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« China Bubble Update: Free Week! | Main | Last Chance Trading Update »

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

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lupani

Wavist, i'm much obliged by your post below.It clears things up.

tomas

oh my!!!
i am going to nominate you for ecomomy nobel price!
how can the world live without your point of view?
because you brake all of the econometric rules i know, so if you have an econometry degree, which is sure you have, you must be genius!!!

Stupid! do you know what a higher dollar means?
do you know that all of hedge fund that went bear last year are turning their poositions for a burst of inflation? do you know what is monetary police? and please read again what bahegot said. What ben is using is the austrian liquidity cycle trying to take stocks and inflation to an all times high

ps. what am i doing here reading this ignorant?

rc

Excellent article Yelnick. So the question remains: inflation or deflation. I follow Prechter and hope he's not wrong about a forthcoming bust for gold and commodities, and turn for the dollar. (Even if he is, he still provides insightful and valuable analysis, as you do also.)

min

You do well to hope and to keep one eye open in regards to Prechter. I guess you are a cautious follower which is good.

Prechter "Insightful" — I suppose?
Prechter relevant to better trading —definitely not save for those with 100 year time frames

Commodity correction coming up —yes
"Bust" —no, sorry.

Neely the Guru

Neely is like an empty Can in an ocean of waves. Flip flopping from extreme to extreme in less than couple months. From Financial media to be shut down, and Gold to go bear for 5 years, and then only to discover the low has already been hit in March 09 for the next 50 years.

Talk Logic Rules and Scientific way. He spends more time bashing Orthodox EWavers only to prove he is a bigger fool. Now when his crew hear that, they start talking about how good their trading skills are.

William

Yelnik: Excellent article. Very well written. As a learning investor, the clarity and preciseness is appreciated.

Rich

Prechter cannot be wrong because he uses strictly applied Elliott rules, which determine social progress and market moves. If he appears wrong it is because you do not realize that Elliott is a probabilistic science. So whoever wrote "If Prechter is wrong about gold..." is either an ignoramus or a jokester.

Prechter has elaborated the immutable truths of Ralph Elliott but he cannot change them nor deny their immortal veracity. It behooves those of you safely nestled in your comfortable perches to study Prechter and avail yourself of his knowledge. I commend Yelnick for providing links to the Free Weeks but I would warn you that a free week here or there will not be enough to keep you and your family from financial and socionomic ruin if you do not pony up and subscribe regularly.

The 3 of III of iii of PRIMARY THREE of GrAND SUPERCYCLE THREE will make the Dark Ages look like a stroll down a sunny lane!

Mamma Boom Boom

You should seriously consider this analogy: http://www.bushongbusiness.com/webbbs/index.cgi?noframes;read=18251

It's certainly a strong contender.

DG

Neely the Guru,

Neely spends very little time bashing other wavers. He points out what he thinks are gaps in their methods. Do you know of any other way to debate?

Anyway, I'm not defending his announcement yesterday because I think it was unnecessary at this point in time. I already sent him my thoughts on the potential new count and he responded. That's what normal adults do when they have disagreements.

Unless you believe that the markets are completely deterministic, there is no way to avoid uncertainty at times, especially in the middle of a large Corrective structure.

You may not want to hear it, but Neely has done a pretty good job of trading this market over the past year, public announcements or no public announcements. If you were a buy and hold investor over the past 52 weeks, you are underwater year-over-year. If you followed Neely's trading advice, you are up. Period. If you can't acknowledge that because of some personal animosity toward him, that's your own issue.

LDA

A few weeks back I asked a question here with regard to the S&P 500 cash chart and I'll ask it again...Does anyone else think that it looks like a head & shoulders bottom on the daily S&P and doesn't that tie in with Elliot Wave bottoming price action?

P.W.B.

Hey Rich -

A 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 is BY DEFINITION an impulsive move. You're basically talking about (almost) the biggest and fastest growth allowed by Elliott rules.

Maybe you meant 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 of C...

Or maybe you don't know what you're talking about...

yelnick

tomas, the whole point of the barbell is to prepare for either deflation or inflation, meaning the market is uncertain as to which. Sure, some hedge funds are betting on inflation, but the trend is now towards both extremes, meaning the market is at the edge of chaos and is seeking order, but does not know which way. This is typical behavior when we near a trend change.

I think Bernanke would be amused to be called an Austrian. The charts showing a huge increase in money supply are misleading in that the banks aren't increasing lending plus velocity is dropping, meaning there is little inflationary pressure - in fact we have been deflating for over a year as debt gets written off. There comes a point where the Fed cannot reflate, and we may have hit that point. We also hit it in the '30s.

The Fed has tried direct intervention, Quantitative Easing (QE) to direct buy Treasuries and Agency Paper and put cash into the seller's bank accounts. This is one way to print money, but - I have written here previously how QE is really Bernanke's way to repair the balance sheet of the Fed, since last year he swapped quality reserves for bank junk in order to improve bank solvency (a very good thing to have done), and is now swapping back slowly.

If you feel up to a substantive response, feel free to come back and comment. Before you do, you might review Taylor's op-ed in the WSJ today about how the Stimulus has failed. The economy is not behaving as either Keynesians or Monetarists expected. Maybe Bernanke will become a latter-day Austrian, but he would never admit it.

Hank Wernicki


forget the head and shoulders ... it's a wife's tale !

Iris

As a wife, and one highly versed in technical analysis, including Elliott Wave (which has the predictive value of a fair coin), I take exception to Hank Wernicki's comment. "Head and shoulders" is about the only formation that correlates positively with market drops. It's an extremely valuable tool. But not quite as valuable as a loving, loyal, brainy, beautiful wife!

By the way, Don Prechter's service is a real bargain at only thirty bucks a month or so. If you want to survive the imminent 3 of THREE of 'three' of "THREE" of TTHHRREE!!! of III of iii of (iii) catastrophic tidal wave/black plague/nuclear armageddon, you will need it.

You have been warned!

elliott is d bomb ya

yeah i love me some elliott wave precther shi*t

and that sociolomics is de BOMB!

gonna survive me the CREST of the crash Wave III, dudes!

Joe Wilson's incivility was predicted beautifully by the superb work done by Roger Prechter (Yale grad! Dude is SMART!) at his prestigious Sonionomic Society Elliott Institue for Advanced Doctoral Training in Rigors of Scientific Socionomics.


Make me some MONEY!

yelnick

Iris, I would take a brainy wife over any newsletter or TA pattern any day! Mine has saved me from all sorts of trouble.

A H&S pattern is a stock distribution formation, similar to the end of many ewave patterns (from end of 3 to start of C or 3 down, the 4-5-1-2 look like a H&S at times). It indicates rotation out of positions and can signal a change of trend. My understanding is it is at best 50% predictive, which means it should not be used by itself but in conjunction with other indicators.

yelnick

Ned, check out Yves comment at Zerohedge today, tying USD and 1987 together with current market: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/problem-competing-views…

I asked if he wanted to expand in a guestpost here. Or would you like to?

DG The King of Dimwits

DG, see if you can get this through your thick and biased head: Most people are NOT TRADERS! Most people WORK FOR A LIVING and have always used the Buy & Hold out of necessity, either through direct account management or a fund or a retirement account.

THEY ARE NOT TRADERS, DIMWIT!

What has DESTROYED any semblance of a market and turned it into a complete raging casino are the DAMN TRADERS! This includes every DAMN DAY-TRADER and Wall Street trading floor.

So the hell with your NeoWave guru and his RIGHT FOR ONE YEAR.

I don't trade or invest in stocks, but I do like watching the CROOKED MARKETS.

One man who has been very (not 100%) accurate with what appears to be a GOOD COUNT, since the markets appear to be following it, is Dr. McHugh. I have been following him for a couple of years and HIS INDICATORS ARE DAMN GOOD!

Mamma Boom Boom

Yelnick, let him. I'm not windy enough to write the piece, nor do I recollect enough details to be accurate. Too long ago.

But I do remember the rubber band of overbought being stretched and stretched and stretched!

Mamma Boom Boom

DG The King of Dimwits,

I brought up the same thing to him, although slightly more tactfully, many months ago. That's why I've always divided my Market Opinion into 3 time frames. If I ever go Pro, I'll sell it that way, too.

DG

DG, see if you can get this through your thick and biased head: Most people are NOT TRADERS! Most people WORK FOR A LIVING and have always used the Buy & Hold out of necessity, either through direct account management or a fund or a retirement account.

There's a Neely subscriber who posts here who's been managing an IRA account quite successfully over the past year using Neely's recommendations. So, it can be done, if a person take an active role.

Oh, and I'm a "dimwit"? You're on a site where, as a guess, I'd say 90% of the posts refer to short to intermediate term trading, and you complain about me posting someone's short to intermediate term trading track record?


One man who has been very (not 100%) accurate with what appears to be a GOOD COUNT, since the markets appear to be following it, is Dr. McHugh. I have been following him for a couple of years and HIS INDICATORS ARE DAMN GOOD!

The McHugh listed at the bottom of this "guru" guide?


http://cxoadvisory.com/gurus/

Yeah, it's a "dormant" review, but 36% accuracy? Come on, man, that's not "DAMN GOOD" that's "DAMN CRAPPY". You got one thing right, he's not "100% accurate".

Thanks for the laughs.

Eventhorizon

Ned,

"That's why I've always divided my Market Opinion into 3 time frames. If I ever go Pro, I'll sell it that way, too."

So you would do it the way Neely does?

What will you be looking for to identify that the elasic band has snapped?

Mamma Boom Boom

>>So you would do it the way Neely does?<<

I don't know, I've never seen one of his letters.

-----------------------

>>What will you be looking for to identify that the elasic band has snapped?<<

That's not easy, it's why it catches everyone off guard. But when my indicators go into negative territory (not just neutral) I will act.

DG The King of Dimwits

DG: "The McHugh listed at the bottom of this "guru" guide?"

Source: SafeHaven?????

BWhahahahahahah!

They judge him from old missives that he USED to publish about four times a year, and then with very little data and scope.

Gee! Maybe they should try actually READING his Daily/Weekend Reports in all their detail. Maybe track him using REAL REPORTS and over an EXTENDED period of time.

No! Thank YOU for the good laugh!

BWhahahahahahahahah!

DG

They judge him from old missives that he USED to publish about four times a year, and then with very little data and scope.

Gee! Maybe they should try actually READING his Daily/Weekend Reports in all their detail. Maybe track him using REAL REPORTS and over an EXTENDED period of time.

No! Thank YOU for the good laugh!

BWhahahahahahahahah!

First off, the site isn't affiliated with "Safe Haven", and even if it was, that's called an "ad hominem" attack and is the first logical fallacy one learns in a logic class. Hint for you, a "fallacy" is something that isn't a valid argument.

Secondly, they were "grading" the gurus on their directional market calls, not the down and dirty details of those calls. So, unless McHugh was saying the market was going in one direction in his publicly available information and saying the opposite in the Daily/Weekend reports (which would be odd, no, since presumably the publicly available information was designed to solicit subscribers, so why would he not want to put his best prognostications in there, to persuade people to pony up for the subscriber detail?), their "grade" is reflective of exactly what he was saying the market would do.

64% of the time, the market, apparently, did the opposite.

Still laughing?

David

You know the irony of all this?

Q. What sector would get killed in BOTH the inflation and deflation scenarios outlined?
A. Banks.

Q. What was the perceived purpose of all the FED actions from TAF, to TARP ect?
A. Help the banks.

Q. What does it all mean?
A. If you ever hear someone say, "We're from the government and we're hear to help", RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!

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