The View From Down Under

Al from Oz has laid out his views.  There is a robust TA community in Australia, many of whom were galvanized by Zoran Gayer's work, and continue in his vein today.  Here is his current count across several markets, starting with cricket!  (A market to watch, especially after Twenty20  revolutionized the sport.)  Financial markets as well, below the fold. 

To summarize, Al sees Jun11 as the top (Jun12 in Oz!) and 2012 as the bottom.  He expects the current wave 3 down to go at least to SP591 (61.8% of wave 1)  and maybe as low as SP372 (100% of wave 1), with a target of 27 Jan 2010 for the wave 3 bottom (1.618x wave 1 time of 294 days).  His wave 4 runs into Sep 2010 and the final wave 5 runs down to between Dec2011 to 5Aug2012. The wave 5 may break as an ending diagonal (or contracting triangle in Neely/Zoran terms). 

Cricket

Mark Webber won his first F1 GP overnight. Yay. Awesome. 130 starts and now a win. So happy for him.  If Webber continues on current form and Button cant overcome his tyre warmpth issues with the Braun then Webber could win the F1 Drivers Championship. It could be very close.

We (Aussies) also lost a Ashes Test match (Soooooooo close) because we didn't win the first test. It was a draw. The Poms last pair survived 6 overs in a nailbiter. Panasar (who's usually the dodgiest batsman) is the toast of Britain today. An absolute hero. He and the other tailender made a partnership of 16 runs to deny Australia victory by 1 wicket. It was shaping up to be a massive night in Aussie sport. With 60 overs to go I was sure we would win.

Lords on Thursday. Australia hasn't lost a Test match there since 1930. All bodes well with 4 Australian Centurions in the first Test.

The SPX.

The Origin = high of @ 1565.15 points on 09 Oct '07

Point ((G) Wave completion in an extended X wave pattern) retracment on the 21 Dec '07 at 1484.46 points broke the 4 year Bull market cycle on the S&P500 and confirmed the change from Bull Market to Bear Market.

Upon the (G) wave completion Glenn announced a re-confirmation of the 4 to 6 year Bear Market that he originally forecast in Jan 2009.

Impulsive (fast) Wave 1(A) (down - of a larger corrective pattern) (a, b, c, d, e) completed on 22 Jan '08, 106 days, at 1310.50 points, Down -254.65 points, a 16.27% retracment, or if taken from (G) to (A) as Glenn would do (173.96 points) is 13.27%

Corrective (a, b, c) Wave 2 (B) (up) - completed on 19 May '08, 119 days, at 1426.63 points, up 116.13 points, a 8.86% rally.

Impulsive (fast) Wave 3 minor (C, D, E (E) was exceptionally fast with a double extension down) - completed on 09 Oct '08, *** 144 Days***(Most Major Gann Number), Down 516.71 points.

This (E) wave completion, completed the Wave 1 Impulsive wave of the Major Corrective time pattern - two options:

1. Down 655.2 points in 367 Days (365 Major Gann Number) or
   
2. From point (G) confirmation, Wave 1 Corrective wave of the Major Corrective time pattern - 21 Dec'07 to 09Oct '08 - 294 Days, down 574.54 points to 909.92.

Wave 4 minor (time wasting slow up - completed on 12 June '09 = 247 days (8months & 4days) only 36.29 points up to 946.21 points

Wave 4 which is also the Wave 2 of the larger Major corrective pattern - completed on 12 June '09 247 days (8months & 4days) only 36.29 points (hence Tolly’s advice to not trade wave 4 for position or long term investment/SMSF trades).

The Wave 2 and Wave 4 alternation of time and range are very solid. The ratios are 116.13 points Vs 36.29 points (3.2: 1) contrasted with 119 Days Vs 247 Days (1: 2.07). Notice (3.2: 1) alternates (1: 2.07) very well IAW the rules of alternation Wave 2 and Wave 4, hence my strong belief that we are about to see a fast a, b, c, (minimum) impulsive pattern to the downside (Wave 3 in the larger time frame). Remember Wave 3 Impulsive wave can NEVER be the shortest in terms of price. It is common for Wave 3 can be the longest therefore wave 3 may equal or be greater than Wave 1. Remember Wave 1 of the Corrective wave of the Major

Corrective time pattern has two options;

1. Firstly Down 655.2 points in 367 Days (365 Major Gann Number) or
2. Secondly from point (G) confirmation - the Wave 1 Corrective wave of the Major Corrective time pattern - 21 Dec'07 to 09Oct '08 - 294 Days, down 574.54 points to 909.92.

The minimum price limit on Impulsion is 38.2% provided wave 3 is NEVER being the shortest.

The common price limits on impulsion are 61.8% to 200%.

The maximum price limits on impulsion is 275%.

38.2% of wave 1 (574.54 points) = 219 Points from end wave 4 (946.21 points = a minimum downside of 727 Points on the S&P500 but this is eliminated because it doesn’t break to new lows which it must do to fulfill the overlapping criteria. 38.2% is ruled out

I favour a 61.8 % down or matched 100% down 574.54 points of Wave 1 Corrective wave of the Major Corrective time pattern – (21 Dec'07 to 09Oct '08) - 294 Days, down 574.54.

Therefore the range is 61.8% (of wave 1 = 355 points down in an a, b, c move from 946.21 points = a price level of 591.21 points on the S&P500 which I consider the minimum target an which breaks the 665.75 intra day low in the 2nd week march ‘09.

100% W1 down or 574.54 points from 946.21 points = 371.67 points on the S&P500.

Hells bloody bells, somewhere between 591.21 points and 371.67 points on the S&P500 for the completion of wave 3 of the Major Corrective time pattern. 591.21 points are favoured.

Given the minimum time limits on impulsion are 100%,

Common time limits on impulsion are 161.8%, and 261% is questionable, 294 Days from is Thursday the 30 July 2009, which is 17 days away. An immediate rapid fall is eliminated by the rules for both time and price for 3rd wave of impulsions. 161.8% x 294 Days = 475 days and equates to 27 Jan 2010 which is preferred. (From 879 points today to 591.21 points in 199 days, (6 months, 15 days). If its still above 591.21 points on 27 Jan 2010 then it means its going lower over a longer period.

I then expect the Wave 4 Corrective wave of the Major Impulsive time pattern to take a minimum of 61.8% to 100 % of wave 3 time (144 Days) but 161.8% of 144 days is possible = 232 days from the forecast 27 Jan 2010 which is 16 Sept 2010 which lines up well for a initial final impulsive 5th wave fall in sept /oct 2010 establishing a contracting triangle down which may take 18 months to complete. Wave 5 will break to new lows (possibly only just if wave 3 breaks to 371.67 points on the S&P500) and can be the shortest wave in both time and price. Dec 2011 the maximum low at the earliest and Sunday, 5 August 2012 is the latest due to the rule that a 5-wave structure is always corrective and that we are coming of a corrective alternation in the major time period (March 2003 to Dec 2007 was corrective). We must therefore be in an impulsive wave, which can not exceed the previous corrective wave time period. N/B Support at 450 and 350.

DJIA

to mirror SPX in terms of % movements.

NASDAQ

to outperform both in a positive sense by losing less than either.

Oil

Oil hit my forcast target of $60US/B by Q2 '09 further completing deflationary scenario in a dollar devaluing environment. I was also correct in forecasting Oil (NYMEX) going back up to oscillate between $60 and $75 $US/B in Q2 but I was wrong about it not retracing time 2010. As you have seen Oil is retracing and will break its $32 low most likely this year as I perceive it leading the stock markets. Max downside for oil is $21 US/B, 2010 to 2012.

Gold

I'm looking for DJIA @5000 and S&P500 @500 points with Gold making a DJIA/Gold ratio of 1 : 5 between now and 5 August 2012. The realistic upside for Gold is $1030.  I was wrong about Gold "may already being on its way to retest $650". I still expect it to 1:5 ratio.  The Gold : DJIA may well achieve the 1:5 on this DJIA Wave 3 impulsion between now and 27 Jan 2010 is most likely. Once it achieves 1 : 5 then consider continuous contract shorts on Gold. Once Gold achieves 1 : 5 that it will return to @300 an ounce (Long term average) over a relatively short period of time (impulsive) ie 2 years given the 8 year corrective pattern (Bull Market 2001 low to now).

Silver has been the Stronger Sister of the precious metals and I expect silver retrace to be subsequently be more volatile than Gold.

Currencies

USDI to tank and deflate in line initially with Oil (Nymex).

Yuan to be fully floated and thus release it from artificial 'peg' with USD before 2012.

Saudis still want Gold from US for their Oil. Saudis don't understand 1:5 ratio. Pay them Gold I say.

What is the US Fed's Gold reserve. Better spend your Gold while its worth something.

China won't save the world. West world to grow by -2% GDP. China to maintain its 5% advantage by growing at +3.5% not the 7.6% forecast.

Cheap USD will provide the currency for the Global rally post 2012 for 20 years.

US inflation to mirror Japanese policy from the 80's and 90's.

Enormous foreign US Dollar borrowing to come once devalued @2012.

US trying to stave of emerging Chinese global dominance. US will fail. By 2032 China will dominate control of the World economy.

US will go Green to leverage power via the UN and challenge China. China will be environmentally/politically isolated and sanctions /embargoes imposed by Europe and USA. Protectionism and subsidies to continue and increase.

Brazil to outperform.

USD unwinding post 2032 as inflation sets in as final nail in US coffin.

Cheers

"Al from Oz"

Comments

[KRG]

Al from Oz:

Good one there...

If USD is to tank, which ccys do you think will gain?

[Forkoholic Serge]

EWF's official count has changed to reflect market manipulation.
http://www.forkoholic.com/officialcount.htm

[TERA BAAP. You went long "big-Time" when S&P was 910. you are breakeven now.]

TERA BAAP. You went long "big-Time" when S&P was 910. you are breakeven now.

>HAHAHAH!! CLOWN, you must be KIDDING..

this DIP will be BOUGHT in first 30 minutes of trading

i am buying SSO and BGU big-TIME in pre-market

TERA BAAP

Posted by: anon_aka_TERA BAAP | Thursday, July 02, 2009 at 06:00 AM

[John]

the bears lose it again!

[jAMES]

bears are WAITING to go short again!

[Account Deleted]

gfgfgf

[Account Deleted]

Once again NEELY will STRIPPED NAKED..And is IDIOT WAVE THEORY GROSSLY INASWQUATE !! HA HA H A

[Mamma Boom Boom]

------Madoff Murdered In Jail-----
http://www.bushongbusiness.com/webbbs/index.cgi?noframes;read=18155

[MHD]

I follow 6 e-wave experts and all will have wrong counts after today. I follow these ewavers out of curiosity and nothing more. Trying to figure out human nature is always interesting, but investing based on e waves will probably lead to financial disaster. They will be correct some of the time, just like you will win at the casino some of the time.
Yves outlook looks like the wrong call, Neely's top is on thin ice, the view from down under looks like it has problems with today's action, and the STU chart from a couple of posts ago doesn't look like it will play out as planned.
I could go on, but why bother.
Even Tony Caldero who has been pretty accurate in the past will have to change his count and outlook which is not often.
When most ewavers have the same outlook....watch out for the opposite to happen.

[Rob]

EWI (and now Neely and EWI and others) has screamed "There's a tsunami coming!" for a very long time and anyone who has acted on that prediction has become creamed corn. If you are lucky enough to have a few pennies left after following their advice you will lose them now, even with discipline and tight stops.

You will hit stop after stop after stop and you will be killed.

All the bears and the anal-retentive modeling has definitely given me the feeling we are going up, up, up. The markets do not respect models, Elliott or fork or "fractal" or otherwise.

[HaHa]

Bears rarely hold L-t positions.

So do not worry about bears.

[Rob]

anybody spending more money on stuff than usual this week? toys, vehicles, vacations, home improvements, etc?

what's your spending/frugality like right now?

Personally, I think I can feel a wave of optimism in me and the people around me. Might go away tomorrow but, heck, I should have acted on it and bought the market yesterday.

[MHD]

It's going to be interesting to see the new wave counts from all those whose current counts are wrong. Neely should have been getting his followers out at lower prices than his stops. Once 61.8% of a move has been retraced, you should step to the sidelines until the dust settles.

[AH]

I guess you do not read Bloomberg. Confidence dropped.

[Mike McQuaid]

The S&P500 chart relabeled the wave 2 to July 8 updating fron the June 23 label.
So my count is: March 6 reversal, 1 wave label March 26 to a running correction and over to the July 8 wave 2 label.

[Account Deleted]

HaHa if u are a bear ur name will soon be changed to NaNa

[MHD]

It will be interesting to see if Neely still feels this is a "trap" as his stops are being taken out!

[Are you enjoying to be a simple asshole?]

I am enjoying the money I made.
Are you enjoying to be a simple asshole?

[Mamma Boom Boom]

A sharp reversal intraday, which is highly likely, will shove the odds of this being a 'bull trap'.

[Upstart]

I agree Ned. Top could be today or early tomorrow. For wavers, why couldn't this rally simply be wave c of a flat, nearly over?

[Upstart]

(expanded flat)

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>>(expanded flat)<<

Exactly! The bulls will get their heads handed to them.

[MHD]

Makets go down when fear sets in. The government has given the investors nothing to fear as they will just bail out any macro problem. No fear equals more buying than selling and higher prices.

[NH]

>as they will just bail out any macro problem.

read. no macro problem has been resolved.

[MHD]

I agree NH that none of the macro problems have been solved, but as long as investors think that the gov will solve all, then fear subsides. With no fear, prices are bid up even though you think they should not.

[NH]

No body cares about what investors think. They use investors to create fear, no fear. It's about creating wealth for GS, Citi..

They do not care about anon_aka_TERA BAAP or his assholes.

[da bear]

here is what i wrote last thursday:

a RALLY for the next two weeks or so would make more sense.
bears tried to push the DOW below 8,000 or 8,100 and were not successful (so far).
next week is options expiration week and those weeks are usually bullish. a rally for two weeks could take the DOW higher to around 8,700 to 9,200 which would put in a decent wave 5. by the looks of things i can see a steep and strong wave 1 up, a shallow wave 2 dip, a long but not strong wave 3, this current pullback which did not breach DOW 8,000. so a short term pop here would put in a nice top.

speaking of sentiment you can can get DIA 87 calls that expire next friday for 5 cents. if the dow has a nice rally for the next few days then you have a chance to make some money...

i haven't read the STU (don't subscribe to it) but it seems as if they are expecting too many big moves in too short a time. although i don't know what an X wave is. but i can see a potential for a five wave count off the March lows.

da bear

link: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/07/those-darned-program-trading-bots.html#comments

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DOW at 8,500 so 8,700 is within striking distance...

da bear

[MHD]

Nothing works 100% of the time, but the bears should have been concerned about the golden cross. It's starting to look like Neely has made the same mistake Bob P. did when the bear market ended in 2003. EWI insisted we would head to even lower lows even after the golden cross appeared. As it turned out....well you know how it turned out. Neely's call of the 956 as the stop is really a bold call. I said in a previous post that he will either look like a huge fool or a genius. The bull is asking him...do ya feel lucky, punk.....well do ya. We will know soon enough!

[MHD]

top, not stop :)

[MHD]

Much to my surprise, Neely still hasn't gotten his longer time frame subscribers out. What's he thinking?

[Upstart]

thinking "top"

[barood]

da bear. Excellent call. you were lonely on this and honestly I acted on your call because you were in the minority camp. Thanks bud.. I made some good $$$$. I still see SPX to 990 in the coming days. Non stop blow off rally until bears bleed severely. The rally is continuing IMO

[barood?]

Why stop at 990? Keep going.

[MHD]

Hopefully, Yelnick will give us some info on Neely's new possible formation. I have no idea what it means nor does my friend. Perhaps DG can also give us some insight.

[RichS]

... Neely ... has screamed "There's a tsunami coming!" for a very long time and anyone who has acted on that prediction has become creamed corn. If you are lucky enough to have a few pennies left after following their advice ...

Get your facts straight. Neely's followers have made some nice profits since the top, including a 32-point trade that was closed earlier this week. As others have pointed out, forecasting and trading are two different things.

[vipul garg]

is anyone trading gold here?short or long?
what do you see.?

mhd,
neely is short or wants to be short,
prechter is bear for 400 dow( maybe its a typo for spx!!).
yelnick is doing all he can to popularise yves ( recessionary times, friend in need is a friend indeed!) incidentally who is also short.
another ewaver robin landry who proclaims' 25 years of correct wave counting 'is also short.

so your contrarian indicator must be making you fully long.if not, maybe
someone(anon) here , who believes we are in 3 of 3 of 3(more 3's here) nested wave can help you buy some calls here.

[MHD]

Just getting worse for the bears. Not a good day when you get your head handed to you on a platter, and get a bull horn stuck in your rectum to the hilt!!

[MHD]

vipul garg....I think Robin Landry's 25 streak just came to an end!!!!

[vipul garg]

940, 8725 are final bear line of sands.

[france_man]

what a misery:
all the ewawe and liquidity index gurus
are in the sand.
nobody know the future as usual

[bubble]

Bears thank to bulls for creating another bubbles.

[da bear]

looks like the DOW is trying to put in a final fifth wave.

link: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djia&sid=1643

i can count 4 waves... why can't EWI? getting out on 7/22 could work. one poster on another thread pointed out mid to late July tops that have occurred. history could repeat itself.

da bear

[dave]

Don Vodopich wrote an Elliottwave book in the 1980's called "Trading for Profit with Precision Timing"

In his book he charts out Elliott/Gann crash conditions...large expanding triangles are one.....another is a triple break of a horizontal line.... another is the "rally back to the 2x1 Gann line".

The Gann 2x1 is a gentle sloping line off the high...when the market rallies back to this 2x1 line, it gives people a sense the market is back to normal near the old highs but when in fact it is in very weak position.

Thats what I believe the SPX is doing here....its looking strong, but actually very weak.

A-B-C flat back to a Gann 2x1 is condition for a big time crash.

[vipul garg]

i feel sad for not getting it.
it was an incorrect head and shoulders formation.when does it is a no go, when prices break through the neckline and move above the right shoulder of 932.
thats what happened.computer programs and alert traer would have detected this.
rally should begin topping at these levels.

[da bear]

i pulled up a chart of DJIA and added the 200 day EMA. well that is just below 9,000. DOW JUST BELOW 9,000 is a decent target.

i also printed the chart out and connected the wave 2 low with the wave 4 low (8,100 or so). since those two were close together and due to the shallow rise of wave 3, a wave 5 high would meet the channel at around 9,000.

a DOW higher corrective high along with a lower corrective high for gold would be a good divergence. another good one would be a higher low for the dollar.

da bear

[Mamma Boom Boom]

A lot of strength at the end of the day. Most likely 'capitulation' (bears taken an ass whipping). One of my short term indicators actually started to turn over at the end of the day (this is one that help me identify the rally was coming last Wed.) Tomorrow morning is key!!!!!

[DG]

Hopefully, Yelnick will give us some info on Neely's new possible formation. I have no idea what it means nor does my friend. Perhaps DG can also give us some insight.

Posted by: MHD | Wednesday, July 15, 2009 at 10:54 AM

Not sure what you mean about a new formation. Are you a subscriber? If so, shoot me an e-mail with some proof at neowavetrader (at) gmail.com. We're having a discussion about the new count on the "Neely subscriber" blog I set up.

If you were already aware of the blog and aren't a subscriber, all I can really say is to repeat what I've said before, which is that until and unless the June 11th price high is broken, Neely will remain bearish.

He doesn't have any trades on right now, though. And before people start yelping about bull horns and rectums (really, you people need some psycho-sexual counseling or you need to go out and find the boyfriend of your dreams, clearly), his Hourly traders made 32 points on the latest trade, the Daily made 4 points and the Weekly lost 9.5 points.

[Forkoholic Serge]

Nice symmetry on H&S
http://www.forkoholic.com/images/shcompl.jpg

I'm counting it as a of B of ABC down
http://www.forkoholic.com/images/shcompl.jpg

[DG]

EWI (and now Neely and EWI and others) has screamed "There's a tsunami coming!" for a very long time and anyone who has acted on that prediction has become creamed corn. If you are lucky enough to have a few pennies left after following their advice you will lose them now, even with discipline and tight stops.

You will hit stop after stop after stop and you will be killed.

All the bears and the anal-retentive modeling has definitely given me the feeling we are going up, up, up. The markets do not respect models, Elliott or fork or "fractal" or otherwise.

Posted by: Rob | Wednesday, July 15, 2009 at 07:45 AM

I have nothing really positive to say about EWI, although I credit Prechter for resuscitating wave theory, but unless you distinguish between Neely's "big picture" track record and other wave theory practitioners, you are potentially missing the boat.

I have 24 e-mails from Neely over the past 3 1/2 years relating to his "big picture" (i.e., looking for a major reversal of a trend that was well-established, not some short-term trading recommendations) view of the various markets he covers. I have reproduced all of these on the NeoWave blog I mentioned. 14 of those calls led almost immediately (within a couple of weeks, sometimes even as little as a few days) to the outcome he forecast. 5 of them were accurate calls, but the market drifted a bit before moving in his direction. An impatient trader might have gotten frustrated, but someone with a little patience would have been rewarded (by "rewarded", I mean the market eventually moved at least 10-20% in the direction he forecast). 3 calls were wrong and 2 are still TBD.

So, dude, basically Neely's made 24 "big picture" calls and was correct on 19 of them. Are you seriously implying that he's the same as Bob "Boy Who Cried Wolf" Prechter and the rest of the people at EWI?

I've also got other information that shows Neely was accurate in calling the mid-90's huge run and the end of the bull in 2000, so there's two more "big picture" calls that went great.

I know that most people aren't keeping track of these things (which is part and parcel of how these folks can stay in business for so long), so I don't blame you for being ignorant of the FACTS, but at least have the guts to admit you don't know what you're talking about.

Markets are always going to do what they are going to do, but reading the signs of mass psychology in market price/time relationships is either feasible or Neely is just about the luckiest "big picture" pundit who's ever lived. Your choice.

[DG]

I should add that, obviously, Neely's past calls are independent of the outcome of his current call, but is it really smart to bet against a man with an almost 80% success record? Again, it's your choice.