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« China Bubble About to Burst? | Main | Bulls Ready to Stampede in Final Surge »

Monday, July 20, 2009

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in the red

Everyone talks about this collapse like it is right here...wait for it...wait for it...oooooo look at this data, it surely means we are going down now.

When are we going to realize that it is just pure guessing at this point and that counts will be changing for some time after the high is broken.

You can't predict the market I'm afraid.

Mamma Boom Boom

in the red, your a fine piece of work.

in the pink

Agreed. When everyone thinks something is going to happen, it ain't... the top will never be The Top.

Sherman McCoy

I love the Armageddon scenario, I just can't trade based on it. Prechter/Neely sell a service, but it's like the coming Ruff Times - it never comes to pass. I'd like to see them run money and beat an index. Last time I checked, Bob's still looking for $100 Gold, and Neely was looking for 100,000 DJIA. Both are silly forecasts in the extreme. If I want to bet a long shot, I'll go to the track.

The LT trend is bullish until it's not. and predicting otherwise is a fools errand. I look at Gold and see higher prices because as they say, "it's a bull market". Who's to say stocks aren't in a (nominal price)new bull market?

George Soroes

2000 - 2003 = A
2003 - 2007 = B
2007 - 2009 = C

Dog Whisperer

2009 - 2010 = -1

mttoolkit

I have a Neely River Trading blog

contact mttoolkit@gmail.com

It is for former students of NRT ONLY!

DG

The LT trend is bullish until it's not.

You mean LT like since March of this year? How many long-term trendlines has the decline from October 2007 broken? Is there a single one that isn't broken? How can you talk about a LT uptrend in that context?

DG

Agreed. When everyone thinks something is going to happen, it ain't... the top will never be The Top.

Wait, is there anyone left who doesn't think, after we came within 5 points of a new high, that we won't make a new high? Doesn't that mean, by your definition, that it won't happen? So I should go extra short right now, right, since my risk is only about 5 points?

I love how the market pseudo-sages come out of the woodwork at times of maximum confusion and try to pretend that they are above the fray.

Sherman McCoy

A 200 day M.A. I would consider LT. We're above it. The 50 day has been above it for the last 20 trading days. I don't do trendlines - they're for fools, I do Regression lines. Furthermore, I'm not selling anything, just pointing out a fact. $SPX tracked the 200 day from May 2003 to Jan 2008 and then broke. In that time Elliott was consistently looking for an apocalypse rather than making money.

This is about making money, right?

Lasse

One thing that never stops amazing me is how easy it is to not see the forest for all the trees.
If one takes a step back and looks at the larger picture, perhaps at a quarterly or yearly chart of the Dow or the S&P, a few things become clear.

IF we are indeed in a wave 2 of a much larger wave down, it is in my book sensible to remember that a wave 2, more often than not retraces at least 50% of the previous move.
The S&P index has at current levels retraced approximately 32% of the whole move from the top of October 2007 to the bottom of March this year.
From a time perspective, wave 1 took 74 weeks to complete and, so far, this move up has only been on its way for 19 weeks, i.e. 25% of the previous move.

With that in mind one would think that, assuming a current wave 2, the current move has some way to go

IF the larger correction instead ended in March and we currently are in a wave 1 of a move that will take us beyond S&P 1576 one would, for the same reason, expect a sharp correction and re-test of lower levels before long.

It appears that S&P index at 956 is the present pain barrier for a lot of shorts.

An example of wave 1 and wave 2 behaviour is the long term change of direction of the Dow starting in 1932, or more recently on a smaller scale in EUR/$US starting in 2000.

DG

In that time Elliott was consistently looking for an apocalypse rather than making money.

I would amend this to "EWI was consistently looking for an apocalypse". The techniques are bigger than Prechter, although he and his crew have the largest "mindshare" with Elliott.

barood

There is this scenario I am thinking of now because now seems so many expecting 1000 to sell their positions. If Wednesday is down I will give up on 990. Wednesday is a key pivot in my positioning.

I think tomorrow they close the market at a new high and Wednesday the market will start rolling down again to new lows if this scenario to play. Why? After looking around for consensus sentiment, 4 categories of participants at the moment.

1. real longs are looking to sell close to a 1000 which Mr Market will attempt not to give this opportunity

2.EWI did not get there 7600 Dow target and hence did not enjoy this rally. The market will not give them their Wave C target in this summer.

3. Neely will be proven wrong for his highly advertised high of June 11 all over the Internet boards.

4. Any left Bears will close positions little after new high in anticipation of re shorting at higher price.

I don't know the weight of each of the above market participant sentiments. But if we take normalized distribution of these forces, I am expecting the market will resolve it by a close at new high and reversing. Again Wednesday is a key day if the market is determined to kiss 990-1000. Gold stocks will enjoy a quick rally even if the market rallied and they will reverse when the volatility hits high on the general market. I could be wrong though on both scenarios. Market is here to humble us all.

Barood.

anon_aka_TERA BAAP

it is INCREDIBLE..how much the Sentiment has CHanged..

i DO NOT enjoy being on same TRADE as NEELY...because he has been LOSER calling for CRASH while MISSING so much of UPSIDE

but now TERA BAAP is convinced that we will BREAK the march low

too many BULLS on this TRAIN... and i want to ride alone

DG please tell your BOY-FREIND mr NEELY to go LONG, therefore i would have 100% COnfidence in my SHORT positions

I SOLD my BULK GS shares bought in high 60's for 95 pts profit..now i am shorting GS XOM , gold and oil futures as well as SPX

HINT..look at SPX chart from 9/24/01 to 7/24/02 .. that is what CAPITULATION looks like..

TERA BAAP


GG

barood & anon_aka_TERA BAAP

go back to sleep.

Forkoholic Serge | Elliott Wave Forkology

Larry Pesavento puts his finastro career on the line ;-)
http://tfnn.s3.amazonaws.com/LarryPesavento072009.mp3

DG

i DO NOT enjoy being on same TRADE as NEELY...because he has been LOSER calling for CRASH while MISSING so much of UPSIDE

Whatever.

mttoolki@gmail.com

the trading mindset that every missed opportunity to make $ is a loss is the wrong one.

focus should be kept on safety and NOT losing money first. its a game of survival.

if you can avoid the bad trades, your money will compound faster than a volatile portfolio. leveraged ETFs are a good example of how a volatile portfolio can inhibit compounding gains

DG

its a game of survival.

When you're trading with your own real money it is. When you're fake trading over the internet, it's whatever you want it to be. That's why I can't take anon seriously because there's no way anyone with serious money would act the fool like he does. Unless he inherited it from his daddy.

vipul garg

anon, looked at the charts.what is it about that time which makes it similar to now in terms of charts

Sherman McCoy

Lasse, In a forest for the trees argument, you have to look at the obvious expanding triangle in the SPX, which is a wave 4 formation. You also have to ponder the vertical move from 1200 to 1000 as well as open gaps on major sector ETF's. This isn't NASDAQ, and those gaps should get filled.

As far as Prechter goes, he's a broken clock. He has some flunkie writing algorithms to spot waves and long ago gave up on being an innovator. Being consistently wrong from 1987 to 2000 will do that to a prognosticator.I wouldn't be surprised if some hedge fund paid him to spread disinformation. I make more out of DeMark's approach than I ever made from Bob.

anon_aka_TERA BAAP

VIPUL

i dont have much time to go into detail right now.. but look at Angle of Ascent off of the bottom on 9/21/01..the first sharp correction was on 10/18/01 and took similar form to 3/30/09 pullback..2nd correction 12/06/01 high very much like 5/08/09 high..then a final topping action on 1/04/02 BUT THEN A FINAL, SHARP RETEST RALLY HIGH between 3/11 and 3/19/02..after which the market went straight down and took out its old lows into the 7/24/02 bottom..4 months of straight down

THE entire structure to date from the march bottom matches almost EXACTLY the 2002 structure into the 3/11-3/19 topping..if the analogy continues then we should have a long drawn out topping action here (1-2) weeks and then a rounding, slow decline which accelerates later

Sherman McCoy

TERA-

I traded the 12/01 high and was short for the entire 5 wave decline. This market is nothing like that. IMHO, markets rhyme they don't repeat. What we have today is:

A 3rd of a 3rd wave GAP at 88.50 on SPY that NEEDS to be filled.
EEM looking to break above its w-1 low(as emerging mkts outperform in general)
5 clear waves down in POT and MOS(former mkt leaders)
A wave 4 triangle in GLD

As sure as this is still God's green earth, the market will rally.

Sherman McCoy

excuse me, 110.34 on SPY. Maybe you can live through 15 handles of pain, i sure can't

Mista B

Hey anon_aka_TERA BAAP,

Fwiw, your predictions have been more accurate than most regarding this rally. My guess is that those who've responded negatively to your posts do so more as a reaction to your tone than to your market direction calls. I for one am curious with regard to your ongoing thoughts, thus I look forward to your future posts.

Sherman McCoy

I predict MONsanto is going to open higher. 5 crystal clear waves intra-day. I'm booking my profit. Does that help?

Ron

No.

DG

Mista B,

While I think the tone is uncalled for, what actually bothered me more was the lack of specificity about the analysis. I understand some people consider their methods proprietary and I respect that, but give me some clue about how you are deciding market direction. anon was screaming about Obama/Geithner/Bernanke not letting the market drop. That's not a serious analysis. No politician in history has ever wanted a market to drop, with the possible exception of Lenin.

elskid

I SOLD my BULK GS shares bought in high 60's for 95 pts profit..now i am shorting GS XOM , gold and oil futures as well as SPX

HINT..look at SPX chart from 9/24/01 to 7/24/02 .. that is what CAPITULATION looks like..

TERA BAAP


But didn't you post that you were NEVER going to sell - something like no price was not too low.

Carol

june 11 intraday high 956.23 breached

today's high 956.53

this is great news for the anti-bad-news-bunch but now that everybody can see it the pretend sages will probably say to fade the reverse-push-rally (buy the tops on each big drop)

Jose C

"Regardless, if we break the SP956 pivot point, look for an enthusiastic piling on and a sharp rally"

--Yelnick


WHAT HAPPENED, DUDE??!! I TOOK THAT TRADE AND GOT HAMMERED! WTF???

Jose C

I guess sharp rally will pick up steam tomorrow morning. I feel like an idiot. Sorry, Yelnick. My bad.

Jose

?er

Why will the rally pick up steam tomorrow?

WTF

Does everyone remember this embarrassing call?

Aliso Viejo, CA (PRWEB) June 16, 2009 -- Glenn Neely, founder of NEoWave Institute and prominent Elliott Wave analyst, today announces a startling prediction: The S&P 500 is forming a major top in June, which will be followed by a large decline, eventually pushing the stock market to record lows for the decade.

DG

WTF,

No, we've only been discussing it since the day it hit the wires. I'm sure Neely wishes he hadn't made that forecast, but as I've said more than once, despite that call, his trading has been profitable since that day and he's out of the market right now completely.

DG

In fact, just to reiterate that there is a blog set up for Neely subscribers to discuss his counts and trading recommendations, if you are a Neely subscriber and want to join the discussion, e-mail me at neowavetrader (at) gmail.com, with a snippet from a recent Neely subscriber file. Yelnick does a great job of laying out the scenario in broad strokes to keep from disclosing too much information, but we can discuss freely at the blog, since it is subscribers-only.

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