Slow Roll, so 1938 Yet Again

Markets appear to be meandering to a top.  Given that we should have seen more volume last week and this, the market is showing signs of exhaustion with this rally rather than conviction in a new direction. The biggest 'news' is the brewing trade war between the US and China, with China firing back against our tire tariff.  Obama is taking some flak from the left, for example Brad De Long, a Krugmanesque cheerleader for ever more stimulus and one of the leading neo-Keynesians on the Left Coast (he is at Berkeley): 

"Why oh why can't we have better Democratic presidents? 

Barack Obama does something stupid."

So is the market climbing a wall of worry or just waiting for news?  Cannot say from the myriad of opinion as to fundamentals.  Wave count is a bit more illuminating.  The STU count is that we are in the final throes of this rally: the final fifth wave of the final C wave of the second zigzag (and presumably the final zigzag).  The fall Friday and the gap down this morning were a minor wave ii and we now have started wave iii, which means tomorrow may be a robust uptrend. They would like to see the Dow get above 9654, the 'fourth of a third' level (which the S&P has already beaten). The S&P is approaching a resistance level (trendline) of SP1057, which is increasing by 2 pts a day. A break above that suggests we continue up to the 50% retrace at 1121. The Naz is already above the 50% retrace, and is approaching the 2106 level, which makes the second zigzag at 61.8% of the first, a common relationship.

Slope of Hope reports that the Russell 2K is also at 50%. As a bear who misses last year, he is reacting to a general belief that we are about to fill that drop a year ago with a similar air pocket up in the S&P to catch up to the Russell 2K and the Naz. He explains why a drop can fill a gap but seldom a rise (fear outstrips greed).  

Neely is watching his fractal. The S&P is about to hit the outside time window, which could spur a drop. Ideally it should hit SP1075 (cash) about at the end of the window. Neely trades futures, and he is watching the Dec S&P, which is lower than the cash close. His service has specific future levels with stops for those who wish to trade.  

The US Peso bounced today, and oil fell back below $70. Gold is back near $1000. The SSEE (Shanghai) got back to its 50 day moving average and is now above the 3000 level, while the whole rest of Asia was showing red.  

Evil Speculator had yet another 1938 comparison where he compares the initial drop off 1937 and bounce with the drop in 2008 and bounce. He notes that this is the C wave of a flat off 2000 (his count) whereas that was an A of a zigzag. (In general, the first leg of a zigzag is the most intense, whereas the final leg of a flat correction is the most intense.) The fractal comparison is intriguing.  See charts, courtesy Evil Speculator.  

Comments

[Howard]

Yelnick,
What is the STU's outlook on Silver and Gold these days?
Thanks.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

"Evil Speculator" Hmmm?

I think I'll change my handle to the "Evil Penetrator"

(nic-nic)

[yelnick]

Howard, they have gold in a fifth wave spike up to end (b) wave with a drop to follow. Target is $1028. (Neely sees it might get to $1100.) Silver is similarly in a final run up towards $18.

[Miguel]

yelnik:
and what is their tiling referring gold and silver?

[Miguel]

yelnik and what is their timing for gold and silver?

[Neely the Guru]

Poor ewavers and their NEOWAVE derivative. They got it wrong so badly for so long. Poor Neely, he expected a little rebound from the March lows. Neely is definitely the biggest Joke of eWavers.

[vipul garg]

one needs to differentiate between a wrong forecast, wrong forecaster and wrong analytical tool.
a wrong forecast and/or a wrong forecaster doesnot not imply wrong tool.

[Brian]

The DOW is around 9700 today--well above EW's first "4 of 3" and almost to their second one.
I wonder if today's peak is considered the fifth wave.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

Brian, it's time to realize that the E-Wavers are lost, they no longer have a handle on the market.

It happens! Much money has been lost and opportunities missed by trying to master this 'theory'.

That doesn't mean that any method is better or worse, just that depending any one tool can be hazardous to your wealth.

[min]

"They got it wrong so badly for so long. Poor Neely, he expected a little rebound from the March lows."

Oh greatly unexalted pedantic one...

And what do you see?

[molecool]

Honored you'd post my measly charts - wow :-)

[molecool]

"Brian, it's time to realize that the E-Wavers are lost, they no longer have a handle on the market."

I'm so happy to hear you say that - that's the type of sentiment and ridicule I have been hoping for :-)

[Ryan]

I was hoping for that "reverse sentiment" you're looking for, Molecool. In 1997 when I started following the usual gang of Ewave suspects.

And I got it.

And unfortunately I still had my *ss handed to me.

Don't think you can predict the markets. If you're lucky enough to be stupid enough try this gambling game and win something then GET THE F*CK OUT BEFORE YOU LOSE A LOT MORE THAN $30/month!

[molecool]

Thanks for your thoughts Ryan - I know what you are saying and maybe you're right. Fact is that really none of us know when/if this market tips over. If it does I'll be positioned - otherwise I lose my trading coin - I can live with both scenarios.

[pman]

"E-Wavers are lost" ????? If you actually knew what you were talking about, you would know that many of the big guys called for these levels back in March. They also have been on record saying counter trend rallies are very unpredictable and nobody knows the path they will take for sure. I am not sure what Neely has said all along, but I don't see how you could call Prechter wrong over the last year.

I think what most have trouble with is that this rally does not line up with fundamentals right now, it defies logic. I think most have underestimated what the Fed and Government money would do to the markets.

I am with Mole, I love to see this type of sentiment. We are going to new highs, shallow pullbacks will be the norm from here on out. This jobless recovery will be breathtaking, profits through the roof. Consumer spending and leverage back to levels of old. Nothing can stop this pig.

[min]

I'll just continue ratcheting up my stops. When I finally get stopped out of my longs, I will patiently look for the next failed high to go short.

No need to lose your trading coin folks. E-waves can help you game better entries and exits if you don't try to trade very short time frames.

This is a Grand Super Cycle correction it's not that difficult if you can abstain from doing too much. Better to double your money over 6 to 8 months than try to trade every turn obsessively.

You guys are right about one thing, don't follow the gurus' lead. A turn is coming but they will get it wrong many times before they get it right.

Patience. Wait for a failed high before going short, this is a GSC correction, no need to get greedy. As the old saying goes:

"Bulls can make money, Bears can make money but Pigs just get slaughtered"

[DG]

E-waves can help you game better entries and exits if you don't try to trade very short time frames.

The other thing about e-wave is it will tell you EXACTLY when you are wrong and if you are in the market, will keep you in until it is unsafe. You know the old adage "Cut your losses and let your winners run"? E-wave lets you do EXACTLY that. I'm still not sure I understand what more people want, other than some illusory perfection. Trading is risk-taking. Period. We don't live in a world where you can have only winning trades that capture every tick of every move, but I swear that's what some people expect around here.

[min]

Yeah that too... right on DG

[DG]

min,

I'd love to see the actual trading process of some of these people dissing e-wave. They probably see what they think is a wave 5 up to end a move, go short on a reversal, then don't get out when the top of what they thought was wave 5 gets hit, thinking "Oh, my count is probably right, but that was just the iii of 5. It will reverse soon". Then, the market continues up and they finally take a loss and say, "Man, that Elliott Wave stuff is BS!". No, YOU just didn't implement it correctly.