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« Last Chance to Get Out Comes Again | Main | Calm Before the Coming News Storm »

Saturday, October 31, 2009

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Wayne Zhang

Here are the two software that I know:

http://www.elliottician.com/TechnologyOverview.aspx and
http://www.mtpredictor.com/index.php

Wayne Zhang

Perigee

Yelnick

I also think there were some library add-ons for Metastock - Elwave rings a bell but I don't have metastock anymore. I think MTPredictor has one of the better ones

Dimitri

I think Elliottician is indeed the best/biggest project.

For the rest:

http://www.prognosis.nl/ (Elwave 9.1 is the last version I think)
http://www.tradingsynergy.com/ (IntrepidTrader 4)

AD

I think that at e-wavecharts.com they claim they do have some system that presents wave count alternatives.

rest my case

I had been long NDX since March and recently exited at what looks to be the top. In 2008 I also 10x'd my trading portfolio mainly with these stupid E-Waves that don't seem to work very well for you.
Posted by: min | Sunday, November 01, 2009 at 02:23 AM

min TALKS DAY AND NIGHT 24-7-365. WITH ALL TALKS, THERE IS NOTHING, NOTHING REMOTELY HINT HE WAS LONG NDX (OR ANYTHING) SINCE MARCH.

min CANNOT AND HAVE NOT SHOWN ANYTHING TO PROVE HE WAS LONG NDX ANYTHING SINCE MARCH.

nine months

min

calling Gartman as fartman. you know nothing.

Gartman made his career calling the bottom in March. And you claim such nine months later?
You are a liar and/or fool.

PL

Yelnick

In the early 90s I had a terrific program for Fibonacci work. I know this is not Elliott Wave, but it is directly related obviously. You may know about this already, but the program was called Nature's Pulse. The work was done by a fellow named Ed Kasanjian who subsequently went on to develop a program called Pattern Smasher which may be of more interest to you.

I was unable to get versions of Nature's Pulse to work properly with WinXP, and so gave it up. Every now and again I search the web in case other fans of the program managed to get it working with modern operating systems.

Anyway, the program used “accordions” between any dates to project fib numbers (or any number sequence). Very similar to fib accordions found on many of today’s programs. It also allowed the input of dates and the program would generate vertical lines on certain dates to indicate “hits” based on the dates you input.

You can see a screen shot here http://www.pulsetech.org/examples.htm

There is a little bio on Ed Kasanjian here http://www.meta-formula.com/ed-kasanjian-videos.html. There is apparently a free video, but I didn’t sign up to watch it.

Ok, now here’s an email that gave me pause. Available on the web, between Kasanjian and a program user. In it Kasanjian calls into question the validity of using Fibonacci at all. You must remember this guy was no dummy, and spent years and hundreds of thousands try to perfect a computerized approach. http://www.purebytes.com/archives/realtraders/2000/msg06171.html

I’m sure a good internet search might turn up more about Kasanjians work.

Hope this is of some help or interest.

PL

Whoops. THe Kasanjin bio link has a period at the end which it shouldn't. Use this http://www.meta-formula.com/ed-kasanjian-videos.html

Keith Reynolds

You don't need a computer to generate Fibonacci numbers, which are the key to Elliott Waves and mankind's social transitions. The way I do it is to start with zero and 1 and add the last two numbers of the new sum. So...

0 + 1 = 1

1 + 1 = 2

2 + 1 = 3

3 + 2 = 5

etc, etc...

These show up in shells and flowers and spirals and so they are a part of everything in nature, including stock market patterns. Robert Prechter was probably the first to notice this and apply it to the markets through his "Elliott Wave" book, which predicted pretty much everything that has happened in the markets since the 1970s (including this last and very serious crash).

If you want to learn more, you do not need a sophisticated software program, you simply need patience and enthusiasm. I have been following the markets since 2004. Now I am a student and do not have time to keep up with them full time so I farm out the job to an expert: Prechter! He is still in business and still sharing his knowledge with the world, only (as he predicted) some are too ignorant or full of hubris to listen to him.

The subscription is not cheap but, if you invest or if you simply like to know where the markets are headed, it is an incredible bargain.

Thanks for the interest and for the site and happy trading.

Virginia Jim

1929-1987 Spiral Calendar Analog update. The first three paragraphs introduce the subject and are only a rehash of prior updates. Skip to the fourth paragraph if you’ve been following this speculation.

The SC analog projects 4 dates in 2009 based upon the comparable landmark dates in 1987 and Chris Carolan’s F25 interval (a simple algorithm of the Fibonacci series’ 25th number). See my first post and subsequent posts of this speculation dated September 25, 2009. The four dates and computations based upon DJIA are computed in the following (ignore the “First bottom” which is not a landmark date and which has NOT previously proven to provide SC significance):

http://www.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Jim/folders/Jing/media/dc727e07-5372-4181-a778-a229cc4ca671

Picking four dates that might have been picked at random months or years in advance and represented to become significant turning points in the 2009 market is, in my opinion, an occurrence the likelihood of which is statistically so improbable that it cannot be computed. If the Gaussian likelihood of the occurrence of the October 19, 1987 event was 1 in 5000 lifetimes (where one lifetime is that of the universe) as computed by Nassim Taleb, then I expect predicting four unique dates surrounding either the 1987 or a prospective 2009 resonance of 1987 is similarly and, likely, vastly more improbable. Without any hint of causality, the 1929-1987 SC analog is simply numerology.

It has become an intriguing speculation because there are, tentatively, three signs that it might work. FIRST, the interval between 1929 to 1987 divided by 1987 to 2009 is .381, a near perfect Fibonacci coincidence. This first caught my attention but that was all; it was ‘cute.’ SECOND, in back testing the four dates it was noted that the July 11, 2009 date (a Saturday) was a perfect projection of the bottom that actually occurred on July 10, 2009. I call that a “successful” projection realized because any projection cannot be more accurate than its measurement interval; one day. That date signaled the bear market rally had reached a midpoint bottom before a final grand run-up into the second projected date. This low was projected in contrast to the rampant speculation de jour that a head and shoulders top destined an exactly opposite move down to test March lows. THIRD, the October 16, 2009 date projecting a final highest high next preceding a significant decline has resulted in a new recovery high on October 14, 2009 and October 19, 2009. Given the 1 trading day allowance for measurement error, October 16, 2009 has, tentatively, proven to be a success. It is considered a tentative success because any new high after October 19, 2009 will indicate the date was not a “highest high” and will reduce confidence in the model.

This last week’s decline has increased the likelihood that the predicted October 16, 2009 high (which occurred one trading day later on October 19, 2000) was a successful prediction of the SC Analogy. Assuming that to be the case, the November 23, 2009 secondary high becomes the next important predicted date. That puts a gap in the model because the model predicts the “final high” and the “secondary high” but no “First bottom.” When does the first bottom occur and how far will it penetrate? Carolan did not offer that date, I presume, because unlike the four dates it was 4 trading days off between 1987 and 1929. In other words, the first bottom in 1929 plus F29 missed being a valid projection by 4 trading days.

How far, then, will this first wave down go? In 1929 it was 20% and in 1987 it was 10%:

http://www.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Jim/folders/Jing/media/7b53d6e5-b6ca-49e8-ab14-c95f07ded5a3

Pretty big variance in “How far” and SC surely does not give guidance on anything but the 4 dates. And when? Again, I simply don’t know. But the model says after October 16 and before November 23. Based on other SC estimation I’ve done, I’m thinking November 17 or so with a one-week climb to the November 23 secondary high. You might take a look at the following comparison of 2009 to 1929 and 1987 which is aligned on the highest closing high of each year:

http://www.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Jim/folders/Jing/media/332e8bb9-9f06-4b5b-be72-c82d9b818c2e

Something else to look at are those two vectors. Livermore and others liked to draw trend lines on the high and the first low and then the high and the first reactionary high. Well, you can see in 1987 and 1929, those lines were pretty indicative of what followed. I’ll leave it to your imagination.

One other implication of that chart. The 2009 ascension into the October 19, 2009 high is steeper than EITHER 1929 or 1987. If this market is destined to collapse, I expect it could be historic. And if this is destined to be the greatest bear in history as the Kondratieff Winter or the Grand Supercycle stature would suggest, would it not be poetic that it sport the greatest crash in history? Vastly unlikely.

Jim

Virginia Jim

Doesn't Advanced Get have an EW module?

Jim

Cal

Whooboy, Jim, you are really counting your chickens here, pal. There ain't gonna be no big drop because such things are rare. And your mumbo jumbo eclipse magic dates are just plain silly.

But you've got a scintillating imagination and good sense of fun and didn't Einstein say imagination was more important than anything? I sure think so.

min

Another dumbass that can't understand written English:

>>calling Gartman as fartman. you know nothing.

Gartman made his career calling the bottom in March. And you claim such nine months later?
You are a liar and/or fool.<<

Posted by: nine months | Sunday, November 01, 2009 at 06:00 AM<<

OH! I feel so hurt being labelled a liar and a fool by some spineless coward that hides behind some one-time poster's name. I don't know how I will ever recuperate from such an insult. WAAAAAAHHHHH!!!!!


Dear Full term pregnancy;

I wasn't calling Gartman a fartman. That post you refer to was aimed at the spineless fool that, much like yourself, posts under non-comittal, inane names other than his own. He happened to use Gartman's name —his bad taste not mine.

If that idiot was you, grow some balls and use your own name or choose a name and stick with it.

At any rate, go wash yourself "nine months" you smell like ass.

Puravida

Cal, I have read Virginia Jim's posts all year on Slope, and his insight and knowledge of trading and history is bar none. I would pay him some heed. It's not whether there's going to be a big drop, it's whether the cycle is going to repeat. Fib numbers keep showing up, you know that.

min

ANOTHER SPINELESS NO NAME NOBODY WROTE:

>>TALKS DAY AND NIGHT 24-7-365. WITH ALL TALKS, THERE IS NOTHING, NOTHING REMOTELY HINT HE WAS LONG NDX (OR ANYTHING) SINCE MARCH.

min CANNOT AND HAVE NOT SHOWN ANYTHING TO PROVE HE WAS LONG NDX ANYTHING SINCE MARCH.

Posted by: rest my case | Sunday, November 01, 2009 at 05:41 AM<<


My God I guess I have been found out!!! This dull 3rd grader that can't seem to write or understand English too well has discovered there is no proof. YEAH RIGHT.

Like I asked you last time "NOBODY" where did YOU LOOK? NOt that I give a shit about proving myself to you anyway.

You and your insignificant other "NINE MONTHS" should both go wash yourselves —you both smell like ASS.

small brain with big mouth7/24/365

tell that to Soros.

Unlike Michael you do not even have character. just boring. enough said.

min, still no evidence of your bottom picking? after all the talk?

min,
min, still no evidence of your bottom picking? after all the talk?

>>TALKS DAY AND NIGHT 24-7-365. WITH ALL TALKS, THERE IS NOTHING, NOTHING REMOTELY HINT HE WAS LONG NDX (OR ANYTHING) SINCE MARCH.

min CANNOT AND HAVE NOT SHOWN ANYTHING TO PROVE HE WAS LONG NDX ANYTHING SINCE MARCH.

Posted by: rest my case | Sunday, November 01, 2009 at 05:41 AM<<

James

>>>I remember threads where min talked about >>>being long going back quite a while

>>I remember it was January and February.
Posted by: James | Sunday, November 01, 2009 at 06:27 AM

>That's an affirmative James. I did fact go long >in January but was stopped out and reentered in >March close to what turned out to be the low >for the year.
>Posted by: min | Monday, November 02, 2009 at >03:28 AM


min,
small brain. I fooled you again (you are very easy to fool around). Must be a big loss in January? you claim you held long positions in June with a huge stop...

Still cannot find any evidence of bottom picking?

James

Mario

Hi Yelnick, Ref. Computerizing Wave Theory
I came to know a couple of years ago that Prechter (Elliott Wave Int.) spent a large amount of money for the development of a software capable to analyse EW but the results were unsatisfactory.
Have you contacted him?
In Italy trials were made on the Milan bluechips index MIB40 and no satisfactory results were obtained.

Best regards and good luck.

jskeelz

Molecool at Evil Speculator has designed several automated trading programs. He is a big EW follower, but I don't know how much EW is incorporated into his programs. In addition, Allen Reminick at Blue Apple Trends has developed 3 publicly available "black box" automated trading programs called Trendsetters 1, 2, and 3. They operate on different time frames. I'm not sure that they include EW, but I know that they include a lot of the time and cycle work that Virginia Slim references. Hope that helps!

Kaori

Trading arsenal have some wave relatins projects upcoming also / under development, it´s for MT4 platform (mostly used for FX trading). (MT5 release upcoming later 2010).

There will be release of expanded fibo relations during this week, but later some more core approach for EW.

Elliotican and AdvancedGet are only decent commercial products out there as far as I am aware. Metastock have alphaomega add-on, but I don´t think it was never big success nor was an Elwave. Elwave might might few working features with it but someone it´s not very comfortable to use.

Hank Wernicki

Yes. Bob P dropped the EW software idea. Offered it for awhile and then distanced the company that created the software. Results were poor.

yelnick

All, great insights into computerization, please keep these coming! I have been in touch with Mole over at EvilSpeculator and need to follow up with him since he has actually tried to develop such a system. My work over in Oz is going well at the early assessment stage. Thanks to all of you.

min

>>Unlike Michael you do not even have character. just boring. enough said.
Posted by: small brain with big mouth7/24/365 | Monday, November 02, 2009 at 05:59 AM<<


I'm so offended "Small brain with big mouth" I don't know if I'll ever be able to recuperate from the humiliation. Boo Hoo Boo Hoo.

Now go wash some more before my dog takes another dump on you, you still smell like ass.

min

>>min,
I fooled you again (you are very easy to fool around). Must be a big loss in January? you claim you held long positions in June with a huge stop...

Still cannot find any evidence of bottom picking?

Posted by: James the no name 'tard | Monday, November 02, 2009 at 06:33 AM.<<

I'm not surprised "James the no name 'tard". You can't even find YOURSELF how could you hope to find evidence of ANYTHING in your condition?

About the only thing you know how to do is pick your nose and spread disinformation.

Now go wash yourself, you still smell like ass and my dog is on his way to your cardboard box to take a dump on you. Don't cry that I didn't warn you.

Andrew Yong

I heard about the use of time cycles and price to assist with elliott wave analysis. www.knowwhentotrade.com

Andrew Yong

I got sucked in by by elliottician or RET. They are a scam. I have used mtpredictor. Don't ever use mtpredictor on forex they hardly even have any trade setups. ELwave just makes packs of elliott wave alternatives that you can't really trade with consistency. Elwave does have interesting rules and guidelines for waves.
www.knowwhentotrade.com

G2

This is Neely's take based on a recent Question of the Week answer:

In the 25 years I've been in this business, I have never worked on or considered producing such a product. Why? It is a waste of time. Like all things in nature, wave theory grows, expands, evolves. Computers can only do what they are told. They can't think, reason, deduce, induce or adapt. If I had gone to the trouble, in 1987 (when I started Mastering Elliott Wave - MEW), to enter every rule and concept presented in my book, by the time the project was concluded (which could have been 1-2 decades later), the market had "moved on," producing new, more complex and unusual patterns (such as NEoWave Diametrics, Neutral Triangles, Symmetricals, 3rd Extension Terminals and other pattern variations not discussed in MEW). As a result, to produce good wave counts, many additional months or years would have been required to tell the computer how to interpret and identify all those new patterns. Once that was finished, new behavior or environments would have emerged to cause the project to continue, ad infinitum.

On the other hand, the human mind can extrapolate, interpolate, induce, deduce, reason, brainstorm, curve fit, rationalize and adapt very quickly. For that reason, if you simply take the time to learn and understand the basics of Elliott Wave and the advanced logic and confirmation rules and concepts of NEoWave, you can (on the fly) adapt and logically combine information in new and complex ways that a computer could never do. As a result, spending the time to learn Elliott Wave and NEoWave concepts is easier, more useful and more effective than spending years trying to get a computer to understand, interpret, label and forecast the future based on past standards of behavior.

Hank Wernicki

Read Science and Sanity by Alfred Korzybski

Light years ahead of the pack

He discovered the waves and fractals ( before anyone else ) <<<<<<<<<<<

Hank


Andrew Young

I think the Hawaian's were the first to discover the waves no?

james

ELWAVE I know several traders who use this software.

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