You love him or hate him, but cannot ignore him. Prechter's free week is on - click on the top button in the Promo area to the right. (Remember that I get a possible success fee, so love me or hate me, you can at least get EWI to subsidize this blog! How cool is that?)
In Club EWI Hochberg just commented on how a top should look: rounded or sharp? More rounded than sharp; with spikey, choppy behavior; divergences; and different indexes peaking at different times. This seems to describe the last month, and it might continue before their dreaded P3 (actually the Mother of all P3's) commences. Some good stuff over there too, and it is free (and the FTC desperately wants me to tell you that if you click over to Club EWI via the link on the right or this link or the one above, I might get a small success fee! Isn't it great how the FTC protects you?)
This Free Week could run through the heart of the start of the P3 beast, so if you were ever curious how helpful or not the EWI stuff is, give it a shot.
BTW Neely is getting firmer in his wave structure, a neutral triangle, but a very unusual one (!?). He thinks we either break below the prior SP lows of Sp1012 (Dec S&P) or 1019 (cash) and fall hard; or bounce off these levels into one last and glorious fling higher, putting the bears back into hibernation for winter and emboldening more bubble behavior all around.
Tony C thinks tomorrow may tell. The bounce over the last two days was pretty close to a 50% retrace (SP1101 down to 1029 and back to 1061 is a 32 pt retrace from a 72 pt drop). Maybe we do a morning jink up to 1065 to hit the level spot on; but if we fall at the open and breach the 1019 level then all three of these pundits will be confirmed in their bearish views.
Okay, I've had trouble with math my whole life so this whole fibonaci number thing is weird to me. I subscribe to Precther and I am pissed when he offers free weeks because it's like I'm subsidizing all you losers who are too stupid to pony up. All I can say is this crash is REAL it is happening and it is NOW. I have been short since August when Prechter correctly predicted the end of the bull and I will be in the black very soon and then, when the s--t hits the fan, I'll have so much profit that the measly subscription fee will be irrlevenant. Anyway, I don't have to know why 55 or 89 are fibonacci numbers and I don't care. All I know is THE S__T WORKS.
I am eager for the crash and look forward to sailing smoothly through the "crest of the storm" as the big man put it.
Trader Frank
Posted by: Frank C | Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 05:28 PM
Figure 5.7 from At The Crest looks like the most likely scenario.
da bear
Posted by: da bear | Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 06:27 PM
Neely is firming up? How so? Sounds like his "primary call" is we go up, unless we go down and his alternate count is we go down unless we go up. It's a triangle, but maybe not.....
worthless advice! telling me to be ready to go either way? Really, please tell me why I would pay for that advice. My ten year old gives better advice.
Posted by: Newbietrader | Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 06:30 PM
Newbietrader,
Without a price to provide you with a way to understand the market's "decision", you might have a point. What Neely is saying is that below a certain price, pattern 1 is in effect, above it pattern 2. That's actually not such an uncommon way of making decisions in technical analysis. Why do you think there are many instances where a move accelerates once a certain level of support or resistance is surpassed? And, yes, the market always retains the right to whipsaw traders (today's move above the morning high followed by a fairly significant dump was a great example), but in my experience, whipsaws are less common in actuality than they are feared in the abstract.
Posted by: DG | Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 06:38 PM
DG,
I understand technical analysis, support/resistance prices etc etc
What I'm saying is there is no reason to pay him for that advice. there are TONS of free sites out there, for one.
And second his adive of "up unless down is a no shit sherlock!" statement that my ten year old already knows about the market. Kinda like paying someone big bucks for the advice of "buy low, sell high"
Posted by: Newbietrader | Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 07:42 PM
sorry about the bad spelling in previous post. don't know how that happened. it previewed correctly
Posted by: Newbietrader | Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 07:44 PM
Hey guys, heres my count for p3 for anyone whos interested in a little bit of an alternative view: http://tewp.blogspot.com/
Posted by: Pat | Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 08:13 PM
Newbietrader,
OK, so in this particular instance, Neely might not have anything special to say, but that's not necessarily his fault, it's just the way the market is set up, which is a point of maximum ambiguity.
And he's not simply saying, "up unless down", like you could scalp a few points on either side, his view is that if we cross a specific price barrier to either side, that's the trend and he's got a perspective on how long it will last. That's very different from your characterization of it as something akin to "the market will fluctuate". Well, yeah, but Neely's trying to tell you how far it will fluctuate in either direction.
Posted by: DG | Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 10:20 PM
"I've had trouble with math my whole life. I am pissed when he offers free weeks because it's like I'm subsidizing all you losers who are too stupid to pony up. I have been short since August when Prechter correctly predicted the end of the bull.
Trader Frank
Posted by: Frank C | Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 05:28 PM"
Someone who is stupid in math probably shouldn't be trading but does make an ideal Prechter subscriber.
Anyway, just wanted to thank you for the subsidy Frank.
Posted by: Rubb M.Y. Loins | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 12:58 AM
Pat
"Hey guys, heres my count for p3 for anyone whos interested in a little bit of an alternative view:"
Market analysis??!! What the hell is wrong with you? Can't you see this is blog for flaming people!!! Geez. Coherent, documented forecast??? Where's the anger, man?? The vitriol???
Posted by: elskid | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 02:59 AM
Hey guys, heres my count for p3 for anyone whos interested in a little bit of an alternative view: http://tewp.blogspot.com/
If the Red labels are your primary count, where are the red (iii) and (iv)?
In any case, you need to reconsider both how much your wave-2s, in general, retrace of your wave-1s. While wave-2 can retrace 99% of wave-1, if it does, it should then subdivide and end at a lower high (or low, in a bullish market), which retraces less than 61.8% of wave-1. By placing this restriction on the relationship between waves 1 and 2, you will find yourself making far fewer Impulse wave labels that turn out false.
Secondly, you also need to reconsider the relationship of your wave-Bs to your wave-As, with respect to time. In Flats, Zigzags and Running Triangles, wave-B should take longer than wave-A. In other corrections, wave-B should take at least 38.2% of wave-A.
Thirdly, you need to be mindful of the relationships between degrees. For example, your wave-c of orange wave-2 is longer than your entire orange wave-1. That is impossible, since wave-c is at a lower degree than wave-1. Sometimes you can get away with a lower degree subdivision of an Impulse wave being larger than an entire wave of a higher degree, just because the size relationship of an Impulse wave to a Corrective wave can be quite skewed toward the Impulse wave, but it is illogical that a lower degree Corrective wave be larger than an Impulse wave of a higher degree.
I could probably go on and find other specific errors, but most of them would probably just be other examples of those general categories of errors.
Wave-counting needs to be done in adherence to strict rules or else it just becomes subjective.
Posted by: DG | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 04:25 AM
"Market analysis??!! What the hell is wrong with you? Can't you see this is blog for flaming people!!! Geez. Coherent, documented forecast??? Where's the anger, man?? The vitriol???
Posted by: elskid | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 02:59 AM"
I'm a lover not a fighter.
Rubb M.Y. Loins
Posted by: Rubb M.Y. Loins | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 04:57 AM
DG, I love it when you talk Elliott rules
Rubb M.Y. Loins
Posted by: Rubb M.Y. Loins | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 05:01 AM
DG
Wave-counting needs to be done in adherence to strict rules or else it just becomes subjective
Why do you think your rules are any more valid than anyone elses? Or do you know for sure that the market carries a rule book in it's back pocket?
Posted by: G2 | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 05:05 AM
Why do you think your rules are any more valid than anyone elses? Or do you know for sure that the market carries a rule book in it's back pocket?
Posted by: G2 | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 05:05 AM
The most valid set of rules is the one that requires the fewest count changes, which enables the most consistent trading on the timeframe you are labeling.
Also, backtesting. There are hundreds of examples of actual Impulse waves in market history. One studies the Impulse waves where actual post-pattern behavior confirmed the interpretation. If you are not familiar with the concept of post-pattern behavior as a component of wave count validation, you should be. As Neely says, if the market does not behave as is to be expected after the completion of the pattern you've identified, the pattern was never real to begin with. In the example above, what the person thinks was a wave-1, if it is retraced more than 61.8% at the terminus of wave-2, probably isn't really a wave-1. Trading as if it is will likely lead to losses, so why not modify the count to better integrate the two waves by labeling them "A" and "B"?
Neely estimated that he had watched and analyzed the market for 30,000 hours before writing "Mastering Elliott Wave". If you believe, as I do, that trading is a learned skill, there should be a correlation between hours spent watching the market and the ability to abstract rules from the market. There may be some people who are "natural" traders and I have seen studies that show people with some forms of brain damage are just that (something about their brains being able to completely dissociate emotion from the act of gaining and losing money trading), but for the vast majority of the trading population, the game is a Darwinian struggle in which the best adapted win. The major component of the ability to adapt is the ability to survive and figure out the rules of the game.
Posted by: DG | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 06:01 AM
DG, I love it when you talk Elliott rules
Rubb M.Y. Loins
I love it when you don't talk at all.
Posted by: DG | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 06:01 AM
I am the ideal prechter subscriber but not because I suck at math. I love to make money and be ahead of the herd. I do not understand fibonacci numbers but I do not need to because I pay people who are smarter than me. Henry Ford (the founder of Ford Motor T car) said that he can pay people to tell him things he doesn't know and that is my philosophy. Prechter was a spychology phd and that is good enough for me. Also he is an accomplished drummer and he understands rythm and beat and how numbers divide up. So it is no surprise he saw the Great Crest of the Market back in the 1970s and predicted the BULL and the BEAR. Not just one or other. I am beginning to make serious money after going short in August. I have not turned profit yet but, to say something like Prechter is saying, "The crest of the tide is turning!" And this is a big wave, "the big kauhuna" if you will.
For those interested in fibonaci and prechter, check out EW Therory Newsletter. Here are fibonacci numbers (some may be missing). They can be added, divided, subtracted, etc to make new numbers that predict the crests of the waves of human madness and greed...
3, 5, 13, 23, 55, 89, 144 (this one is 12x12 pretty interesting I think)
These look like ordinary numbers but they are anything but! If you are confused, don't worry. You can read more online or email the staff at EWave Theory International. They are international because they are willing to sell their newsletter around the entire world, which says a lot about their credentials. You could be in France, Africa, Afganistan, or the North Pole and find people who respect EWave Intersaional and PRechter.
I don't care if you insult me but you cannot stand a leg against the Truth.
Posted by: Trader Frank | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 06:24 AM
1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 377 610 987 ... are the fibo numbers, 23 is not!
Posted by: Linda | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 06:37 AM
Trader Frank,
I am all for the Truth, believe me. But there are as many perceptions of the Truth as there are perceivers. There are also many here who do not suck at math, many who have spent years studying the markets. It strikes me as naive to say a phd in psychology is good enough for you.
On what basis do you judge that Prechter is right? It sounds like you have decided that he speaks the Truth because you like his credentials. He may well be right, but neither of us are really in a position to know...based on logic, credentials, common sense, what have you.
As has been said, prediction is very hard, especially about the future.
The markets do express harmony, in complex, often beautiful ways. This is, perhaps, an aspect of "Truth". But it is very much a nuanced affair.
I don't think things are arranged such that rational perception alone is sufficient. God knows many a well back-tested rule has fallen by the wayside. In chess, a computer can challenge a master. This hasn't so clearly been proven in the markets.
When it comes to Truth with capital letters, I tend to think that we can know it only with the help of a higher faculty of perception, innate in human beings, but widely neglected.
Posted by: Bird | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 07:03 AM
The most valid set of rules is the one that requires the fewest count changes, which enables the most consistent trading on the timeframe you are labeling
Surely it's the set of rules that maximises trading returns? Following the Neely method since March has resulted in an overall net loss during one of the biggest bull runs in history.
Posted by: G2 | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 07:08 AM
I see the Dow has jumped today. If you got short in August like me, don't worry just add to your short position if you can or buy puts if you can. I went short in August when Prechter called the end of the bull correction and I am glad I did. I may be just a little underwater now but I am poised like a coiled spring when this baby breaks. I am happy actually when I see the markets higher because "what comes up must come down." I do not have funds to add to my position but I am sitting pretty for GRAND CYCLE III. The Big One. It could be today, it could be tomorrow but you will be sorry if you forget what Prechter has taught us and you are long when this baby breaks.
Good luck to bulls and bears but, sorry bulls, you are about to get "bear baited"!!! Almsot a perfect fibonacci 88 days since I went short so, hey, nature works in mysterious ways.
Frank C
Posted by: Trader Frank | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 07:36 AM
Dow is up EXACTLY fibonaci 144 points. This is not just a fibonaci but what mathaticians call a "perfect square" because if you make a square with each side twelve feet the square is 144. This is pretty rare (and double rare because of fibonaci rabbit multiplying problem number = 144) so it may be the top.
I am looking forward to my update from EWave Theory to see if this is it. I can be patient but more money right now would be nice.
Does anyone know if there is a time window for the GRAND CYCLE? I can not find what the Prechter Theory paper said about two months ago but I think they are looking for the crash in November??? Frank C
Posted by: Trader Frank | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 07:39 AM
Ok Trader Frank, I'm beginning to understand. It's been 35 days since I last posted, another exact fib number!, so I'm a little slow on the uptick.
Posted by: Bird | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 07:41 AM
There is a very cool site called Geroge Ure Urban Survival and he points out that web bot have found another reason for emergencies starting in end of OCtober. I do not know if they follow Elliott Theorists but it is interesting that ALL these things are lining up now. It is like the final pieces of the jigsaw puzzle (but the jigsaw puzzle picture is not a good one!)
Will the US bomb Iran? Are we going to be terrorists? Is unemployment about to skyrocket? No one knows WHAT will happen but the picture points to web bot noticing catastrophe NOW. I do not want bad things to happen but I am not going to be a sheep to the slaughter and let my money go away from it by being long. Prechter warned of this years ago before I read his Theory book and became interested in fibonaci and cycles and even knew what a put is. (A way to make money when market goes DOWN)
I think it is time to "fastern your seat belt" and "ride the crash of the GREAT CREST III." If you have the right surfboard it will be fun
FrankC
Posted by: Trader Frank | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 07:43 AM
Surely it's the set of rules that maximises trading returns? Following the Neely method since March has resulted in an overall net loss during one of the biggest bull runs in history.
If a wave count is working and doesn't need to be changed, trades will naturally flow from that framework. One of the problems with talking about results maximization is that there is always someone who's got higher returns and just trades by the seat of his pants, so it's impossible to find a common basis for comparison between different sets of rules and traders who don't use rules, but get extremely lucky.
Neely's use of his own method has resulted in a loss. I am up quite nicely, using the same methods because of the variation in our respective risk tolerances, in my opinion. I have taken long trades that have worked, where he hasn't. I have also been using a shorter time-frame than he has used to make trading decisions. In a very choppy market, that has made a difference, since I have not waited as long for confirmation of an entry as he has. One of my complaints about Neely is that he seems to use subjective probability weightings when deciding whether or not to enter a trade that gets triggered by his rules, yet runs counter to his wave count's less immediate implications. There is a fine line between avoiding overtrading and really missing an opportunity. Neely has unfortunately erred on the side of missing an opportunity. If he had been long since early April, which he should have been, and been stopped out along the way, which would have happened, and then shorted when his short rules triggered and then get long again when market action dictated, I'm sure he would have a positive track record in the period since March. The rules underlying that style of trading are built into NeoWave. The track record wouldn't be as positive as someone who just bought and held, of course. But, don't forget that Neely did go long on March 9th, so it's not as if he missed the bottom. He just didn't re-enter when price conditions warranted.
This issue has been a running theme on my Neely subscriber blog. The solution, in my opinion, is not to abandon the methods, it's to abandon the application of subjective probabilities to trade set-ups that go against the grain of one's wave count. So, it's more of a process issue than an analytical issue. It only becomes an analytical issue when the wave count "breaks" due to market movements that invalidate the hypothesis.
Posted by: DG | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 07:45 AM
check this out beautiful! I somehow doubt the ancent greeks would be bulls today...
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://sacrednumber.squarespace.com/storage/ParthenonGoldenRatio.png&imgrefurl=http://sacrednumber.squarespace.com/design-of-the-parthenon/&usg=__u9HwFuLl0DlGtrknjMyvYV2O6dI=&h=300&w=485&sz=244&hl=en&start=2&um=1&tbnid=qNKOfFM5gWz1-M:&tbnh=80&tbnw=129&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dgolden%2Bmean%26hl%3Den%26rls%3Dcom.microsoft:en-us%26sa%3DX%26um%3D1">http://sacrednumber.squarespace.com/storage/ParthenonGoldenRatio.png&imgrefurl=http://sacrednumber.squarespace.com/design-of-the-parthenon/&usg=__u9HwFuLl0DlGtrknjMyvYV2O6dI=&h=300&w=485&sz=244&hl=en&start=2&um=1&tbnid=qNKOfFM5gWz1-M:&tbnh=80&tbnw=129&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dgolden%2Bmean%26hl%3Den%26rls%3Dcom.microsoft:en-us%26sa%3DX%26um%3D1">http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://sacrednumber.squarespace.com/storage/ParthenonGoldenRatio.png&imgrefurl=http://sacrednumber.squarespace.com/design-of-the-parthenon/&usg=__u9HwFuLl0DlGtrknjMyvYV2O6dI=&h=300&w=485&sz=244&hl=en&start=2&um=1&tbnid=qNKOfFM5gWz1-M:&tbnh=80&tbnw=129&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dgolden%2Bmean%26hl%3Den%26rls%3Dcom.microsoft:en-us%26sa%3DX%26um%3D1
Posted by: Trader Frank | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 07:49 AM
sorry bad link here is it
http://images.google.com/images?hl=en&rls=com.microsoft:en-us&q=fibonaci&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wi
Posted by: Trader Frank | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 07:50 AM
Sorry-----yelnick called teh "P3 beast" I have been calling the GREAT CREST III, but they are the same thing even if I am not using the official name. Basically we are looking into the belly of the beast. Third waves whatever you call them are big kahunas and they take down major bull markets like butters with knives right through 'em. If you are new to Elliot when you see a 3 or THREE or III it is time to LOOK OUT! You do not mess with a three
Posted by: Trader Frank | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 07:53 AM
144 did not hold. 233 is next fibonaci stop but I do not think we will get there. It is last chance saloon for anyone to get short. Puts will get more expensive not cheaper so it is time to get on board. Shorting will be outlawed so it is last chance to get short. All this is familiar to readers of Elliott but if there is ANYBODY who is not short you have been warned. This is NOT trading advice and authority to sell/buy I am just sharing my own persanal opinion and do not care if you disagree. There is risk in all markets so do your homework and trade like you really need the money and if you lose it you will stilly be okay.
Posted by: Trader Frank | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 07:56 AM
Trader Frank,
How can anyone that bought puts back in early August with the SPX at 1000 on Prechter's initial shorting recommendation have made any money?
The FACT of the matter is that if you had bought August, September, or October puts you would have LOST ALL OF YOUR MONEY!!! Furthermore, anyone holding November puts has seen tremendous premium decay and anyone that has been short futures contracts from SPX 1000 has had to "roll-out" from Sept to Dec and lost evey more money.
Keep drinking the "Kool-Aid"
:)
Posted by: Michael | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 08:12 AM
Trader Frank,
"There is a very cool site called Geroge Ure Urban Survival "...... I was watching for Oct 25 per Ure and High. Nothing. What are we going to do if nothing catastrophic happens.
Posted by: elskid | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 08:22 AM
I signed up, but I can't figure out what I got. Seem like one giant commercial.
Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 08:27 AM
First of all, accepting losses is the big important thing about trading. Anybody who knows anything will tell you that. I think like it as "tuition" in the school of trading. I will not make money on EVERY trade. Second of all, I have been short since August because Prechter would rather be early than late and wrong. So even if I have taken small losses they are PAPER LOSSES! I am still short! Believe me, when the s--t hits the fan you will rather be short BEFORE the sh-t went down. It will be too late to buy puts or go short. Prechter has revealed that shorting might be made illegal. So guess what? It will be TOO LATE. I have lost money on puts but I bought some that will not expire until the end of November so I am still safe. I do not check their prices every minute every second because that does not matter. I think LONG TERM. It is one of the ways I am grateful for the Elliott Theroy prospective. Precther made predictions in the 1970s. Patience is just part of the game.
George Ure did not say that the calamity will happen at the end of October. It is merely a focus point. In other words, it might be in a window days, months, or even years. THe point is that the end of OCtober is very, very significant and we do not know why yet. Just another reason to get short and hold onto those shorts do not be scared by idiot Buffet or idiot Tim Geinter telling you "Bull! Bull! Bull!"
The bear is coming and EWT and fibonacci numbers will once again prove why they are right and people herd like cows, sheep, to slaughtering.
Frank
Posted by: Trader Frank | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 08:41 AM
"I have lost money on puts but I bought some that will not expire until the end of November so I am still safe."
Frank, please tell us all what PUT OPTIONS that you currently own that do not expire "until the end of November".
I have been trading the markets since 1981 and have never heard of such an option.
Posted by: Michael | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 09:10 AM
Man, I wish I was still alive. I don't know who are the bigger suckers, those who believe in P3 or those who believe "Trader Frank" is real. At least the P3 count has some level of plausibility, whatever Prechter's (a great student of mine, by the way. Probably more a student of me than a student of Elliott, in the big picture) past record.
Posted by: P.T. Barnum | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 09:14 AM
PT, I was just trying to be "nice".
But I think that it's obvious that this website has lost a lot of objectivity and credibility with it's constant promotion of EWI and total BS posts like that from "Trader Frank" who is clearly busted for lying about options that don't even exist.
Posted by: Michael | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 09:19 AM
28 years of trading career and not a bone of humility.
have the markets given you so much or have they taken away so much?
Posted by: vipul garg | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 09:22 AM
I am not fake. I did not mean end of November literaly but third week of November. It is closer to end than beginning so CHILL OUT. 1 + 1 = 2 2 + 1 =3
Keep going and the secret of the universe revealed.
PT Barnum is circus person who died according to wikipedia. I don't get it? WHO is the fake?!
Posted by: Trader Frank | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 09:25 AM
If you want my last name email me and I will provide plus photos and bio. I am happy if you think I am fake because it shows how much you know!
Posted by: Trader Frank | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 09:26 AM
"28 years of trading career and not a bone of humility.
have the markets given you so much or have they taken away so much?"
The markets have taught me that if you are not HONEST with yourself ( or others in life ) and you are not able to correctly identify the TREND you will simply live in a grand state of DENIAL and never be able to operate or trade in a successful manner.
Posted by: Michael | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 09:51 AM
What seems fake, Frank, is some of your pronouncements and tone. So I'm going long that you are pulling our leg. You think long term, huh? You call November puts long term?
I am intrigued by the possibility that idiocy in trading blogs is intentional and part of some game for profit that I don't yet understand. But it also raises the question, not generally appreciated, that a trading approach might work best in the dark, when some guy privately trades his discovery, but not so well when the lights are turned on. The lights are turned on Prechter and Neely all the time. Prechter has paid the price for this, from 1987 til now. It probably bodes well for him that many now think he is a fool.
Posted by: Bird | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 10:01 AM
Michael,
i am sure you have had an illustrious trading career so far and will continue to have so in future ,being on the right side of the Trend most of the time.
may be you can disparage less and share more than mere factual information, it ll be really welcomed, atleast be me.
Posted by: vipul garg | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 10:10 AM
Yelnik -
It appears to me that the dollar just keeps holding, at least it is today into this AM rally. These stock markets have to be pretty close now to start down - a few days maybe. I am starting to think it is more important that the dollar just hold up and does not necessarily need to break its trend (that I think is just under 77).
Prechter's concept of the P3 coming, I doubt it. But that the March low isn't going to hold - that I can buy. So - big correction yes - "end of the world" - no
In any event (to me) this 3600+ point rally in the Dow is likely to give back about 1800 to 2200 points.
I may be getting an itchy trigger finger and that may be impacting my judgement but I am thinking hard about diamond puts, out of the money for later than December expiration early next week. Joe
Posted by: joe | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 10:20 AM
may be you can disparage less and share more than mere factual information, it ll be really welcomed, atleast be me.
I agree. It's "Free Week", so come on and give us just one forecast that we can then check against the market, to see if you've got anything worth saying that hasn't already been said by someone else.
Posted by: DG | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 10:25 AM
I think Trader Frank is one of those natural traders that's also an idiot, that my hero DG pointed out.
"There may be some people who are "natural" traders and I have seen studies that show people with some forms of brain damage are just that
Posted by: DG | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 06:01 AM"
I love it when DG gets all intellectual like that. He's figured out Trader Frank without even trying too hard and he also has 30,000 hours worth of rules. That's kind of hard to beat. Who needs Prechter?
So all of you that want to get rich should listen to DG and Trader Frank, they are gifted savants on opposite sides of the spectrum, we've got it all right here on this little blog. I love it.
Posted by: Rubb M.Y. Loins | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 10:35 AM
Im back and ready to rumbel
i think gold is valuable but apparently prechtr does not so he po poos it allthe way to 1100!
Gold is telling us the bull is back
i do not think 144 is a fib number sorry to breakit toyoufrank the trader
Posted by: Cary Lloyd | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 10:50 AM
I love it when DG gets all intellectual like that.
That's three things you love about me and zero I love about you.
He's figured out Trader Frank without even trying too hard and he also has 30,000 hours worth of rules.
Just trying to contribute something positive to the blog, unlike yourself, whose main contribution seems to be an unfunny sort of cyberstalking. People want to listen, fine, they don't, that's fine, too. Yelnick and others have let me know my posts are worthwhile. You don't think so, fine. I'll take their opinion over yours any day.
Posted by: DG | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 10:52 AM
"Yelnick and others have let me know my posts are worthwhile. You don't think so, fine. I'll take their opinion over yours any day.
Posted by: DG | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 10:52 AM"
I don't know what you are talking about, I have said 3 things I love about you. I also gave you credit for figuring out Trader Frank yet you still push me away. How is that cyberstalking? I like you better when you are logical.
Posted by: Rubb M.Y. Loins | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 10:59 AM
Rubb M.Y. Loins and Michael are the same person.
Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 11:12 AM
Power Shares just announced that they cannot longer issue new shares of UUP. It jump about 30 cents.
Posted by: elskid | Thursday, November 05, 2009 at 11:20 AM