Market Still Spiky, Economy Looking Weaker

Mother Market is good at fooling the best of them. Today it drove day traders and technical analysts nuts! Dropped at open, and broke below Dow9630, suggesting the rout was on .. but did not drop below equivalent level in S&P or Naz - a divergence. Then turned and meandered right back to where it started; plateaued, fell hard and came part way back (see Y! Finance chart of Dow). Easy to attribute to quarter-end dressing up. Today is bonus-setting day for many fund managers! 

Whither tomorrow? Dollar Index faded, and may retest 74.50. Gold spiked up! Divergences in major markets suggest some of them have legs. The next two days should help clarify which way the divergences will go. This is a time to wait and see until Mother Market picks a direction. 

Perhaps the market will look a little farther out. Economic news was decidedly mixed to negative. GDP was revised to slightly less negative in Q2 (-0.7% annualized rather than -1%), and hence everyone is anticipating an even better Q3 (+3% annualized instead of +2.5%). But Q3 is now history! Mother Market looks to Q4 and beyond. The Chicago Fed dumped a poor PMI report out that indicates slackening not strengthening. Could it be the gimmicks in Q3 like C4C and $8K for houses pulled demand in from Q4 rather than generated any real incremental demand? If so Q4 will be poorer than expected, and Q1 could run back into negative territory. 

Comments

[Hank Wernicki]

Excuse me, I said Gap Down for Today << from yesterday .................. then we had a bounce !

what's next ????????????????????

Hank

Not foolish here

No one can forecast the markets ........... only identify the ( fractal ) turns

[DG]

We should be on the cusp of a nice drop to retest the September lows, at least.

[Doroteo Arango]

Glenn Neely-Myther Challenge!
You could win $3000!

Ok... guys...lets see id the Glenn Neely that DG defends is real!!

I will give $3000 to the first person who can provide evidence that Glenn Neely is millionare because of his trading using Neo Wave.

This is a one-time offer, which will only go one person for proving the evidence. The first person that delivers the evidence will get the money.

If someone earns the $3000, I will let everyone know. And I will tell everybody in this blog that I am a liar!!

I am willing, if necessary, to deposit the 3,000 dollars with Duncan (Yelnick) and he will be the jugge.

Write me at [email protected]. Include your evidence and I will give you the money. This offer is open until Oct 9th, 2010.

If no one gives evidence about the "success" of Glenn Neely trading his Neo Wave, tben it will prove that I said the truth about Mr. Neely

"Glenn Neely makes his living from his website, not from his Neo Wave trading. He is NOT RICH because of his stupid neo wave theory"

DG, contact your friend Neely and tell him about this prize.... he might help you.... Until you prove me wrong... please be quiet!!

Any questions?

Doroteo Arango

[Doroteo Arango]

DG,

Neely reads this blog sometimes. Send him an email, and he will read my challenge....and guess what... we won't be able to win my challenge.

anyway since you do not like anything....here is another one.
Ok...lets do this.... Send me 100 dollars and I will prove you that Neely is not rich because of his trading... Since you already made more than 3000 using neo garbage, then 100 usd should be nothig for you..... but guess what?
Since you are loser.... you won't accept anythig.....

By now, everybody in this blog, knows that you are a gambler, and an internet addict...get some professional help! Get a life!!

Keeep defending your boyfriend Neely, he might give you a free subscription as a reward for your services here!!...but as far as I know..Gleen is not gay, so you might not like that either... I feel sorry for you.... .

Doroteo Arango

[Doroteo Arango]

DG,

I forgot to tell you that if you need more information about me..
just ask your mother.. or your sister..
they know me very...very well..

Doroteo Arango.

[Taz]

Doroteo,

May I ask what grade in high school you are currently in?

I presume you must be one of the cool kids because you feel the need to replace your lack of analytical ability by putting down others.

I for one appreciate DG and everyone else who actively contributes to this forum in a educational and hopefully profitable manner.

Cheers

Taz

[kallidromos]

Yelnick

Exchanges like the above, and specially the unprovoked attack of Mr. Doroteo Arango on DG, hurt your blog's quality.
We don't visit this site to prove anything or to witness insulting personal attacks. We visit this site to learn from each other. Please filter comments for propriety....

Hank Wernicki in his laconic right to the heart of the matter style posted a comment that is both accurate and wise.

Good day to all

Kallidromos

[min]

Arango's true name is MORONgo.

Some time back his wife left him after losing all his money mis-reading the markets.

He then was admitted to Kings County Psychiatric Ward where he felt sorry for himself and continually moaned and blamed Neely for all his problems.

He recently escaped from said institution. Morongo is considered low in resposibility and courage and a risk mainly to himself.

Anyone knowing his wherabouts are asked to notify authorities immediately.

[min]

Hey Morongo:

No hard feelings, I'll even offer you a job. You want to come and cut my lawn?

[KRG]

Doroteo:

Suppose Neely is not rich and neither am I,
Suppose you are very rich yourself;

Supose your riches are from trading; and
further suppose your trading riches have come out of following a methodology or a theory;

Would you then care to tell us a little about your theory or prognosis of the markets? May be you would help us all poor brotheren

And come on.. it is not befitting a man of your stature to seek 100 dollars to prove a fact that you dearly hold to your heart... Show us the proof and make us wiser in not following snake oil salesmen..

[guido]

Doroteo,

$3000? What a big fanzanoon! A real cafone too.

I can do that in one day on one small trade. What a bag of shells you are.

Look I'll pay you to do my lawn also.

I promise I won't notify your handlers.

[Doroteo Arango]

upssss. the truth hurts here!!

The fact that so many people are attacking Doroteo is a clear sign that the market has more to go to the downside.

This Neeely clown, will be the devil by the time this market bottoms.
I offered 3000 dollars here, and everyone here is so smart, that they do not want the money.... they still believe in fairy tales.... keep dreaming about Neely... that proves that crowds are usually wrong, only a few are correct.

By the time this market bottoms, I will have DG and a huge crowds sending me emails, to claim the money, so they can keep gambling on the market.

Lets see who cleans the lawn here in a few moths. The US will be on a depression, with lines of people looking to clean the lawn of people like me.

Keep posting nasty things about me, this is funny to me. I enjoy reading them.

My offer is still there... I dare anyone to post the evidence here, and I will send the 3000 dollars I made cleaning your lawns... Ja ja ja ja!!

Doroteo Arango

[Doroteo Arango]

Dg,

Do you ever sleep?
I guess your night shift as guard in a factory, keeps you up 20 out 24 hours..
I guess you really need the money to keep gambling and drinking while you trade... be smart and get 3000 dollars from me!!

Doroteo Arango

[guido]

Yo Vinnie this Pancho Villa wannabe mook needs a scaffoombaggia, take care of him prego...

Morongo, this ain't DGs night shift it's day time where I am, you homeless, unemployed jibone!

You lost all your money following Neely's advise and now you cry like a little fanook blaming Neely and anyone who digs his shit.

Why don't you lose the cavaccia and learn to be a man like your alter-ego Pancho.

And no jamook I don't follow or care about Neely capisce?

All you are proving is you are a fuckwitz. Move on or you are going to earn a vavine or two.

If you don't understand what I am telling you let me be a little clearer. Go home and cry to your mama no one here is interested in a cafone like you.

Capisce jadrool?

[Gumby]

Neely made 1.6 million on an Australian Dollar trade based on a Neowave Terminal pattern he discovered.

It's public knowledge.

[Gumby]

"NEoWave™ evolved over years, but my first big trade - which you may have heard about in an informercial on TV - was a short position in the Australian Dollar. It was right before a major, six-month Terminal ended near the highs of 1986. The aussie dollar went through its most powerful decline in history and I was in right from the start and got out, 1.6 million later, a week from the low. Probably the most exciting trade of my life. - Glenn Neely"

[Gumby]

>>>Glenn Neely-Myther Challenge!
>>>You could win $3000!

>>>I will give $3000 to the first person who can >>>provide evidence that Glenn Neely is >>>millionare because of his trading using Neo >>>Wave.

Where's our $3000? You gonna pay up?

[DG]

Gumby,

I posted that, too. I think whoever this person is, he believes Neely was lying. Once a person forms an opinion like that, they are pretty much impervious to facts. That has been my experience, anyway.

[DG]

We should be on the cusp of a nice drop to retest the September lows, at least.

Posted by: DG | Wednesday, September 30, 2009 at 07:50 PM

If this is going to happen, it should start to happen here.

[bob m]

I think we need to start a blog to discuss the markets OH that's right. That is what THIS one is for.

[DG]

bob m,

I'm with you. As I said yesterday, I thought the setup looked good for a re-test of the September lows. That appears to be happening. For now, a downside target near 102 SPY is the conservative view of what could be happening. If we go back above yesterday afternoon's high, what I think is going on isn't.

[Jeff White]

What is special about 55 Fibonacci Trading Days?

Seems to have nailed some type of spike top Tuesday morning.

[The Fibber]

Hey! We are an exact Fibonacci 75,025 microseconds from the last small bottom!!!!

[October 25, 2009]

The time monks at halfpasthuman.com have just released their latest forecast ALTA reports. George Ure (www.urbansurvival.com) and Clif High, the time monks, go on the Coast To Coast with George Noory radio (21 July 2009) show to talk about some of their forecast/predictions. Here are some :

- A big crisis is kicked off on October 25, 2009. It could be that Israel bombs Iran, or that Swine Flu goes into a level of extreme lethality. 10 days later, in relation to this crisis, the Obama administration will be thrown into chaos.

- When Israel bombs Iran (also around end Oct early Nov), they will use a nuclear-tipped bunker buster that will hit something unforeseen underground. As a result, a radioactive cloud will form that will pollute and sicken Southeast Asia. This will cause much of the world to turn against Israel.

[Fibonnaci Magic!]

Wow! Brave predictions! Insightful! Brilliant! Congratulations!

Israel/Iran conflict, huh? Who'd have seen that one? I haven't even heard of those countries.

Maybe if this prediction hits (it won't but they'll twist words and events to say it did) it will make up for thousands of predictions that didn't hit.

Sometimes making lots and lots of predictions can actually improve your odds of hitting.

[DG]

Sometimes making lots and lots of predictions can actually improve your odds of hitting.

That's actually not true based on probability theory.

Also, since predictions are inherently probabilistic and the only thing that can help you "stay in the game" is proper risk management, that should be every trader's top priority.

As you'll see from this, one of the problems is that the typical trader doesn't "get it" about risk management until late in the game.

http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2009/09/draft-trader-stage-development-model.html

[October 25, 2009]

The Web Bot Project, developed in the late 1990's, was created to assist in making stock market predictions. The technology uses a system of spiders to crawl the Internet and search for keywords, much like a search engine does. When a keyword is located, the bot program takes a snapshot of the text preceding and following the keyword. This snapshot of text is then filtered to define meaning.

In 2001, the bot operators began to notice that stock market predictions were not the only matters being accurately predicted by the program and they began to take notice of the coincidence with occurrences and explored it further. One of the first accurate predictions from the bot program took place in June of 2001. At that time, the program predicted that a life altering event would take place within the next 60-90 days. An occurrence of such proportion that it's effects would be felt worldwide. The program based it's prediction on its filtered web chatter content. Regrettably, the program's prediction proved accurate.

They also predicted a calamity would occur on October 7, 2008 which was also accurate.

Watch October 25, 2009. An exact date that some type of crisis/war/pandemic should begin.

[October 25, 2009]

Whatever happens in the 10/25/2009 timeframe is supposed to be HUGE, life changing.

Timewave Zero (Terrance McKenna research) also has the same date as being very important.

[philippine fred]

yawn....26th ive got a date lined up so hope the cloud clears up.

china is on holiday next week and right when wave 3 down should begin so i think we have a week to wait, if the US keeps meandering lower that should be enough for a mass exit in the china market when it reopens.

[October 25, 2009]

Webbots are predicting October 25th.

Timewave Zero prediction is for October 26th.

Better make your date for the 27th.

[Scary]

Taliban is calling for October 2009 attack?

10/11/09 backwards is 09/11/01

Here is the video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiBd3IjVqAM

[Hank Wernicki]

Update:

http://www.elliottfractals.com/webinar_page.htm

[Jose]

Webbots are predicting October 25th.

Timewave Zero prediction is for October 26th.

Better make your date for the 27th.

I'd suggest the 24th.

[Idiots To The Left - Idiots To The Right]

Don't bother these Elliott Wave idiots with anything other than their damn squiggles.

It is interesting how knowledgeable and opinionated they are about everything. Yup! Day iz da genious about everthung.

Open your goddamn minds and form opinions through knowledge and empirical data.

Idiots!

[min]

Idiot has been smelling his own farts too long.

Elliott is but one perspective for most and those that used it as their only marketmreference tool (like you) are insolvent, complainy, whiney, PMSy, blamey, and continually putting things down they never understood well to begin with.

You get the IDIOT OF THE YEAR AWARD.

CONGRATULATIONS.

[Wavist]

Nuclear-tipped bunker buster...lmaao sounds like someone really doesn't his AK from his EMP