Retail Sales Projection

Retail sales declined 1.5% in Sept. This report from Zerohedge shows how the Fed is trying to spin this as a 4% growth projection! Fed's comment:

Total retail sales slipped down 1.5 percent (nonannualized) in September, due in large part to an 11.8 percent drop in auto sales as the CARS incentives rolled-off. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.5 percent during the month. ... Over the past 3-months, the “core” series is trending at an annualized rate of 4.0 percent, a tentative sign that consumption may be starting to firm.

There is some additional good news in these results. Same store sales rose 0.6%, better than the expected decline of 1.1%. Now, September was an unusually warm month which helps retail, but October has started off as a record cold month with surprising snow coverage. By mid-month we had set 4500 new records for cold. This should hurt October sales if it continues. We shouldn't be overly stressed by a poor October report given that the sales may move forward into November. 

Moody's looked at same store sales and reached a more pessimistic conclusion:

We continue to feel that Holiday 2009 revenues will be modestly down, and profits will be up, from 2008s, with any surprises most likely to occur on the downside. There do not appear to be any macroeconomic forces at work that would lead us to conclude that the consumer will be better positioned to spend during the balance of 2009 than he/she was during the similar period of 2008.

My take is that we should be cautious with year over year comparisons. Last Fall was had terrible retail sales due to the economic climate and fear of a financial meltdown. Some normalization is to be expected. Reuters quotes some retail experts as projecting flat holiday sales year over year, which is not good news. Rather, I expect some growth, especially since the big guy, Wal-Mart, is not part of the same store reported numbers. After all, Wal-Mart is a huge part of retail. 

Also, during the past year the Four FoodGroups of the Apocalypse have done well:

1. Wal-Mart
2. McDonald's
3. Hersheys (cheap chocolate)
4. Hormel (spam)

Comments

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>>Hersheys (cheap chocolate)<<

Also, some of the best. Every year, at Christmas, I dig into chocolate. Their 'Pot of Gold' is as good as you'll find anywhere.

[min]

Yes comradskis

Our standard ov leeveeng ids best in gworld:

Wal-Mart
McDonald's
Hersheys (cheap chocolate)
Hormel (spam)

Eet ees envy ov evrywon

[mannfm11]

Quite interesting. I was reading yesterday that sales tax was down 8% to 10% nationwide. The core is clearly rotten. Also, the economy is dropping a net 200K jobs a week, not much of a recovery. The 250K they claim month to month is a fiction, as weekly jobless claims are up 200K over normal. 530K is worse than the entire year of 2008 save December. Wasn't 2008 supposed to be a year when recession raged for the entire year? I am beginning to believe we have something akin to Pravda, run by Wall Street and the Fed.

[min]

While sales tax rates in California are now over 10% in many counties...

State Government revenues are in deep doo doo and taking the consumer down even faster than would otherwise be the case...

Yeah I guess that's a recovery???

I think I'll tighten up those long stops a bit the "land of milk and honey" crowd is probably still in denial but when they wake up and smell the real world they will fricken freak...