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« Decline is Nigher or Market Spikes Higher | Main | China Bubble Update: Markets Open Down UPDATED »

Wednesday, August 12, 2009


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da bear

maybe the reason that the Chinese are hesitant to buy our Treasuries is that they are, uh, broke?

da bear

Forkoholic Serge | Elliott Wave Forkology

so why FXP not moving?


This is a huge story and I think there is a lot more to it than the end of stimulus funding and reversion in equity prices. What will happen to consumption? How will major infrastructure projects turn out? Tourism? A deeper dive into the ramifications could be extremely valuable analysis. I'm working the chinese gold bullion angle exclusively, which you may be aware, is also in a bubble fueled by consumer speculation.

Mike McQuaid

XLF 60 minute chart off the July 8 low is showing an impulse waveform with wave 4 visible and possibly complete. Assuming wave 5 to be approximately the height of wave 1 and assuming wave 4 is complete, wave 5 may top out at about 15.30. That's a lot of assuming yet it's a baseline to start getting a feel for this market with the wave 5 top a good spot to short for a swing trade. Associated factors to anticipate at the 5 top are an exhaustion gap and a variety of topping candles.


Most economists are now calling the recession over. This is going to be so interesting to see who is correct. The bulls see this as a repeat of 2003 bottom and the huge rise that came after. The bears have us in a 1930 bear market rally that once finished....well we all know what happened after.
So who is going to look like total fools and who is not? Can the feds, who have pumped 2.3 trillion into the stock market continue to screw with the waves with even more trillions if need be. Bob P. would have been correct with his predictions had it not been for the feds. What good is predicting social mood when you can just print your way to a better mood. They can continue this as long as the world accepts the dollar as something of value, even though it's backed by nothing but trillions of debt.
We will know soon enough whether Bob P. has made another huge mistake( and most other ewavers) about much more to go on the downside, regardless of what the feds do, or just a repeat of 2003-2007!


MHD, ponder this quote: “When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen”’s-rule-9/


>So who is going to look like total fools and who is not?

If you think recession is over at 10% unemployment rate, I guess you have to be a fool.

da bear

the March low in stocks mirrored the 1938 low following the 1937-1938 correction. i pointed that out a while back. i wonder if this means anything going forward...

da bear

Forkoholic Serge | Elliott Wave Forkology

$SPX daily chart


Forkoholic Serge, Pretty $SPX daily chart. I too am lost for words.

Forkoholic Serge | Elliott Wave Forkology

Crash day tomorrow! dust off your crash helmets ;-))

"Looking ahead, one of the next big crash dates could possibly be Black Friday, 14th August, 2009. Here are the reasons, in order of importance. 1. Saturn within orb of opposing Uranus. 2. Lunar node in Aquarius (nadir of the down cycle - Louise McWhirter's theory). 3. Sun opposing Jupiter and Neptune. 4. Mars squaring Uranus. "


Bullion-Advisor, please drop in some comments or ping me about a guestblog if you wish to go deeper in this story. Slight bounce today, looks like a technical retrace. We shall see about tomorrow and more particularly Monday


Fork, great chart. Let me ask you a forkish question - couldn't you count the move off Mar6 as a simple corrective pattern, with the first wave a complex 3-waver to early may, then a two month irregular flat with Jun11 the b wave and Jul8 the c wave, and now the final 5-waver? It fits your chart as well; only issue I have had so far with this count is the drop from Jun11 to Jul8 looks like a 3 when it should be a 5. Also, given the pattern, looks more like a zigzag than a flat, and hence the mar6-may2 pattern should count as a 5, which is a bit hard to do.

Forkoholic Serge | Elliott Wave Forkology

I'm thinking A ended in May, May - July was irregular B,
and now C. I think May-July is related to November - Jan fractal so that’s where irregular B comes from. Its a bit ugly, I know.
or it could be ABCDE EDT/wedge kinda pattern

Typically if wave occupies only 1/2 of the fork I label it as corrective. That's my quantitative definition of corrective wave. There are some exceptions of course.

Hank Wernicki

As Long as the NASDAQ stays below it's High, the probability is high that a nice correction is before us.

Got a buy on the XAU .....though not sure how high yet

Mike B

FXP is a horrible investment vehicle to use. Does anyone know of a good and easy way to short China?? I think Jim Rogers market analysis will not pan out. I am sticking to the great Great Depression in China major resession in the US close to 15% unemployment when the bears blow the bulls backs out.

Gleen Loser Neely

I am a loser...
I went short at 991 and I my stop at 1016.50 will be hit tomorrow!!
This is the third tine in a row I am wrong.!!
Please subscribe to
I need more money from your subscribers to keep gambling...


Glenn Loser Neely



The more I read the more I seem to get confused about what is really happening, and how one can prepare. For example, being OUT OF of the market in one's 401K can be dangerous given a hyperinflation scenario (see Fleck/Faber argument below); and being IN the market can be dangerous based on what we believe according to technicals. So what action to take?

Can you possibly comment on this if you get some time? I would be very interested in hearing your views. Many thanks.



Are you, by some odd chance, the "final Serge" that our people have been waiting and waiting for?

Josef :)


Josef, any hyperinflation will only come after deflation, which will come with massive debt write-offs. We have been in a moderate deflation for a year. It will be a destruction of the USD type of event if it comes. You will see it coming. Right now the bigger issues are, has this bear rally about ended, and is a major next wave of banking crises coming soon. On the first, I think we are within a few days to a few months of the end of the rally; and we are about a year out on the next banking crisis. What I am watching in between those two events is the bursting of the China Bubble, which I estimate as happening by year end.


Will the bursting of china bubbles cause the whole world stock to bash down ?


"Can the feds, who have pumped 2.3 trillion into the stock market "

But HAVE they? I don't think the money when into the market. I am not sure WHERE it went, other than the pockets of various politicians, but come on. 2.3T would have done a LOT more than even THIS great rally, don't ya think

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