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« Yves on China Stocks Turning Point | Main | Have We Topped? »

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

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Bill Johnson

I Sept 17 for 180 days from March 21

yelnick

Bill, for Gann 180 meant 180 degrees, or half a year. He also used it for 180 days, but when you dive into his numerology his approach works out as degrees or angles with days an approximation. This year the Autumnal Equinox is not Sep21, which people commonly believe, but Sep22. It will be Sep23 next year. It creeps forward until a leap year then jumps back. Also, the orbit of the Earth is elliptical and the periods between solstices and equinoxes are not a constant spread. We are further out from the Sun in the Northern Hemisphere summer, meaning the equinox-solstice-equinox periods are longer, and closer in during Winter, meaning the periods are shorter; as a consequence the Autumnal Equinox is typically later than Sep21 since it comes after two longer periods.

For clarity I modified the body of the post.

TwoJacks

Hello. I'm just learning about Gann and I posted about some of his important dates the other day -
http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com/2009/09/wd-gann-continued.html

September 23rd was one he had listed as a potential seasonal change. If yesterday was the turn or just a swing high, Gann's dates this year have pegged 6 such swings, some major and some minor.

Anyway, thanks for the update and the summarization Yelnick.

Cheers

min

Seems we still have a bit more to go to the upside. Of course EWI has both bases covered but the mostly
one-sided consensus makes it seem more so now.

Just the same, I still have my stops in place because of Cary's prophetic 20 year dream in the last thread.

DG

min,

We could have seen the price high, but not the end of the bull pattern from the March lows. As often happens with big moves, the price high or low doesn't necessarily mean the pattern is over, just that it is nearly over.

elskid

"We could have seen the price high, but not the end of the bull pattern from the March lows. As often happens with big moves, the price high or low doesn't necessarily mean the pattern is over, just that it is nearly over."

This sounds a bit overly complicated. If the "price high" has posted, how can the "bull pattern" NOT be over. If you are saying the the high is in but that the decline will not start right away, I can agree. But a bull pattern by definition means higher highs and higher lows. I have lost a lot of money watching a "price high" violated but stayed in figuring I could ride out the move up since it could certainly NOT go TOO much higher.

min

Well you could have a truncated last move up (should have been higher but aborted)finishing a pattern. That's probably what DG meant.

I won't be going short right away either. Market moves for the foreseable future will be large in both directions and plenty to be made in both both ways if one exercises patience and keeps focused.

Cary Lloyd

We might drop, but no lower than 1000 on the spx. I have posted about this phenomenon before, which I call the "Volatility Bear Market." We will be pretty tightly ranged between 1000 and 1200 on the s and p for the next few decades, which is pretty hard for some people to accept, but they eventually will. What will happen is a bit fascinating... as more people become convinced of this range it will self-reinforce, ultimately creating a multi-year period when we fluctuate no more than a point or two every day around 1100. This is, obviously, an amazing opportunity for those who get in early. The best way to profit in the near term is to write options contracts.

Mamma Boom Boom

Carl, can't you find anything to do. Do they allow you in the court yard?

DG

This sounds a bit overly complicated. If the "price high" has posted, how can the "bull pattern" NOT be over. If you are saying the the high is in but that the decline will not start right away, I can agree. But a bull pattern by definition means higher highs and higher lows.

No, in wave theory a "bull pattern" is a pattern accompanying bullish mass psychology. Price highs are the sign of the "top" in bullish psychology, but until the decline takes on a momentum that turns psychology bearish, the bull pattern isn't over. As of right now, I give it 50-50 that the price high is in, but the pattern I've been tracking since mid-July says the "bull pattern" isn't over. My analysis could be wrong, obviously.

Your point about price highs being violated is a separate issue.

DG

Well you could have a truncated last move up (should have been higher but aborted)finishing a pattern. That's probably what DG meant.

This is more or less what I meant. The wave count I have been working since July is playing out such that we moved back down in a manner consistent with expectations. We may or may not go under the September lows. If we do, that would solidify the idea that the price high is in. If we don't, I would be open to a marginally-higher price high at some point in October. A drop from there followed by another new high would cause me to revisit that count. I think you can short here, with a stop at yesterday's high, but it might not really start to pay off for a while and if we get that last run, whether to a new high or not, some of your paper profits will get eaten. I am on the cusp of entering short, but only expect a retest of the September lows. Anything more than that wouldn't shock me, but it would be "gravy" relative to my expectation and I still wouldn't consider it a "position" trade.

Brian

Great post Yelnick!

Rob

I don't believe that Tony Caldaro has put a fork in the P2 rally. He says there has been a 5-wave move up from 991.97. That was the bottom of wave 2 of C. He says there have been a 3-wave move up from 978.51 which was the start of wave 1 of C.

Unless we fall below 1039.47, the door is open for the rally to resume and perhaps higher highs.

chuan

Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value: 9,718.40
Trade Time: 3:22pm ET
Change: 30.15 (0.31%)
Prev Close: 9,748.55
Open: 9,749.99
Day's Range: 9,666.03 - 9,805.39
52wk Range: 6,440.08 - 11,218.50
----------------------------------------------

ChuanWave: Dow's Closings

Sept 23 9778 -- 9768
Sept 24 9878 -- 9867
Sept 25 9912 -- 9900
Sept 28 9895
Sept 29 10087
Sept 30 10047

vipul garg

i like chuan's matter of fact kind of post.

i never knew that dow closing was forecastable to such precision.

nevertheless, everyone deserves fair attempt especially when they post real time/in advance.

chuan

Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value: 9,718.40
Trade Time: 3:22pm ET
Change: 30.15 (0.31%)
Prev Close: 9,748.55
Open: 9,749.99
Day's Range: 9,666.03 - 9,805.39
52wk Range: 6,440.08 - 11,218.50
----------------------------------------------
Sorry for error on the dates

ChuanWave: Dow's Closings

Sept 24 9778 -- 9768
Sept 25 9878 -- 9867
Sept 28 9912 -- 9900
Sept 29 9895
Sept 30 10087
Oct 01 10047
)ct 02 9968
Oct 05 9974
Oct 08 10066
Oct 09 10043
Oct 10 10164

min

Cary:

Does Elvis live?

min

What's a Chuan wave? Is that a Chinese Elliott wave or something?

psycho_puppies

It looks like RIMM woke up the bear and he is really pissed off. Tomorrow should be fun.

Cary Lloyd

Elvis Presley?

Mamma Boom Boom

Market closed on a weak note

Hank Wernicki


Long UUP

psycho_puppies

United University Professions (UUP) is the union representing more than 34000 academic and professional faculty on 29 State University of New York campuses... I would short that LOL ...JK

Bird

I can sense the excitement building. Is this it? The top we've all been trying to feel in the dark? It could be. But it would not be a clean top by the timing methods I follow. Or perhaps not as major as we would expect. Time will tell.

Taz

DG

I believe the ASX 200 may be tracing out a triangle here in OZ to terminate the move so I am with you. Today's drop will be B.

Taz

Cary Lloyd

Some of you may remember that I announced that we would be entering a tight range for the major indices over the next 20-30 years, far tighter than many expect. Today's action corroborates my observations and predictions. We did not come close to 1000 (although we did drop!) nor did we nose up toward the upper bound of 1200 which should hold for many years.

I have heard nothing to refute the 90% probability measure I ascribed to this event and I am not surprised. My analysis isn't some child's pipe dream, it is the carefully measured elucidation of dreams that have been scrupulously recorded for my conscious self.

I will post more about my methods soon, suffice to say that there is NO CHANGE to what I have written in previous posts.

Jay

Oh, I beg to differ Carl. Your analysis is nothing more than a "pipe dream". Maybe you should put that pipe down and open some windows!

Dreaming

I would ascribe to the suggestion there is a 90% probabilty Cary is having a good laugh.

DG

I have heard nothing to refute the 90% probability measure I ascribed to this event and I am not surprised.

That's probably because we're all already bored by you.

DG

I would ascribe to the suggestion there is a 90% probabilty Cary is having a good laugh.

"Good" being a subjective term, I'm sure.

DG

I believe the ASX 200 may be tracing out a triangle here in OZ to terminate the move so I am with you. Today's drop will be B.

I've got the S&P in the leg down before the last leg up. That "last leg up" would be the A of a Triangle to end the entire move from the March low at a lower high, although the top of the A could make a higher high.

min

Cary:

Is Elvis alive? Is Nostradamus' spirit still among us? Is your real name Prechter? Are you an aspiring Guru?

min

"Oh, I beg to differ Carl. Your analysis is nothing more than a "pipe dream". Maybe you should put that pipe down and open some windows!"

Bwaahh haaa haaa!

It's probably true too. He's probably got a hold of a peace pipe and some peyote from the local tribe...

...well whatever works for him I suppose.

Cary, you should market yourself as the

PEYOTE PROGNOSTICATOR


dan

Cary: as Vipul said to Chuan ealier in this post "nevertheless, everyone deserves fair attempt especially when they post real time/in advance"

Keep posting, I will be interested to see how your projections play out.

Cary Lloyd

I just spent the last five minutes reading these hurtful things and had myself a good cry. I guess people can be nasty and I guess I'm not too old to learn. Too bad the lesson was a sad one.

If it makes you feel better to say I am a peyote smoking asylum inmate, I suppose you are welcome to share your meanness. I don't touch drugs. All I do is dream and share what I think are reasoned ideas. I don't make fun of your Elliott wave mumbo jumbo.

You've hurt me but I will recover. Doubtless there are some of you as appalled by the lack of manners and kindness of your peers here. This is not addressed to you.

Good luck.

psycho_puppies

Cary,
Post some real time trades or positions. Say more about your theory etc. When did you come up with this theory? Personally I believe in E waves. Honestly, I think at this point society is too volatile and short tempered to have a 200-point S&P variation for 20 years. Don’t cry about It, either grow a spine and try to prove your point or STFU.


KRG

Cary:

You cann't let other's comments bother you especially if you come out with a radical point of view. EW may not be mumbo jumbo.. at the worst, you could say it is a tautology, as there are always vaild counts available ex-post for any market action; if not ex-ante. For many (self included), it is a probability game in which one looks at improving the chances of getting it right. At the same time, I wouldn't disregard a strong sub-conscious driven feeling

It would require guts to give a 20 year prediction, but please come back here in case if we get different market levels and share what went wrong

In the meanwhile, you could give more perspective of your underlying theory or hunch or "unusual situation" etc..

min

I ..... I ..... Have ...... SINNNEDDD!

Lord, Please forgive me for I have wrongfully accused an honest man.


No, seriously If you were being sincere, I apologize. But you have been posting your nebulous theory over the last 3 or so threads without elaborating much.

Can you see how you might come across as just being a bit too bored while we are all waiting for something meaningful to happen...

...I knew I should have said Pixie Dust instead of peyote...

...oh well, live and learn.

OracleLurker

Cary - whatever your motivation i find it interesting that your dreams of minimal volatility should be revealed to us just as the VIX is putting in what appears to be a double bottom.

(i'm not implying that the vix has bee anything other then a worthless inidcator of price action for several years now)

Cary Lloyd

Any thoughts on the metal Chromium? My brother-in-law bought some and has done really well. Also might be a good hedge against helicopter manufacturers/tourism.

Le Chiffre

Such as in Helicopter Ben?

teaf

am i missing something or does EWI label a 3 wave move as a 5th which is not an ending diagonal - looks to me like that was B and we are finishing an expanded flat 2 for the 3 of 3 of 3 blast off - does anyone see that?

Virginia Jim

Due to my pathetic timing, I’ve sojourned these last two weeks with some timing books. I’m extremely heavy puts again from the first of this week after having been a loser in the last two expirations. My timing is now influenced by my re reading of Chris Carolan’s “The Spiral Calendar” and some observations I’ll propose below.

But first, the ascending triangles in all indices remain valid by classic definition. The inverted head and shoulders (head and shoulders top) in two indices remain entirely invalid by classic definition. Elliott Wave counts five complete waves, but recent highs can morph into a 4th wave triangle with yet another high. Investor sentiment, by most every measures, has reached extreme highs. Only the most bullish can ignore the classic signs. Nothing changed over the last two months except the greater likelihood of an imminent top. Or less “not imminent.”

What I’ve noted in re reading Chris Carolan’s The Spiral Calendar (“SC”) can be gleaned from his first chapter. It’s pretty darn simple but I’d like a student of SC to tell me where I am wrong.

For non SC people, Carolan correlated the 1987 crash and the preceding lows and highs (four dates) to the same (within 1 day) lunar dates in 1929. So, what’s the odds of that correlation? Pretty darn low. As Carolan discovered, the number of days between the two sets of four dates in 1929 and 1987) are a Fibonacci function of the number of moons between the dates. Specifically 717.1 moons (synodic month) between the dates squared is the 29th Fibonacci number or 514229. And, at 29.5306 days per synodic month X 717.1 moons, that’s 21,176 days. So, October 29, 1929 projected at the Fib number 514229 gives the square root 717.1 moons which gives 21,176 days yielding October 19, 1987. Carolan applied 21,176 days to four key dates in 1929 and they were a near perfect correlation with comparable dates in 1987. And, that’s 58.0 calendar years between the two dates, which I find to have further significance below.

Well, 2009 doesn’t work with 1929. In other words, you add any of the Fibonacci/lunar sequences resulting from taking the square root of a Fib sequence number (which results in lunar months) and adding the implied days to a 1929 date won’t yield any date in 2009; period. Oh, that’s too bad. But 1929 did “predict” 1987. Well, guess what? 1987 has plenty of Fibonacci “hits” in 2009 using the 25th Fibonacci number and the implied days based on the synodic month. And they appear to be good candidates. But before I get to them, consider this. 58.0 calendar years between 1987 divided by 22.1 calendar years between 1987 and all four of the dates I’ll be computing below. That’s .381 vs a perfect Fib number of .382. Not a bad Fibonacci coincidence. Get the drift?

In the link below there’s a table of the dates I’m looking at. Of course, the 1929 versus 1987 discoveries are Chris Carolan’s, but, to the best of my knowledge, the projection of 1987 to 2009 are a new proposition.

http://www.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Jim/folders/Jing/media/e78ae4c6-8eb2-4977-b8d6-001fe77b25c8

Look at the only projection date that has been passed at this point of 2009. Using the May 20, 1987 low the comparable projection low based on the quarter root of the 25th Fibonacci number X 29.5306 days per synodic month, you get July 11, 2009. That was the obvious reactionary low of the move up from March 9, 2009. So, of 4 dates 1987 would project to key dates in 2009, the first and only one passed to date was a “hit.”

They say a chart is the better medium of explanation. On the following chart I’ve correlated the “last low date” before the crash so that 2009, 1987 and 1929 are comparable (exactly in time but only comparable in price as I had to squeeze a bit vertically to get them on the same page).

http://www.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Jim/folders/Jing/media/14349cfa-11c9-403f-b2aa-1108e4f527a5

For the quick study of this stuff, the dates to watch, then, are a final high on about 10/16/2009, a lower high on 11/23/2009, and a crash beginning 12/10/2009. Judge this whole diatribe for yourself in advance or, if these things come true, they’ll either be right or wrong. If they are right, the final high will be October 16, 2009 (OPEX), followed by a move down thereafter (intermediate EW wave 1 of primary wave 2), then a reactionary high (2nd intermediate EW wave) on November 23, 2009 with a crash (EW intermediate wave 3 of primary wave 3) December 10, 2009 comparable to October 29, 1929 or October 19, 1987.

I haven’t read the apparent SC 1929 and 1987 correlation to 2009 via the Fib relation of SC 22.1 years/58.0 years or the identification of the 4 key dates in 2009 per the table above. So if anyone has a link to further development of these ideas. And, of course, I’d kindly appreciate any SC pros pointing out my (all too frequent) errors in logic.

Jim

Cary Lloyd

Teaf, I've spent the last hour trying to see the expanded flat 2 you are talking about and cannot. Sometimes I find it helps to turn the chart upside down and label it and then invert the labels, which can help you get past a bullish or bearish bias you might have without even realizing it. It can also help to switch to a daily, weekly or even monthly basis in order to filter out the little crud that can sometimes trip you up. On the other hand, sometimes that little crud is essential to knowing where you are, so be careful!

LeChiffre, Chromium is an important component of helicopters.

I'd love to hear people's thoughts on Chromium because I'm thinking of entering a straddle.

Mamma Boom Boom

The story of the day: http://www.bushongbusiness.com/webbbs/index.cgi?noframes;read=18261

Confirming what Meredith Whitney has been saying.

Cary Lloyd

Ned Busong's Capital Systems was an interesting read and I recommend it. I did not know that you had Capital Systems, Ned, and I am sorry if I treated you like an amateur. Clearly you are not. If you were angry (or still are) it is probably because you put a lot of work into this stuff and don't like being treated like an amateur! So... understandable. But I would appreciate it if you would refrain from insults no matter how improbable my ideas seem to you at present.

I went ahead with the Chromium/helicopter trade. Let's hope if Bernanke inflates he chooses to keep his word and use helicopters!!

The comparisons to 1987/29/2009 are fine except that we will not crash below 1000 on the s and p cash basis.

teaf

Cary,

you can't see it because its not 3-3-5 or because some other reason?
put A where EWI's IV is and B where their 5 is and now in C
3-3-5 = II

Hank Wernicki


I'm seeing a big counter trend rally here at 1041 for the SPX IF the selling does not continue.

da bear

stocks and gold acting fishy.
like they want to go down.
DOW 10,000 is what DOW 300 was in 1930.
hugely important.
psychologically significant.
ultimately elusive.

... oh, I have also posted a special report on gold with my long-term wave counts and some price targets.
tell me what you think!
link: http://www.phpbbplanet.com/damessageboard/viewtopic.php?t=9197&mforum=damessageboard


da bear

Cary Lloyd

It's funny but true... Fish is acting "fishy", too. Cod prices have dropped while stocks remain plentiful but long-term contracts with processors and frozen food distributors are robust. Farmed salmon prices down and wild (stocks dropping steadily) mysteriously range-bound. If you are interested, there are a few ways to play:

Fish farms use various amino acids so you could look into writing covered calls on farm supplement/chemical companies if you can also go long currencies of huge fish exporters like Iceland, Norway, even Scotland and Russia.

Elliott patterns don't really confirm or deny trend but there is probably some money to be made nonetheless.

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