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« Prechter Goes All In (Short) | Main | Yves the Bond Bull »

Monday, November 23, 2009


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Roger D.

If people continue to pay off debt at record levels and banks hoard cash, it may be a while before the unemployment rate tops out.

One intersting tidbit is the M1 Multiplier that has collapsed to a record low of .831 in the latest period. During the 1930's this rate dropped to 3.00 but now we mirror a primitive banking system where people distrust banks and would rather transact using cash!

One explanation for the record low rate in the multiplier is that debts and banks defaulted in the 1930's, where today no such thing has been allowed to take place.

Question is how low can it go? The bear flag completed and breaking down suggests a move to .500 which would signal a full scale crisis I would think.

A level approaching zero and hello Iceland,good-bye America and Annie get your gun. Not pleasent thoughts at all.

Cary Lloyd

Don W--

What a great anecdote about Bob P's Barrons baloney! Any chance you could post it here? Or choice excerpts. I think the guy really is a sort of PT Barnum but maybe a self-deluded one. Can't pinpoint what mannerisms come off as lying but he really does remind me of that John Edwards "Crossing OVer" psychic guy when he's interviewed.

There are all kinds of people who draw crowds, sometimes the wackier and sleazier the more popular they are. Here in this forum there are otherwise reasonably intelligent people who talk about Prechter's intellectual powers and writing skills and call him "the master." Unbelievable how pathetic and gullible our species is. Some combination of funny and sad I think!


Good post Yelnik.


On an optimistic note, if we could get divided government (the only proven tool to control government spending) in 2010 that can lay the groundwork for the triumphant return of president nobody. Historical returns for a Republican congress and a Democrat President have been quite good.


Feels like another short squeeze coming!

Hank Wernicki

:- )

Happy Thanksgiving all


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