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« Final Surge? | Main | Final Surge! »

Thursday, August 20, 2009


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George Soroes

I don't think you will have much luck talking the Chinese market down. Third waves up starting in Shanghai and SnP. Best of luck to the shorts!


Is the China Boom Bogus? No China is in 1909 in terms of the DOW


Dow Jones Industrial Average
Index Value: 9,350.05
Trade Time: 4:02pm ET
Change: Up 70.89 (0.76%)
Prev Close: 9,279.16

I expected a gain of +95 but I got +70 today, cant complain.....
But Friday tomorrow Uncle Sam/Goldman Sach will get me +165 to close around 9515, failing which 21-08-2009 shall be deemed a Yankee-Curse-Day...

I. Sosceles

One of your most insightful posts, Yelnick.


I think that was pretty obvious. After USSR its china's turn. but question is who is going to gain? As EWI says "there is a phoenix somewhere." EWI has INDIA in sight. but the rally in india is corrective not impulsive as they think.I can see a nice wxy developing B wave on sensex not a la dow 2003-2007. Therefore,I see no market anywhere in the world with nascent offshoots of bull run not in near term for at least a few years.
Can you shed some light on this. thanks for the post.

Mike McQuaid

NDX daily chart, Bollinger band (20,2) is a tight 60.19. RSI(14) is 58, trend is up. No topping candle formation is present, just a sideways trading range for 20 days (one day shy of fib 21). From my little Okie dugout this is a recipe for a rally.

Mike McQuaid

NDX is just shy of the trendline across the top since October '07.

Mike McQuaid

XLF showed two hanging men on the 13 & 14th and gapped down. Today the gap closed and the index closed at the high, all the while the middle Bollinger band hasn't been touched for weeks. RSI(14) hasn't fallen under 50 for weeks either. This is still a bullish chart.

Alfie Andn

Location: New York in transit after Highland Holiday

Time of Day: 7pm

Time Spent: 2 hours

Price: 500

Her Place: she visited my hotel

Description: About 5ft tall wavy brown hair, 38 years old with a spot on her chin and a stud through her tongue.

Comments: Ruby was suppose to stay all night, however after a meal and obtaining advance payment, she made her way to the toilet and then disappeared. Beware of using this girl, she is not very attractive and very unreliable. I phoned the agency and they did not even appear sorry

Recommended: No

Would You Return: No


Alfie, I had her and she was great! Definitly two thumbs up!


Alfie Andn and Kld

Are you stupid or what?
You admit you violated the law and leave your IP address/identity.

Alfie Andh

Violated the law, same as Goldman Sachs huh!
part of the coming great depression culture - get used to it! The roaring sixties, seventies, eighties, nineties are over
Have you not studied the great Precter Socionomics - Stupid!
Stock up your freezer! Slaughter your own chickens _ Money isn’t everything and will soon be worthless -
My reports present an insight in social mood and if studied carefully they are value tips on sentiment and short term market behaviour. They complement and add to the great analysis of Elliot theory in this forum.
THE KID AND I ARE INNOCENT we do this in the name of research into social mood, essential in deciding future market moves, just as you do it with Elliot wave theory. Visiting cat houses has long been a traditional tool in value investing.


Yelnick...what's your view on the timing of wave C and its bottom, if we actually have a Prim C down? Some ewavers have us in a swift decline and a bottom in March 2010. Neely had us bottoming by the end of the year with his current count, which he may or may not change. EWI seems to be less clear on how fast this decline might be. Any thoughts?
Also wanted to say your site is always interesting to read and I always look forward to your articles and views.


MHD, thanks for your kind remarks. As to the bottom IF we have the big wave 3 (EWI count), they have not been definitive on a date. In contrast Neely has or at least had pegged Jan2010. Using a Gann methodology - same slope down as up -he is likely to move that out in time by two months and a slightly less steep slope to beyond March.

Given that EWI's wave 1 lasted from Oct07 to Mar09, or 17 months, I would expect their wave 3 to last at least that long, if not closer to 27 months (1.6x). If we top here in Sept, that would count out to a range of Mar- Nov 2011. And we wouldn't be done; a wave 4 would follow and then the final wave 5.

We can overlay some seasonality and cyclicality to these numbers. Normal good season is Nov to May; bad season Sep to Nov. The four-year Presidential cycle should bottom around election 2010 and peak around election 2012. The four year cycle occasionally right shifts its mid-term low (eg 1987). But a model which has a bottom in late 2010 or early 2011 fits, and then a wave 4 high around election 2012, and a final drop to the mid-term 2014. If we fail to really bottom in late 2010, the seasonal factor (buy in Nov, sell in May) may right-shift the eventual wave 3 bottom to fall 2011.


As of 45-minutes ago, I'm long Gold, Silver, & China (in that order)...looking for a 12-month return of +350% on Gold, +90% on Silver, and +50% on the Shanghai index...I will exit all three positions once my profit targets are reached.

And no, I'm not using stops. Boom or bust, baby!

Neely the Guru

EWI been nailing this market with high precision while NEOWAVE, with its false claims, has been miserable forecaster.


Gold, Silver, and Shanghai index going up, up, up; while USD & US Bond prices going down, down, down over the next 2-years.

US Stocks should trade within a tight (10%) range for the next 2-years.


Carl Futia says, for us Elliott fans, the move has all the characteristics of the third wave off the March low.

Then it appears we're in the 3rd of a 3rd.


Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value: 9,517.21
Trade Time: 3:32pm ET
Change: 167.08 (1.78%)

Prev Close: 9,350.05
"But Friday tomorrow Uncle Sam/Goldman Sach will get me +165 to close around 9515, failing which 21-08-2009 shall be deemed a Yankee-Curse-Day...

Posted by: chuan | Thursday, August20,2009 at 03:33 PM "
Just for record, all my transactions happily completed at 9515 around 3.30 your time at 9515 , to the dot, QED.Handsome rewards.

I am grateful for the invaluable helps rendered by Goldman Sachs and Bernanke et al, failing which
today August21 would have to be declared "Yankee Curse " Day.

The fact that i am thousands of miles away in a foreign cave(n never step foot in this Yankee land) can spot your Dow's movements almost to-the-dot (9515 against the intraday peak, of 9517) speak volume of how bogus and cartoony your Dow Market is.It's such a simple straight forward matter, and yet i read of all sorts of contorted and confusing (misleading) arguments being churned day in and day out here and all other places.

FYI, i am using a simple and primitive method (5000yrs old, you know(remember?) the "Chinese"-approach(that which ought to be cursed, everytime you failed to talk the market down n humiliated/hurt by the market)

I shall name my Dow method as chuanwave to make it proprietory , or CHUANWAVE (so as to be in the same league as EWI,NEOWAVE....)

Any taker/investor? we are open for business!


Happy "Yankee-Curse-Day"!!! Now What?

Neely the Guru


u think this is the top?


psycho_puppies/Neely the Guru

Sorry, i missed this page.

Dow should range-trade moving 9500 to 9440 to 9595 to 9360 ....then peak(top) 9635-9650 on Sept 14 n Sept15 followed by 5 days correction of 500points(5%),supported around 9160 Sept21 n 22.

You long or short?

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