Rally Losing Momentum

Tonight's STU sees us in a triangle wave iv, with a thrust ahead in wave v and then the biggest pullback since this rally began on Jul8.  We have been in an ABC correction since Mar6, with Jun11 marking wave A, Jul8 wave B, and the coming thrust the end of wave a of wave C up.  Possible targets are SP1K and Dow9185 for this temporary top.  Given the 2 1/2 week wave a, they expect a weekish wave b and a several week final c.  This stock pullback may be matched by a brief strengthening of the USD.  It has begun a thrust down, but the extreme bearish sentiment at the moment suggests a short term reversal.  If this all plays out as it appears to be developing, after this wave b pullback in stocks & a slight increase in the USD, the USD will continue down and the Dow up towards a serious turning point in August. 

Comments

[Forkoholic Serge]

UBS AG’s U.S. brokerage business stopped selling exchange-traded funds that use leverage because the products don’t conform to its emphasis on long-term investing.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9.vJG0almFs

[Forkoholic Serge]

We could be already in edt w5, with blue channel top as possible resistance area
http://forkoholic.com/images/spxco072709.jpg

[Josef]

Wondering what would be a good target to expect for the weakish wave b pullback.

SPX 930?

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>>>>>Rally Losing Momentum<<<<<<

My stuff never did show much strength, even after catching the turn to within a couple of hours. A couple of analysts have pointed out how just a handful of stocks were carrying the ball. Presently, my short term and long term indicators are on a sells, with intermediate indicators a mixed bag and weakening.

It'll be interesting to see what Neely comes up with. Hopefully, he abandons that silly idea of using October as an important pivot point, or he'll be doomed to failure again. IMO.

[Ned grow up]

Ned
grow up

[Paper Bag]

Ned,

I dare you to analyze your way out of me.

[US Dollar]

Paper Bag--

Did you know you and I are first cousins?

ps Can we cool it with the ad hominem stuff?

[Mamma Boom Boom]

US Dollar----

That's actually DG.

Some people like to ruffle his feathers about his 'orientation'. He likes to jab at me because of my 'analytical prowess'.

[DG]

I was paper bag, but not grow up.

Some people like to ruffle his feathers about his 'orientation'.

Hey, it's not my fault a guy came up with NeoWave. I'd prefer it to have been Scarlett Johansson myself, but no such luck.

[Newbie McNovice]

I bet Scarlett Johansson's a handful. Be careful what you wish for and all that.

I read that Didier Sornette thought the Chinese market would top July 17-27 or something similar. If so, he was wrong.

Seems to be some buzz here about an important August top. Any special eclipse-y or fibonacci or spiral calendar or Martin Armstrong turndate reasons?

[Ned give it up]

>He likes to jab at me because of my 'analytical prowess'.

Ned,
give it up
you are average at best.

[Brian]

Is it just me, or over that last week and a half has the STU been saying:
things are going down... (but then the market goes up)
things are going down... (but then the market goes up)
things are going down... (but then the market goes up)
Then, all of a sudden, "things are going up, then down."
Wouldn't it be funny if this actually is a short term top and the market was flat today and began the turn down tomorrow?

[da bear]

according to the STU how much longer does this rally last? until next year? wish they would put out their EWI Financial Forecast soon... maybe i will write their report for them... lol

if DOW 9,200 holds then the decline will start. if DOW busts above 9,200 then the DOW will rally to 9,700-10,300.

is EWI calling for a fall crash? what is their stance on the dollar?

da bear

[da bear]

oh, ok. i reread the blurb again about the STU. seems as if the mid-August time frame is hot right now.
doesn't say what the price target for the DOW is but i am guessing that 9,700 to 10,300 is in the ballpark.

9,700 DOW would mean that the DOW rallied 50% off the March lows (same as the 1930 bear market rally).
10,300 would mean that the DOW retraced 50% of the entire Oct. 2007 to March 2009 bear market.

da bear

[DG]

I bet Scarlett Johansson's a handful. Be careful what you wish for and all that.

We all gotta go some time.

[Taz]

Didier Sornette's actual timeframe is July 10 to August 10. July 17 to 27 is his 20/80 quantile range.

Taz

[yelnick]

Josef & da bear - exact levels await the end of the triangle (which may have been today) and should be in the Dow8700-8800 range. Then a brief wave 5 thrust up to the targets indicated, and the wave b drop. If we go below Dow9007/SP966, then the wave b is underway (these are the wave iv leg a bottom). For the final wave c to end wave C, the STU for a while has expected a 38% retrace, or SP1014 (Dow9400), as a minimum; and won't be surprised by a 50% retrace or SP1127 (over Dow10K - da bear's Dow10300 is a good marker).

[teaf]

setting up for a Labor Day mob (make or break) when the boys come back from the hamptons. i see no reason why the c wave couldn't get us to the .618 or a 1x1 up in low 1200s - when we get up there it will look like a 3 wave so bears will need to bring the big artillery or we are going parabolic into year end..