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« Dollar May Have Bottomed - Let the Melt-up Begin! | Main | Bifurcation! »

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

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denis

Yelnick,
Where is the link for the chapter 13 please.
This one does'nt work
Thanks for your good work.
Denis

yelnick

Denis, it should just open up when clicked upon into a PDF. Hmmm. Try this link: http://yelnick.typepad.com/files/13_canthefed.pdf

Or click tot he prior post and click thru from there. http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/01/the-kondratieff-indian-summer-brings-global-winter.html

rzero

Prechter does not understand the causes of inflation and deflation. THE crash hasn't happened yet. When it does it will be inflationary. The Fed won't be able to STOP the inflation.

mannfm11

Quite interestingly, I am sitting in a sports bar on wifi reading your post and I brought the old book, CTC. Wish I had waited a couple of months. I read at the crest in 1998 and from what I already knew, Prechter was right on the subject, wrong on the timing. I know you have seen the series of 2's on the most recent EWFF, which will be a historic technical chart if Prechter is correct. I fully expect him to be correct, as the bubbles have burst and the only thing that is being done is an attempt to speculate and lie our ways out of a deep recession or better phrased, a depression.

Account Deleted

Totally agree with mannfm11.

Prechter is a bad market timer, but he is a great analyst, intellectual and thinker.

Don't take his market timing advice too seriously or you may get wiped out. But do take his thoughts seriously, as even if you disagree with him, you can probably learn something from him.

min

Can a "Market FORCASTING Firm" (what EWI calls itself on their own website)really divorce itself from the important element of time?

Can an analyst really be a great analyst if his analyzing is off by 10, 20, 30 years?

Who would benefit from such grossly mistimed analyzing?

Star Trek's Rodenberry was shooting Star Trek episodes in the late 1960s citing the turmoils of the early 21st century --this was way before Prechter and a lot more timely. Should he be considered a great analyst as well?

Other Science Fiction writers and Philosophers have also put forth many acurate (and much more timely) depictions of our future. Should these guys be looked at as great Market Analysts?

Don't 99.99% of the uninitiated go to EWI for market information that can help them trade or invest better? Would seem logical to me.

For interesting future forecasts we have Nostradamus, fortune tellers, Science fiction writers, good historians, Religion.

Prechter seems to be none of the above.

Any one of us could do some diligent research and come up with a theory of our future if we were so inclined. As long as we possessed an IQ of 120 or better and didn't fuss about timing, our theory would eventually come true.

Civilizations have been self destructing ever since man started separating himself from the animal kingdom. For that matter this whole universe has been in one continouos growth/destruction cycle of one magnitude or another. This has been verified many times by different scientific studies.

Is Prechter's Armaggedon forecast really that clever? I guess it might have been had he gotten the timing more or less right but he didn't and those expecting Armageddon this time around will be in for another bout of disappointment I'm afraid.

To me someone worthy of admiration and adulation is the one who can figure out and remedy man's penchant to self-destruct his creations every so often.

I never had any qualms about acknowledging Prechter as a good writer but a market forecaster (per his web site) or even an "analyst"? Give me a fuckin' break.

Bird

The real problem with a smart, confident, excellent writer like Prechter (and probably Greenspan during the same time span) is that he sounds like he knows what he is talking about. He sounds like he should not be wrong 20 years running. Thousands of people gullibly but understandably followed his advice and lost vast amounts of money and opportunity. Prechter may always believe himself when he pontificates the future. If so, he should stick to his guns. But if he has any doubt, his conscience should reclaim caution from the wind.

Rich

Min, I largely agree with your comments. There is a season for everything. It is easy to predict something improbably and wait decades for it to come true. Eventually, every prediction comes true.

Yelnick, why are you always massaging Prechter's crank? We might get deflation but we haven't seen it yet. At least, I could make as convincing a case for inflation.

Bird, if you think Prechter is an "excellent writer" you need to start reading more. May I recommend Eliot, Fielding, Orwell, Vonnegut, Twain, Poe, Fitzgerald? Or how about the back of a cereal box?

J. Ino

Min,
"I never had any qualms about acknowledging Prechter as a good writer but a market forecaster (per his web site) or even an "analyst"? Give me a fuckin' break."

An forecaster/analyst compares to other forcaster/analysts. In this respect let just say Prechter taught us a lot. Made us think a different way about market behavior, driving forces, news/events, cause/effect etc. He certainly made wrong calls; some of his calls looked improbably absurd at the time he made them.
But he made clear and identifiable calls. I prefer this kind of forecast over ...on the other hand... kind of analysis.

You might find hard to name 3 other analyst/forecaster whose work in the last 25 years is as clear, bold and, yes, valuable as his is.


appalled, saddened and, well, nauseated

Bold, clear, valuable.

J. Ino, my feeble-brained fellow, you are a seeping pocket of pus in the anal fissure of life. It's reassuring to know our nation has powerful thinkers like you to defend us, deepen the intellectual pool and keep our horizons bright.

Denis

thanks Yelnik , it work this time.

Golum

"Can an analyst really be a great analyst if his analyzing is off by 10, 20, 30 years?"

In a word, "yes." The novel, "Dune" is a testament to that.
This is the century of water...not oil.

same old apocalyptic middlebrow shit

Eh. The Dune thing doesn't work for me. Nice try thought.

Write when you get rich.

Virginia Jim

Prechter and EWI provide an excellent background and cohesive, seemless phiolosphy in all the important aspects of interrelated economics, technical analysis according to several methodologies, and sociological cycles. They might be wrong 40% of the time (I think they're better than that) but 60% is Vegas odds.

Jim

Virginia Jim

Wedges.

On a non log basis, two of three indices and the dollar are testing/kissing back the lower trend line of the classic their respective wedges from March 9, 2009. Failure to reacquire the trend line elevates the probability that all will indices will begin their journey to the wedges’ minimum measurement objectives; retrace to the wedge beginning FASTER than it took to build.

http://www.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Jim/folders/Jing/media/d63548ec-aa7e-40b3-b712-15d70fd6aedb

All of the indices’ wedges fit perfectly the classic definition according to Edwards and Magee. That definition requires as confirmation that volume DECREASE NOTABLY over the duration of the wedge until it simply “peters out.” When volume “peters out” price falls below the lower trend line, retests and, upon failure, accelerates towards its measurement objective.

In stark contrast, the much lauded “inverted head and shoulders” that has March 9, 2009 as the head is an INVALID pattern according to the classic definition. That inverted H&S projects 1229 as the measurement objective. However, according to Edwards and Magee, volume must INCREASE NOTABLY to the right of the head. The exact opposite has occurred.

If you looked at the above charts on a log basis, all indices have violated the trend line and the breaks are far worse.

http://www.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Jim/folders/Jing/media/1a5dc9d0-6e65-49d0-a02d-49ce594906d6

According to classic TA, the safe entry to take a position is after a trend break exceeds 3% of the value of the stock at the point of the break. Typically after the test and, provided it is a genuine break, price diverges from the lower trend line rapidly and with increasing volume.

It appears to me we’re peering over the cliff.

Jim

Michael

Jim,

With all due respect, you should really stop drinking from the Prechter "Kool-Aid" and take a moment to actually verify his track record over the last 20 years. Care to remember how well he did with his call back in 2003? How about 1993? Those two incorrect wave counts (and calls) literally wiped one's trading account out completely. We are talking BANKRUPTCY here my friend!

Meanwhile, recently Prechter issued a 50% short recommendation back on August 5th in his newsletter when the SPX was at 1000. Do you think that being "underwater" 100 handles of the S&P at the recent high is a great call? How do you think that people have done with that recent call of his if they were long August, September, or October puts?

Answer: The put options expired worthless and they lost all of their money.


Ron Stein

Michael has a good point. The most important thing in trading is to keep your bets small. But even if you'd only bet 2% of your pile each turn Prechter would've pretty much wiped you out. His advice hasn't been merely inconsistent. It has been almost utterly consistently poor, notably dire bearishness at dozens of points during powerful bull moves since December '87. Now, you can find an exception or two. Like last summer. But it takes more than the occasional exception to undo the damage that following Prechter will have wrought. He is, like anyone who sells advice instead of quietly employing it himself, a joker. It's just that he wraps his advice in pseudo-intellectual trappings that seem profound to those who haven't had many deep thoughts, themselves. Systems thinking has been around before Prechter and before that other middlebrow, Gladwell, and before Ralph Elliott and Mandelbrot. At least Mandelbrot has the rigor. And the sense to admit his insights make for no crystal ball.

If you have a brain, try to use it. Keep your bets small. Read history. Read widely. Talk to people of varied opinions. Try to see trees and forests.

But do not abrogate responsibility and sense by imparting to putative "market gurus" crystal balls they DO NOT HAVE. IF THEY DID THEY WOULD KEEP THEIR SECRETS SECRET!

DG

And the sense to admit his insights make for no crystal ball.

I'm not a user of Prechter's market timing advice in any way, shape or form, but I would highly doubt that anywhere in there he's claimed to have a "crystal ball".

He is, like anyone who sells advice instead of quietly employing it himself, a joker.

Since you admire Mandelbrot's "rigor", I assume you've employed an equally-rigorous empirical analysis to reach this conclusion. Care to share your data?

min

Virginia Jim:

>>They might be wrong 40% of the time (I think they're better than that) but 60% is Vegas odds.

Jim<<

If you go by my tabulation based on 2001-early 2005 data points, they're wrong 9 out of 10 times.

If you go by the tabulation at this website (which doesn't include STU's and EWFF's and EWT's foibles) it's a wrong over 60% of the time not 40% wrong -that would be way out of their league.

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/Prechter/

min

>>I'm not a user of Prechter's market timing advice in any way, shape or form, but I would highly doubt that anywhere in there he's claimed to have a "crystal ball".<<

True, EWI has stopped short of actually claiming such, but they are very proud of their fearless leader. Meanwhile, the "strength of his convictions" gimmick has made him a renewed and sizeable following it seems.

I'm cool with this. It's good to know where my money will come from when "devastating P3" morphs into a sizeable correction and disapoints.

min

J. Ino;

Elliott was the inventor/discoverer of Elliott Waves. Not Prechter. I am grateful for the simple well-written book he wrote and have always acknowledged that.

As a forecaster/analyst he's close to bottom of the heap if not THE bottom -well perhaps except for my cat, but my dog would give him a run for his money (joke).

I guess his Intellectual/philosophical, Socionomic writings impress you and I respect that --honestly.

I have had better and more thorough exposure to that kind of thing from others that devoted their whole life to that sort of thing, so I guess I don't have much use for that so can't be as reverent as you.

I would prefer him to be what he markets himself as —a market forecaster— instead of intellectual soothsayer or pseudo-religous/philosophical guru or something.

If he were to quit EWI and do the other thing maybe I could see it differently.

I do want you to know that I respect your admiration for his intellectual work though. I would've responded sooner but was away on business.

min

>>The real problem with a smart, confident, excellent writer like Prechter (and probably Greenspan during the same time span) is that he sounds like he knows what he is talking about. Posted by Bird<<

You speak soothe sir! And this is why I seem to get the urge to point things out.

While those of us that have been around the block know exactly how seriously to take this guy's thinking, there are always a fresh batch of newbys coming along for a potential slaughter.

They deserve to hear from the elephant-memoried battle-scarred doers and not just the dilettente spectators enamored with his writing style that never actually put his theories to the test of practical use.

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