search elliott


  • Google
Share/Bookmark

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

FlagCounter

  • Where From?
    free counters
Related Posts with Thumbnails

« Cash4GDP Updated | Main | Computerizing Wave Theory »

Friday, October 30, 2009

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

psycho_puppies

In the past the free week was a kiss of death for the bears. … but I fell the k-wave winder breeze blowing. I say burn-baby-burn!

Free

Hence the minimal view that we replicate the type of drop we saw after Jun11 is sound. Whether it is much worse has not yet been confirmed by market waves (which reflect underlying psychology of market participants).

The wildcard is the Dow, which has not yet confirmed the break.

---------------------------------

Yelnick, seems to have a contradiction there.. your title says 'Last Chance to Get Out', but you also said on the minimum we replicate the June 11 drop, but whether 'it is much worse has not yet been confirmed by market waves'. And also 'The wildcard is the Dow, which has not yet confirmed the break'.

So if what is happening now is not yet known if it could be worse than the June 11 drop, and there is no confirmation by the dow yet, then why is it the last chance to get out?.. if the drop is not worse/or smae as the June 11 drop, does it mean this is merely a correction, and not a last chance to get out? Could it be another false alarm again? There have been quite a few titles with 'Last Chance to Get Out' already!

The technical picture shows negative divergences all over the place, and a nasty rising wedge. But that could only lead to a correction, not a catastrophic crash. Barry Ritholtz from The Big Picture holds quite a balanced view. He sees not a crash, but a 5% or more correction. Jeremy Grantham thinks the dow is unlikely to test the Mar lows, so no crash. Both men had seen the crisis coming, and had forecasted accurately the Mar rally.

The Fed has been bailing out banks, injecting massive liquidations and pulling all sorts of tricks to pump up the market. If the dow tank substantially, or if any of the banks or institutions are again going to collapse, or if the economy starts to have signs of getting worse, will the Fed again roll out Bailout Package Part 2, Stimulus Package Part 2, QE Part 2 again? In this kind of environment, will the crash ever materalize?


psycho_puppies

Free,
The DOW is a dinosaur used by the sheeple. Where is the DOW at Bla bla bla…?. Follow the $SPX. IMHO

Free

puppies, in the context of 'If the dow tank substantially,or if any of the banks or institutions are again going to collapse, or if the economy starts to have signs of getting worse', it is meant for the US stock market, not just an index.

Greg

I am relatively new here and I appreciate the efforts of everyone to make it an interesting read. I agree with the last comment of Free. If I could expand a little on this I would say: a) A lot of EWistas are so mesmerized by the views of their guru to the point they think he(she) is a prophet. Price actions are nothing more than pieces of information absorbed by the market day in and day out in non uniform way depending among other things on expectations etc. We all learned that from our books but some of us have hard time to accept it. I don’t see anything out there that guarantees that two or more charts that look alike up to a point will evolve similarly, b) Lots of people keep talking about the famous deflation and the impact it will have on FX, hard assets, paper assets and so on as if the fed is not aware of that risk. The Fed is doing all it can to reflate together with all central banks, they made some progress on this project and I bet they will not give it up. For someone to believe that everything will fall apart despite all the progress made and, more importantly, the control obtained on key levers of the economy by central banks is possible but very - very unlikely. It is a rare but somewhat widely anticipated event and that makes it more unlikely, c) I learned my lesson allowing myself to get influenced by a particular guru (I will not say who since I have nothing against him, I take responsibility for my choices) when in Nov last year I subscribed and followed him for a couple of months. Since then I unsubscribed to the service but my point is that the “predictions” have so many “solutions” that most of us can easily get caught into seeing the market through filters instead of trading flow, d) I find EW very educational on categorizing the past, as an exercising of taxonomy of market history given the economic events that drove it but with very limited usefulness when it comes to trading successfully. Maybe I am not smart enough or should try harder. Thanks.

psycho_puppies

Free,
The DOW is not the U.S. stock market it’s a measure of 30 stocks. You have to look at the big picture. The S&P has a P/E well over 100 what are we arguing anyway? . And yes a crash will materialize because you cannot print yourself to prosperity.

Free

puppies.. you still don't understand what I posted. Of course everybody knows the dow constitutes only a handful of stocks, the S&P is the broader index. What I meant was, when I refered to the dow, it is as like a generic term, I am refering to the US stock market. I could have said the dow, S&P and Nasdaq, but when people say the dow, and viewed in the entirety of the context of my post, it meant the market.

Mike McQuaid

A lower trendline is support not resistance.
SPX has support at 1020 from Oct 2. Let's break support before we start counting impulses down and dismiss the corrections of the March reversal rally.

Free

Greg, yes, its important not to be mesmerized or get too caught up with any particular guru's views. I am open to the possibility of a crash, but am also wary of those who are over zealous in calling for a crash. Let me say here that I do not think Yelnick is the over zealous type. I have enjoyed his postings and found them informative.

There is one thing on whether the Fed will continue its efforts to pump the markets though. According to investigative journalists Daniel Estulin and Jim Tucker, one of the agenda of Bilderberg 2009 is to pump the markets, then let it collapse:

"The plan is for the Bilderberg Group players, through their allies in Washington and Wall Street to continue to deceive millions of savers and investors who believe the hype about the supposed up-turn in the economy. They are about to be set up for massive losses and searing financial pain in the months ahead."

If that is true, then yes, a crash is coming, and it is not too surprising given the fundamentals anyway. There are several questions however, on why the manipulators will want a collapse. In any case, here's a link:

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/10854

DG

expectations have grown that we at least drop another 5% or so to Sp980.

I don't think we get that far just yet. I've got around 101 SPY as a target for now.

Hockthefarm

Yelnick:

Tony Caldaro's comments tonight seem to support your notion for a bounce next week (5 waves complete):

"Yesterday's strong rally ended within the range of the OEW 1061 pivot. Today the market reversed yesterday's entire rally and made a new low for the decline at 1034. This represents a 67 point decline from the SPX 1101 high, the largest drop since the uptrend began in early July. The count we have been following from the SPX 1101 high continues to track the market: wave 1 SPX 1074, wave 2 SPX 1096, and wave 3 underway. Wave 3 has been subdividing as follows: wave 1 SPX 1075, wave 2 SPX 1092, wave 3 SPX 1042, wave 4 SPX 1067 and wave 5 currently reaching SPX 1034. At today's low the short term charts are sufficiently oversold to end wave 3, and the hourly chart is displaying a slight positive divergence. The VIX, btw, is now in an uptrend. Best to your weekend!"

Hock

Greg

Free, regarding Yelnick, I guess we should all be grateful for the time and effort he puts for this space. I didn’t have him in mind either. I find his collections of forecasts by others tilted towards some bias, his own I guess, but that’s the whole point. It’s not about reporting but about having your views being proved correct by reality. That’s the game. On Bilderberg Group, if you are really – really afraid that this is the “one thing” that could put Fed’s intentions at risk then…we are in pretty good shape. That said, thanks for the link.

Perigee

I think that many miss the point of subscriptions to services like EWI et al. If you do it because you think you will make a ton of money following someone else, then you are indeed a fool. Trading is 80% money management, 20% selection. Every day before I begin battle with the markets, I ask myself - do I want to be right or do I want to make money. I subscribe to GMP (the monthly roundup). I am not particularly interested in any count of theirs - I know from experience that if I hold a bias then I will naturally want to seek confirmation from other sources so I have taught myself to ignore what everyone else is saying.Why I subscribe is simple - I neither have the time nor the resources to obtain some of the data, statistics or otherwise observations that are oftem included. By way of case in point, this weekend's GMP contains a very good summary of the Goldmans history and charts various events against GS price. Will it help me make money - no. But I find it interesting and if I was further interested and wanted to trade it I would be encouraged to do my own further research. For those who consistently wish to denigrate the work of others, it is more a sad reflection on them.

I am a short-term trader but have a fascination with longer-term cycles and so play around with that when time permits (just for fun) - FWIW I am still very confident that my longer term outlook of the US being in a C wave (off 2007 top) which is unfolding as a diagonal triangle will be correct. We have just finished the first wave up (A) of an (A)-(B)-(C) second wave of the diagonal triangle - the (B) wave should meander down into third quarter 2010 before a very sharp (C) wave takes us up into mid 2011. Then we get the third wave of the diagonal triangle down which many will mistake for the big P3. This should complete in 2012 before a rise into 2014 (4th wave with the obligatory overlap - the point of recognition for EWI that it is a DT) and panic to the final bottom with the usualthrowunder to complete the diagonal triangle in 2016. Longer term and medium term cycles all line up and increase the confidence. I do believe a DT will fit better than EWI current interpretation.

Hockthefarm

Greg:

I'm not a trader, but the following came to to mind when reading your post:

"Since then I unsubscribed to the service but my point is that the “predictions” have so many “solutions” that most of us can easily get caught into seeing the market through filters instead of trading flow, d) I find EW very educational on categorizing the past, as an exercising of taxonomy of market history given the economic events that drove it but with very limited usefulness when it comes to trading successfully. Maybe I am not smart enough or should try harder."

I follow Prechter to try and get a feel for what is coming one to two years out and to try and pick up on a trend that will last a few months. Regarding the former, he is calling for 5 years of deflation. That prediction is based on his "Taxonomy" studies of the past. His look at the past informed him that all credit induced bubbles from the past had the exact same outcome: Deflation.

I don't know about you, but for me, getting the inflation/deflation debate correct for the next 2 or 3 years, will probably shave 10 years off the time I will have to work for a living and will have a big impact on my standard of living in retirement. What stocks do on Monday or next week for that matter is just pure gambling imo. In those time frames I believe EW gives you a potential roadmap and importantly tells you fairly quickly when you are wrong. That's my simpleton's view of it at any rate.

H

Miguel

SHANGHAI
Yelnick
you did not make any more references to SHANGAI in the last 2 weeks;
It seems to me that they entered in their third wave and that thin will look pretty ugly over there next week, so that they may spill over seriously.
What is your view on that?

min

>>Maybe I am not smart enough or should try harder. Thanks.<<

AGREE

min

>>expectations have grown that we at least drop another 5% or so to Sp980.

I don't think we get that far just yet. I've got around 101 SPY as a target for now.<<


More or less how I'm playing it. Also looking for divergences between SPX/DOW vs NDX/NAZ to increase

Frank C

Hey spazoids--

Cool your jets. There's no Bildenberg conspiracy. The markets are taking a much needed pause. Elliot waves are as bogus as alien anal probes. The recesssion ended. The world is not ending.

Frank

DG

More or less how I'm playing it. Also looking for divergences between SPX/DOW vs NDX/NAZ to increase

Ideally, we'd just barely undercut the SPY October low before a rebound. That rebound would target the SPY 106 area.

DG

alien anal probes

Frank, we're not interested in how you spend your weekends.

Dressing As DG tonight

DG et al:

Have to agree with Frank. You guys mistake every correction for the next coming. EW works no better than anything else. No one can figure out markets.

Charles Irving "The Tape" Taplinger

I saw this market back in '18. It fooled everyone, even "Bags" Reynolds and the shortside king himself, Jesse L.

Just when you think we're going to collapse, the ballon inflates. Don't listen to this Prechter bozo. Anybody who says they know is wrong. Waves are for sissies who want to plan everything out nice and neat and talk about probabilities and other bs the market doesn't have patience for. If you want to make money, get long and get some inside info. That's the way the big guys make money. These Elliott fags sell subscriptions they don't trade. I've got no time for that crap. I'm lucky if I live another month.

full time trader

Do you pay self-employment tax as a full-time trader? What's the best way to file tax w/IRS?

Michael

So many pundits and "gurus" looking for the market to fall apart here. Even CNBC paraded a ton of BEARS on their broadcast after the market closed on Friday. "Last Chance to Get Out"???
Hardly.

Prechter and all of his "followers" will clearly cheerlead any correction as the beginning of P3, yet if the market finds support in the next 10-20 SPX points and rallies back up above any regular fibonacci retracements the Elliott wavers will simply fall back on yet another one of their ALTERNATE COUNTS just as they have since early August . . . telling everyone to continue shorting the market even as it makes new highs.

Interestingly enough, with all of the talk about US Dollar strength on Friday as the culprit behind the "sell-off", the Euro still didn't take out Wednesday's low and is still being supported by the 40 day MA.

dollar

>with all of the talk about US Dollar strength on Friday as the culprit behind the "sell-off", the Euro still didn't take out Wednesday's low and is still being supported by the 40 day MA.

Jing, your comment?

target

Michael,

Now I know you are old enough to have anger toward everything, and I won't pay attention to your comments toward Bears/Prechter.

What's your targets (ES, dollar) by year end after this correction?

DG

Have to agree with Frank. You guys mistake every correction for the next coming. EW works no better than anything else. No one can figure out markets.

Can you please point out a place where I said a correction was "the next coming". If by that, you mean I think that the March lows could be violated to the downside, then, OK, I am guilty of that. Big deal. First of all, what would it matter to you if I thought that and secondly, what is your "proof" that it won't happen? The market will go where it's going to go and one of us will be right. Either way, proclaiming victory for the view that the March lows will hold now seems a bit premature.

Also, what do you mean, specifically, by "figure out markets"? If markets are truly random, then a trader who was consistently right 50.1% of the time can make some claim to having figured them out, since his probability of a successful trade is higher than the 50% implied by randomness.

Thanks in advance.

Account Deleted

dollar:

First I feel somewhat more modest because my prior predictions about Crude/Gold making a blowoff run have not happened yet. That is why I am not saying much these days.

The EUR/USD wave pattern since the supposed reveral is not crystal clear, and there are different valid interpretations. That is why I am only 75% long at this point, despite my generally strong convictions based on sentiment, momentum, breadth and pre-reversal wave patterns.

My preferred count says we have completed a 1-2 wave down for ERU/USD, and now we are setting up a subwave 1-2 down. This is probably the most bearish count you can come up with, and it shows I am probably biased.

Nevertheless, for this count to be valid, the EUR/USD must stay below 1.4858. And Euro must rally on Monday and perhaps Tuesday as well. This rally should be small and must stay below 1.4858, or this bearish count is invalidated.

If this count actually works out, then after this small rally fades, the Euro will be in 3rd of the 3rd wave down, which will be downright freightening, even for USD bulls like me. Sometimes I wonder if Euro can go down so fast with so little corrections, even in a 3rd wave down.

On the other hand, if this count is broken, then it probably means Euro is having a stronger correction upwards and this will be more consistent with US stock market wave patterns.

What I do know though, is that despite the sharp USD rally, there is still a lot of shock and disbeief among the experts and general public. People question the ligitimacy of this rally, and suspect it is just a fake-out. And yes, people still say USD is going to die next year bla bla bla. This is exactly what you would expect to see in Wave 3 Personality. And that is why Wave 3 is so dynamic and yet so elusive, as most people are just not emotionally well positioned to benefit from it.

min

>>You guys mistake every correction for the next coming. EW works no better than anything else. No one can figure out markets.

Posted by: Dressing As DG tonight<<


Thanks for your advise cross dresser I feel enlightened now.

>>Cool your jets. There's no Bildenberg conspiracy. The markets are taking a much needed pause. Elliot waves are as bogus as alien anal probes. The recesssion ended. The world is not ending.

Frank<<

Thanks for the reality check friend of cross dresser what would I do without your informed opinions.

Oh by the way, I had been long NDX since March and recently exited at what looks to be the top. In 2008 I also 10x'd my trading portfolio mainly with these stupid E-Waves that don't seem to work very well for you.

Some of this is documented on this blog if you care to search. If you have something that works for you, more power to you. If you're searching you may want to re-read some of the material you've had problems with

min

>>Waves are for sissies who want to plan everything out nice and neat and talk about probabilities and other bs the market doesn't have patience for.
Posted by: Charles Irving "The Tape" Taplinger<<

Another bit of valuable advise from the in-bred Saturday trio. Thanks for this wonderful bit of arm-chair quarterbacking Charlie.

You know, the real sissie are those without the skill to profitably short the market —like you.

I'll give you one thing though, Prechter is a BOZO! I totally agree with you on that. However you're a BOZO for confusinfg a perma-bear's warped sense of timing with a powerful TA tool. Your in-bred level IQ is showing through.

Fact is the big boyz also use E-Waves along with other tools. Difference is they know what they're doing, Prechter not so much most of the time.

It's the WEILDER OF THE TOOL NOT THE TOOL ITSELF THAT IS FLAWED.

min

>>Do you pay self-employment tax as a full-time trader? What's the best way to file tax w/IRS?<<

A FULL TIME trader that doesn't know this? For real?

Do I smell a future train wreck?

Good luck to you though. Ask your accountant or consult an attorney they're the best ones to advise you as they will know your whole story. Getting info like this on the web is asking for it.

Most of all I would advise you to start very small it's not an easy profession to succeed at.

small brain

min
with your little knowledge...
there is more than one way to file tax return as a full time trader.

rest my case

I had been long NDX since March and recently exited at what looks to be the top. In 2008 I also 10x'd my trading portfolio mainly with these stupid E-Waves that don't seem to work very well for you.
Posted by: min | Sunday, November 01, 2009 at 02:23 AM

min TALKS DAY AND NIGHT 24-7-365. WITH ALL TALKS, THERE IS NOTHING, NOTHING REMOTELY HINT HE WAS LONG NDX (OR ANYTHING) SINCE MARCH.

min CANNOT AND HAVE NOT SHOWN ANYTHING TO PROVE HE WAS LONG NDX ANYTHING SINCE MARCH..

DG

CANNOT AND HAVE NOT SHOWN ANYTHING TO PROVE HE WAS LONG NDX ANYTHING SINCE MARCH..

I don't know the exact details and the search function on this blog is pretty bad, but I remember threads where min talked about being long going back quite a while and occasionally he'd mention that he'd raised his stops as we moved higher.

I think the idea that he's lying about what he's been saying is inaccurate.

James

>I remember threads where min talked about being long going back quite a while

I remember it was January and February.

Paul

Close enough for government work

>I remember threads where min talked about being long going back quite a while

I remember it was January and February.

Michael

"Now I know you are old enough to have anger toward everything, and I won't pay attention to your comments toward Bears/Prechter. What's your targets (ES, dollar) by year end after this correction?" - target

You won't pay attention to what I have to say about Bears or Prechter, but you are most interested in my year end target?

You are a joke.

a joke

>You won't pay attention to what I have to say about Bears or Prechter,
Yes I already heard enough. I am not a fan of Prechter, and simply not interested.

>but you are most interested in my year end target?
Yes I am interested to see whether you learned anything from your former bosses.

Mamma Boom Boom

Michael, how did it happen that you are now on the outside when once your were in the eye of the storm. Just curious.

Eventhorizon

Hi DG,

I know you are just throwing the 50.1% argument out there for the sake of ... well ... argument. But it raises an interesting issue regarding trading performance.

As a substitute for the question "has this trader figures out the markets?" we can reasonably substitute the quantitative question: "did this trader beat the market at a statistically significant level?"

The basic problem is that the closer you get to being "just a little bit better than a coin flip" (e.g. 50.1%) the more samples you need to be sure it isn't within the random variation of the coin-flip outcome. Take 100k trades (10 trades a day for 40 years) made using a coin-flip, 26% of the time a coin-flipper would have 50,100 or more wins (50.1%, is 100 wins more than the expected outcome of a coinflip, 0.63 standard deviations above expectation, 1 SD is 158 = sqrt(100,000x.5x.5)).

So 1 of every 4 traders with such a record did it by luck alone!

If I did the stats wrong, let me know, I am not great at this stuff!

Furthermore, trading success goes beyond simple win-loss ratios (obviously, DG, I know you know this stuff). My understanding is that trend-followers do very well even though their win-loss ratios are typically in the 30-40% range.

Hockthefarm

For the statistically inclined:

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/moprinter.htm

It says deflation.

Your "I think Prechter is right" poster,
Hock

Hockthefarm

From the previous CI post:

Age Demographic
Growth In Age Specific US Population


20-24 years (Age Demographic)
85% (Growth In Age Specific US Population )

25-34
75

35-44
99

45-54
158

55-64
153

65+
237

Dent is really into this stuff. He is also a bit of a waver. He is more of a deflationist than Prechter. Will publish his reworked book in early Jan.

Hock

Hockthefarm

I meant to add the following:

I have 3 brothers that are retired now. It has been amazing to watch them substitute time for consumption. When you have time to plan things, you do. And you spend a lot more time planning than consuming.

Dent understands this.

Hock

DG

Eventhorizon,

Yes, there are some statistical measures that are often thrown around to show that even the most successful traders' track records are indistinguishable from luck.

Those sorts of arguments seem to me to take things out of the practical realm and into the philosophical, which is fine, but it has to be recognized for what it is.

My main point in asking the question was to just get some clarity around what "figure out the market" means. It's a very generic turn of phrase and without quantifying it, we can't know when it has or hasn't happened.

Michael

"Now I know you are old enough to have anger toward everything, and I won't pay attention to your comments toward Bears/Prechter.

(But) What's your targets (ES, dollar) by year end after this correction? Yes I am interested to see whether you learned anything from your former bosses."

That would pre-suppose that you know anything about what Paul Tudor Jones thinks where the US Dollar is going. My guess is that you don't.

I do because I am an investor in the Tudor BVI Global Fund and Paul said quite clearly in his recent performance letter to investors on Oct. 15th that the Dollar is going lower and he expects gold and commodities to go a lot higher as the "run ( in equities ) could continue well into the first quarter of next year." In similar vein, he sees "the currencies of commodity exporters continuing to OUTPERFORM the majors as demand for metals and agricultural goods remains elevated and foreign investors seek higher yields." Not surprisingly, he is bullish on the Australian Dollar as well as the Brazilian real, Chinese yuan, Korean won, as well as non-Japan Asian currencies in general.

Michael

"Michael, how did it happen that you are now on the outside when once your were in the eye of the storm. Just curious."

Ned, why would you perceive that I was in the "eye of the storm" when working for Paul Jones in a 50/50 deal while being his COMEX broker and (in your words) am now on the "outside" when I have been self-employed since 1987 and reaping 100% gains from my own capital and trading?

I would suggest that your ideas of being "on the outside" and in the "eye of the storm" are rather naive and presuppose a lot of qualitative/quantitative judgements on your part.

Tudor

>That would pre-suppose that you know anything about what Paul Tudor Jones thinks where the US Dollar is going. My guess is that you don't.

I can take (or even like) arrogant people as long as they are intelligent. My question was NOT whether you know what Paul Tudor thinks, but whether you learned from him (more than just a copy cat). Besides his analysis does not seem much different from others, anyway.

>in his recent performance letter...

again there is no "your", but "your former boss's" analysis. if copies from your former boss's subscriptions is all you can say, I'd say you did not learn enough.

Though, it's great of you to highly regard your Former bosses...

Michael

"Michael, how did it happen that you are now on the outside when once your were in the eye of the storm. Just curious."

Ned, why would you perceive that I was in the "eye of the storm" when working for Paul Jones in a 50/50 deal while being his COMEX broker and (in your words) am now on the "outside" when I have been self-employed since 1987 and reaping 100% gains from my own capital and trading?

I would suggest that your ideas of being "on the outside" as opposed to being in the "eye of the storm" are rather naive and presuppose a lot of qualitative/quantitative judgements on your part that are not relevant to one's successful performance as a trader, let alone their ability to make money or how they are compensated.

Given your bio I would not expect you to understand what it is like to work for a hedge-fund manager, let alone on or off the commodity exchange floor as a member, or in the capacity as a registered CTA. That having been said, I think that you presuppose a lot of what it would be like to work for a legendary commodity fund manager like Paul Tudor Jones or someone like Louis Moore Bacon, George Soros, or Stanley Druckenmiller.

Tudor

Michael,

Although I am not very impressed, your postings today were much entertaining than previous ones.

Keep up the good work.

Michael

"My question was NOT whether you know what Paul Tudor thinks, but whether you learned from him."

Yes, I learned all sorts of things about how one can look at the markets via sentiment, analogs, technicals, etc. But perhaps some of the greatest things that I learned from Paul had to do more from his mental capacity and with his ability to be aggressive, continually "testing" various markets by constantly pulling the "trigger" - - - leaving his EGO out of the decision-making process and not sabotaging himself (like so many others do) by only being able to trade in ONE DIRECTION as a "perma-bear" or "perma-bull".

Stevie Cohen once said that his BEST traders are only right 55% of the time.
Paul's trading methodology and mental approach to trading certainly reflected and exemplified this. While I don't have the time to get any more specific and spend hours here answering all sorts of questions about my experiences working for Paul (and Victor Sperandeo) I hope this answers your question.

The comments to this entry are closed.