Wave 2 Update

Steve Hochberg is out this week so Peter Kendall is filling in the  STU analyses.  His style is much punchier and more chartist. Reminds me of Warner "Let's go to the videotape!" Wolf in sports.  He offered a number of right jabs to the chin of the bullish case tonight in the form of "Let's go to the charts!" one after another.  Their wave [2] is still on, but should undergo a serious correction, beginning with the weakness after the open today and continuing towards Dow8200 (at least). In their count, the Jun11 top was followed by an ABC zigzag down, and for the past week has come back in a countertrend X wave, which likely ended today at the exact 50% retracement level of the zigzag down (Dow8580).  They expect the next wave down to test and go past last Tuesday's low (Dow8287).  

The Dow sports a pretty clear head & shoulders setup, and if we do drop to the neckline (Dow8200), this technical indicator says a fall down to below 7700, the distance below the neckline of the recent Jun11 head.  Futures are down a bit right now, but again as I often say, they often mislead.  Watch the opening tomorrow.  

The head & shoulder pattern also evidences an extended trading range since early May.  To use Zoran parlance, we had a thrust off the Mar6 low and since May have been in a plateau.  The market is seeking order, and many positions are rotating. Head & Shoulder patterns are distribution patterns, where stock positions are rolling away.  The former bulls are bearish and selling to new proto-bulls.  Dumb money or smart money?  Institutions are not increasing positions.  The MACD is showing a negative divergence, meaning declining even as the indices rise (especially NASDAQ, the home of the day trader).  The STU points out that the Naz has the best chance of breaking the Jun11 high, which is a bearish divergence as long as the major indices do not follow.  

The Dollar is hovering in a fourth wave, which Fibonacciman in his bi-weekly newsletter tonight sees as breaking in a triangle.  A sharp break down should follow and drive the US Peso below 78 in the Dollar Index.  

Short weeks like this with a holiday tend to be lightly traded, and often drift up.  Hence a drift before the 'right shoulder' fall shouldn't surprise.  If the 'drift' gains momentum and passes Dow8715, then it may shoot past the Jun11 high and the Final Surge is on.  It appears more likely that we have another week or two of weakness before the summer rally Final Surge.  

Comments

[anon IDIOT. crash]

anon IDIOT. crash

TOMORROW we have the monthly NON-farm payroll report...

WHEN was the last time we had a GOvernment report..

that did not SLAUGHTER the shorts???

TOmorrow i suspect that NEELY will require PROCTOLOGIST to remove BULL HORNS which will be FIRMLY THRUST into his RECTUM!!!!

hopefully he willhave INSURANCE CARD because he will need SPECIALIST!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horn_(anatomy)

HAHAHHAHAHAHAH

Posted by: anon_aka_TERA BAAP | Wednesday, July 01, 2009 at 08:49 PM

[anon_aka_TERA BAAP]

HAHAHAH!! CLOWN, you must be KIDDING..

this DIP will be BOUGHT in first 30 minutes of trading

i am buying SSO and BGU big-TIME in pre-market

TERA BAAP

[anon, if you want to open shitty mouth, post your price]

anon,

if you want to open shitty mouth, post your price of SSO and BGU NOW.

Let's figure out how much you lost

[EN]

Looks like wave B ended at yesterday's high. Still short.

[OK, it's the end of the first 30 minutes of trading, where are the buyers?]

Well?

[what's left for poor anon]

clearly anon does not know waves.

clearly anon does not know the relationship between gold and stock markets.

clearly anon cannot predict government report.

anon, repeat what I say

"C-R-A-S-H"

not clown.

IDIOT!

[iota]

hey vipul garg
"as per my analysis ,for sp500 there exists two possibilities currently:
1. it rallies to 925-930 kind of levels and then moves down.
2.it keeps falling to 826 levels atleast and then moves up 890-900 levels.

however looking at time and structure , i have option 1 as my preffered count.
a little rally to get some initial bears out and bulls really steaming."

perfectly spot on. i like what you post.keep posting mate.930 it is .

[Jim]

why 925-930?

[OK, now it's two hours of trading, where are the buyers?]

Well?

[vipul garg]

iota,

thanks.

jim,

this is the minimum market had to do at the structure i was looking at before it went down.
(it is till not confirmed that it has gone down )

[Dog Whisperer]

Drop will accelerate any minute now. It is 1:52pm.

My models may not always be accurate, but they're precise!

[papillon]

Dog: whats your precision level then? +/-?

[Steve]

Dog Whisperer,

what are factors in your model? I hate black box models.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

-----Excellent Talking Points, Recently-----

-wave [2] is still on
-Jun11 top was followed by an ABC zigzag down
-past week has come back in a countertrend X wave
-Dow sports a pretty clear head & shoulders setup
- MACD is showing a negative divergence
-The Dollar is hovering in a fourth wave
-we are in or have just ended wave (4)
-I rarely go short but this looks too tempting
-We had about as clear a signal on Jun11 that a top was in
-The last move up does look impulsive but is part of an ABC ABC 12345 pattern
-The pause is still on; the final surge awaits.

It's a shame no one chose to pick up the ball and run with it. Fact is, there are very few individual thinkers in the world, anymore. It's a land of 'sheeple'.

[???]

It's a shame no one chose to pick up the ball and run with it.

???

[Upstart]

I'm on board, Mr. B.! I've been establishing shorts since before you "Drop'd the Hammer". I've been talking about a possible ending diagonal in the XAU since early June and I knew the DOW was in a similar place, if a different pattern. I expect at least all of this quarter to be below June's high.

[Al]

elliottfractals.com

Hank,

My MFT Signal has not been working for a week, and you are not answering.

What's going on??

[Hank Wernicki]

Al if this is you : [email protected]

Try it now .... just checking my messages here today

Hank

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>>I'm on board, Mr. B.! I've been establishing shorts since before you "Drop'd the Hammer".<<

EXCELLENT!

[Hank Wernicki]

Al you are all set now ... Happy Holiday

Hank

[Hank Wernicki]

There are 2 instance for a bottom on the ESU9

IF it stops near 893 Stop around the close ( confirmation ) <<<< it's a bottom for Monday

Today is the " 3rd fractal instance " on a 2 hour chart

Enjoy the Weekend !

Hank

[Mamma Boom Boom]

---A Happy 4th Of July Message---

http://www.bushongbusiness.com/webbbs/index.cgi?noframes;read=18145

[Dog Whisperer]

Basically, I have little palm-pilot-y things with which a handful of money managers report their moods to me during the day. I plug those values into a cellular automaton model of contagion, sort of like Conway's "Game of Life" and see what I get. It's worked well for me so far.

[VirginiaJim]

Yelnick, thanks for all your efforts.

Two observations.

First, am I correct that Fibonacciman (Jeff) is on board with the imminent hyperinflation (dollar collapses) scenario? That hardly squares with EWFF which sees the dollar soaring just as imminently. Since the dollar and market have been dependably inverse to one another over the last year, Fib man must be expecting the market to soar on the dollar demise/hyperinflation trade. I guess this is where the rubber meets the road for analysts. I'm on board with Prechter and deflation but I prefer Yves expanded flat intermediate 4 to EWIs primary 2 (which takes longer). I don't agree the final top is in for all indices; NDX wants one more higher high IMO. If I'm right, it'll occur very soon. So I don't see the market dilly dallying around but going south after a very quick down/up into the mid late July. The final high in mid/late July dovetails with Armstrong's recent belief the worst of the waves (not the last) will soon commence with an expected completion in early 2010.

Second, I have a pet peve with most the head and shoulders applications. Edwards/Magee never intended it to apply to trends less than primary or secondary and they commented on it in that regard as I recall. And even at that, they handicapped the success of a confirmed H&S meeting its objective at 60-70% as I recollect. Maybe there's been an exhaustive contemporary study of H&Ss that now concludes they're more reliable than when tradnind was so slow.

One last item of note. We are in the Puetz Crash Window and following are the dates I computed:
July 1 (yesterday) the first day of the Puetz Crash Window which is 6 days before a full moon which is before and within 6 weeks of a solar eclipse,
July 7 full moon and lunar eclipse,
July 22 total solar eclipse,
August 6, full moon and lunar eclipse, and
August 10, close of the Puetz Crash Window which is 3 days after the first full moon after a solar eclipse.

My standard caution. Crashes do not occur OUTSIDE the window (Puetz found 8 out of 8 of the greatest crashes occurred IN the window) but that does not mean a crash WILL occur in every window. After all, there are astrologically 2 Puetz Windows per year and we all know we don’t have two crashes per year

Jim

[Upstart]

Gap down on low volume - I wouldn't be surprised if today is "b" of a little flat and we go back to, probably above, yesterday's high next week. That would fit my scenario because I don't see us in an a-b-c down from the June high like EWI. I'm looking for a small 5 down from the June high to 7000-something to be the first leg of "B" down in an ongoing flat that began at the March low. So the "little flat" would be wave ii within it.

[Upstart]

...or, alternatively, a deep X-wave down is a possibility.

[dk]

volume is a pretty useless predictor of anything imo

puetz might necessary but not sufficient. might not be either.

this market sucks. I can't believe things are as stable as they are. genocides, famines, and plagues have been shockingly rare for

[yelnick]

VirginaJim, let me post my answer in a new post

[sahil kapoor]

http://sahilkaps.wordpress.com

Nearly all equity indices are very near to top. crude oil has already topped out.

see this link - http://sahilkaps.wordpress.com/