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« Last Chance Stress Test | Main | Last Chance Crash Calls »

Friday, October 09, 2009

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Mamma Boom Boom

>>Various commentators including here have noted how the Fed needs an exit strategy from their swaps of toxic debt:<<

I think there's a good chance that when it all hits the fan, our government will dump the fed. Since our currency is fed debt(private debt), not government debt, the debt jubilee theory will have been accomplished. Since we're already in world war, it won't matter much who gets fighten mad.

MHD

In Tony's count he still sees us in wave 1 of the final move. If there are going to be 5 waves, then 1090 seems too close to fit 5 waves so a move to the 50% retrace seems more likely, if not above that.

Mamma Boom Boom

>>October 9, 1930:

Market wrap: Stocks opened firm but then “developed sagging tendencies,” reaching new lows in many sections; volume was low most of the day. Signs of further bear pressure on leading stocks, particularly US Steel; rally attempts were weak and possibly due to short covering. Stocks drifted lower; however, “impressive resistance” developed at the lows with trading drying up and the tape halting frequently between transactions. Coppers and utilities weak. Poor sentiment was attributed to bad business news including declines in car loadings and steel production; this “offered little incentive to trading activities on the constructive side.” On the other hand some bear activity may have been deterred by the recent campaign against bear raids. Bond market generally weak; South American govts. sharply lower, heavy liquidation extended to other foreign govts.; US govt. steady; corp. and convertibles down.<<

Mamma Boom Boom

Once again, as I did about a month ago, I have the eerie feeling that we could see a repeat of '87. Seems like plenty of elements are in place. Hope I spot it fast enough to get 'very short'.

pointing down

piece of work

entropy70

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22477590

Mamma Boom Boom

One year ago, I had a similar feeling: http://www.bushongbusiness.com/webbbs/index.cgi?noframes;read=17694 and we all know what happened after that. We're still not back to that level. Granted, many of the reasons were different than today, but sometimes things just don't add up.

Sean

Ned,

But your follow up message said

"While I can't predict what the market will do over the short term, my stuff shows believe the long term investor is in good shape here. There are screaming buys all over the place" -- Oct 4, 2008 @ 4pm. SPX opened 10/11/2009 at almost 1100, closed around 1055.

Mamma Boom Boom

Sean, that wasn't me, it was skinny. Your not reading it correctly.

Mamma Boom Boom

One week later, I wrote this: http://www.bushongbusiness.com/webbbs/index.cgi?noframes;read=17748

There you go...

One week later, I wrote this
One week later, I wrote this
One week later, I wrote this
One week later, I wrote this

Mamma Boom Boom

There you go..., you should pay attention. Frac Man is in there, that time frame, with a good call.

Mamma Boom Boom

'Retail Stocks' have been providing most of the strength the past couple of days. Can anyone show this on a chart as 'distribution'?

Name

Sun trine Jupiter hits this weekend.

Chris Carolan sees a top here.


You change story

Frac Man is a short term trader.

Everybody is wrong (sometimes). But you change story.

mannfm11

The paying back creditors would make sense if we were dealing with a foreign currency. Currencies aren't always about falling values, but about interest rates, as these are all bank papers. i tend to believe that the nations that are associated with the currencies are less important than the lending and debt associated with them. The problem with either side of the dollar is that the debt associated with it is massive. Remember there is a LIBOR market and dollars are loaned around the world due to the liquidity associated with it. Much of the mess in the world is being eased by the low rates at the Fed and a move away from the current policy would likely put much suffering on the rest of the world.

I do believe there is something to the China link to a lower dollar. Truth is that China is linked to the dollar and needs a smoke screen to devalue behind. So, if they could push the dollar lower, they could gain some advantage with Europe. Don't underestimate the Chinese need for dollar flows and their need to maintain their link with the currency, mainly due to the fact they can't get out of it if they wished. I doubt most people understand the dollar has collateralized central bank issuances of currencies around the world and its demise is over stated. We are in a deflation worldwide and to some extent the assets around the world are linked to the dollar. It is not necessary for central banks to earn money in the way others do and they absolutely need the flexibility given them through the dollar for continued operation. If it went away, the financial system of the world would collapse due to a lack of liquidity.

min

>>In Tony's count he still sees us in wave 1 of the final move. If there are going to be 5 waves, then 1090 seems too close to fit 5 waves so a move to the 50% retrace seems more likely, if not above that.

I don't follow Tony but if the last move unfolds as an ending diagonal it can pretty much fit in as tight a space as needed, keep that in mind...

min

>>I doubt most people understand the dollar has collateralized central bank issuances of currencies around the world and its demise is over stated... If it went away, the financial system of the world would collapse due to a lack of liquidity...

More or less agree, also, a lot of bad news is already known and priced into the US buck.

China, on the other hand seems to have the midas touch on just about everything. I smell a rat and I don't mean the rats on a stick for sale on the streets of Beijing...

Watch out below.

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