ignorance displayed by the Neely bashers. How do people like you even hear of Neely? I'm curious. Reading these posts is like watching the proverbial train wreck, where you know it's going to be awful, but you can't look away.

Mark

vipul, joke apart, I expect nifty to go to 5450 levels at least before reversing.If 4700
is not taken easily prices may meander sideways for a while before up.

tally ho

DG - you have to admit Neely is in a tight spot with his Jun 11 call.

DG

tally ho,

Sure, but let's wait for the dust to settle until making a determination. Can people on the other side of that trade also admit that Neely specifically said the initial decline would be very slow and that bulls would view every dip as the buy of a lifetime? I've got the documentation of him saying that repeatedly both before and after his call about the June 11th top.

tally ho

DG - I subscribe to Neely, so I know of his slow decline to accelerate past 750. I don't think I disagree that a decline is to occur before the end of the year, but the top thing is making us all nervous to be Bears at this point. Didn't he also say there was a possibility of a new high too? Neely made a call and I hope he doesn't lose subscribers over it...

tally ho

Mark - I think Neely sets stops to minimize risk(duh). He is public about his trading. Post your record next to his for a comparison in a spreadsheet. Did you beat him?

vipul garg

gold has made a bottom.last and final meandering to do most likely.

Mark, its cool .

even if 4500 breaks now, maybe it has higher to go.4700 is absolute point of turn.now above that it will atleast where you say if not make a new high.

but i am in bear camp.and we will not go above 4375 odd levels now.

DG

tally ho,

Yes, he did mention the possibility of a new high. I'm nervous, but that is par for the course, I think, unless you enter a trade at just the perfect time.

If you're a subscriber and you want to get access to the subscriber-only NeoWave blog (if you don't, since I might just not recognize the user name), send me an e-mail at neowavetrader (at) gmail.com. We're having good discussion over there about all of this. I'm happy to talk generalities here, but we get very specific there.

Mamma Boom Boom

--------No Follow-thru--------

I'll stick with the 'Spando', at least until proven wrong.

Forkoholic Serge | Elliott Wave Forkology

http://arxiv.org/abs/0907.1827

Upstart

Is this a tiny triangle before popping higher tomorrow? I think I mentioned a long time ago that 92 trading days has been producing turns - so many of them that I made a chart of just 92-day turns. Tomorrow is 92 from the March low. If nothing else, it could be the end of the leg of a developing bullish triangle, perhaps.

Johnndro

Neely River Technology locked in 32 points of PROFIT!!!

Neely's latest short trade was stopped out for a 4 point gain and currently FLAT.

NEELY SAYS NEW ALL TIME LOWS FOR THE CENTURY STILL AHEAD for the S&P....

Read here....
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=12114

Mamma Boom Boom

Ok! Gonna close the gap at 945. That will leave a vacuum down to the March low.

(maybe)

Johnndro

S&P heading for epic lows late this year/early next year somewhere around SPX 375

Tom

>>The 1982 low SPX basis was 103..the high in October >>07 (Wave 2 irregular flat high) was 1576..WHAT WOULD >>BE A PERFECT 38.2% FIB RETRACE OF THIS MOVE?? >>exactly 666..which is what happened

What kind of time/price Elliott ratio is that???????

A twenty five year wave 1? and a one year wave 2? LOL

25:1 or '0.04 ratio' Can you say "l a c k s b a l a n c e" ?


clown of yo daddy wave

The guy deserves his own wave.

clown of yo daddy wave

Tom

O ok, maybe you see 2000 as wave 1.

18:8 or .44 ratio more plausible.

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