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« We May Have Just Topped | Main | The Financial Panic Necklace and the 1987 Historical Analogy »

Friday, October 23, 2009


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Michael Locker

I am not sure if we are going to have an "imminent crash" as I put it earlier. I am looking for a big (greater than 40%) downside move in most markets but it may take days or even a month. Like the brown bear, I am not inherently attuned to keep my positions despite contrary evidence (the definition of insanity as someone once put it).

I am interested in the pattern of spikes in the image posted above and wonder if they might symbolize the pain that many who have been caught on the wrong side of the bull have felt.

The bull (symbolizing those looking for moves to higher levels) may just have his day! We shall see.

I am not a blind Precther follower but I will admit that he was right in 87!
My god was he right!!!

He has been wrong almost always since but, again, even if you are down 99% by following his advice you might just have a chance to make it up if you invest wisely etc.

Account Deleted

Since I am a Canadian, I figure I might want to share this interesting opportunity. For bears who are stuck with the stock market going nowhere, I believe this is a better opportunity:

Speculative Canadian Dollar Longs Indicate Extreme

Latest CFTC Release Dated October 20, 2009:

The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a specific number of weeks (either 52 or 13). A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming. The readings are for the actual currency, not the currency pair. For example, a reading of 100 on the Canadian Dollar suggests that the Canadian Dollar is close to a top (USDCAD close to a bottom).


Mamma Boom Boom

What would be especially devastating to the real estate market, would be another cashforhouses program and sales going down in spite of it. That would show that, once again, the government has lost control.

Account Deleted

A couple more great opportunities for Elliott Wave fans. See the following article for hourly charts for Gold and Crude Oil:

You can see both are probably forming a triangle, after a steady rise that was most likely a 3rd wave. The triangles will probably be completed on Monday or Tuesday for Gold, and around Tuesday for Oil. Gold is further along in the triangle pattern, but Oil triangle waves are shorter. So it is possible both will complete around the same day next week.

What happens afterwards is probably a 5th wave thrust for both to make new highs (record high for Gold). This will probably accompany the spike down in USD, and help USD to complete all its outstanding waves. If you look at daily charts for Gold and Oil, you will see such a thrust can nicely complete all their outstanding waves too.

On USD - the frustrating thing about EURUSD wave pattern is that it can be counted as complete right now, on multiple degrees of the downtrend. Yet Euro takes its time to map its final 5th wave up, showing no impulse wave in the opposite direction at all. So it seems Euro is patiently waiting for Gold and Crude to complete their wave patterns. The problem here is that this wait cannot be too long, or Euro wave count will start looking strange.

In summary, if this count is correct, early next week will mark blowoffs in Gold and Crude, spike down in USD, which are all terminal waves in their current trends.

In terms of stock market, I am not sure how it will respond, as stocks are not as strongly correlated with USD as commodities recently. Plus the stock market wave patterns drive me crazy anyway. So no comments there. :)

Philadelphia Pennsylvania Real Estate

I recently came across your blog and have been reading about buying a new home. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

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