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Monday, October 26, 2009


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Nice post, Yelnick; thank you.



If we have reached the turning point (SPX, $), would you please revisit your long-term outlook (as I recall, a triangle flat which would end somewhere around 2014)?

In particular, how would an SPX top here (or by Jan.) fit into the election cycle you have often discussed?


jwalker - it certainly is still viable. A was 2002, B was 2007. If a triangle, it means the C wave down off Oct07 will break as a 3 not a 5 (as EWI and the P3 crowd believe). C could break as a 3 or as a more complex structure (which is likely in a triangle). It will be bigger than A so would be an expanding triangle. Normal journey is 1.618x A or around Dow6K. This means it shouldn't go much lower than last March. Time should be less than B or fewer than 5 years, so it should end by 2012. Put these two together and it targets a bottom in 2011 around Dow6K.

Shape would likely require an X wave between the current fall and the subsequent fall. That X may be the current so-called wave 2, which fits the rules (Neely's rules):
- has broken as a simple zigzag (despite all the internal machinations), which is no more complex than prior drop
- has done so in a shorter time that is about 1/3 the time of the first part of C down, and
- has corrected less than 61.8% of the pripor move down

What then should follow is another "3" pattern, which could be a sloppy drop to test the March lows, a slowish rise into summer 2010, and then a sharp drop into the 2011 bottom (ie a flat).

Under the Big Triangle count, we then get a leg D up that is shorter in time but might be pretty long in distance (again, an expanding triangle) into the 2012 election, and then a final drop to what could be lower lows in leg e. Since leg C has dropped more than leg A, this does not fit a contracting triangle/


Dear Yelnick,

I understand that you are using the late Zoran's terminology which is not exactly obvious to everybody because Zoran's writings are not avilable in their entirety. I have seen a few blog posts but not much else.

How is a bifurcation to be understood here?

Do you mean that there are two possibilities available:
1. Dollar up to 7500, then continuation of the down trend and
2. Dollar up to 7500, small oscillation (corrective) and then up it goes?
or do you have something entirely different in mind?

Is there a chaos theoretical tool available , to quantity the approach to a bifurcation point in state space?




Kalidromos, this is what I am exploring with the Zoran Project. The DX has not yet bifurcated, meaning a break beyond the channels of the falling wedge that happens at a steeper angle than the prior fall. EWI looks at a break of a prior wave level, but Neely found that a break of the prior trendline was sufficient. Zoran took Neely a step further with his simplification. I will soon add a Pages section to this blog and compile the basic Zoran materials into one link for easy review. His body of work is in the archives and you can see how his method is elegant in both its simplicity vs prior ewave approaches and its uncanny ability to predict future bifurcation levels and timing.

Hank Wernicki

Gap Up on the Open, great short opportunity

9/25 60 m bottom child

tomorrow is the parent


What is 9/25 60 m bottom child?


Hank Wernicki

the fractal bottom that developed on 9/25 60 minute chart = today + 3 - 4 days

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