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« How The Great Recession Will Transform America | Main | Market Pop »

Monday, November 16, 2009


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The dollar will crash into oblivion sending the S&P to the moon. Everyone except a few bears will live happily ever after since the majority always wins in the markets.


When the dollar crashes, the S&P will crash with it. I advise you to go to Denninger's site and read the pertinent piece and the commentary in The Ticker Forum.

Roger D.

If Neely is right that yields will go to new lows, today was the top. Whatever drama is to be played out in the next few days will not matter if the market has exhausted itself. Plus everybody thinks we will hit 1121 in another wave up. The old adage nobody rings a bell is perfect here.

Merideth Whitney must be looking at the data because she has told the incovenient truth. Maybe the light went on and the music stopped around 3:00 today.

I personally thought Bernanke's speech was a bears dream and a wet one at that.




trader, which part?


I was being sarcastic.

Rodger, it’s quite possible we hit 1121 it’s just a sneeze away.


are you guys still trying to short a market that is impulsing higher? remember there is no top tick trophy

where is the .618?

Mike McQuaid

NDX has gone past 62% of the '07 high to '08 low. The trend is up in this powerful rally.

Cary Lloyd

Yes, the trend is up. The NDX has gone beyond 62% of drop. We are looking at smooth sailing until SPX 1800. Perhaps one or two 5% corrections along the way. The bears will be paying the bankers' salaries for the next few years. Don't try to get cute with a bull.

This ain't Pamplona.

Here's another valiant attempt at a Wave count:

There was no chance of that "failed 5th" that I imagined last time. Instead, I have re-labelled wave one,and found it to be about 32 SPX points. And about 32 points for wave-5 would take it to ... about SPX-1121. Funny how that works, Yelnick. I believe it was your forecast a few days ago, that and about Dow-11,500. You may be spot on.



The best I can figure, this latest push higher places us close to or at (5).i.5.III - what this means is that (I'm suggesting) we're going to see another rising W carved out at minute scale over the next 2 months. (I'm basing this on the form of the last two corrective moves down which I now count as iv.3.III and iv.III respectively - although these were both sizeable I don't think they had the breath and depth necessary to class them as intermediate scale events and to some degree this is evidenced in the EMAs.)



You probably spotted the deliberate error....what I meant to post was iv.3.III and 4.III as the last corrective counts.


The US dollar appears as an ending diagonal triangle from the November 2 highs. I see a one down until the 11th. A wave 2 up and a 3rd down (3rd smaller than the 1) so if we get a small wave 5 down that is smaller than the wave 3 and a reversal you can count the wave from November 2 complete.

For me I need 5 waves up and 3 waves down of at least minute degree to make any decision. I may count waves of smaller degree but I don't consider them to be reliable enough for an investment decision.


Greg: the nonsense about " ... Bernanke's speech was a bears dream and a wet one at that." The guy said NO (!!)bubble and a few of his fed cohords are saying the same thing. Any mention of the $ is pure lip service,its dire straight times : "easy,easy money and the chicks for free :). As that goes on the markets are likely to go up! The piper will have to be paid later and his bill is going up too :))


Just when one seems to have figured it all out...


Nathan, good chart. The count matches the Naz. In the S&P, the STU has a slightly different count. They put all three gaps up in the 3rd wave of each impulse. To make that work in wave 1 they moved the top to Fri Nov6 at Sp1074 with wave 2 happening that same day. If you recall, a huge up/down type of day. It is also interesting that all three Mondays this month have seen the rocket up with a gap, then a pause thru the week. This often indicates an increase in the retail investor making a weekend decision to add tot he ong side, and the smart money fading them during the week (getting out).



An ending diagonal(dollar index) is composed of 5 three wave moves (3-3-3-3-3), so in order for this to be an ending diagonal that commenced on Nov 2nd, we would have just completed wave (i) of said diagonal. We should now be retracing in wave (ii). Remember, in an ending diagonal, wave (iii) should be the longest wave in order to give it the right look. The ending diagonal scenario would fit nicely as a terminal move followed by the mother of all short squeezes.


JAy, Cloud, the DX seems to have been in an ED since last March, and is on its final wave.


Hi Yelnik,

Could you give the subdivisions please, cause I don't see where we could have had the obligatory overlap between waves (iv) and (i) in that instance. Thanks.


JAy, take a look at the DX chart in this post: Dollar May Have Bottomed - Let the Melt-up Begin!


Yelnick, that show's an ending diagonal wave 5 of C that started in Julyish, not an ending diagonal since last March, as you stated above. Maybe that's where the confusion is. Thanks


Jay, yes, me bad. It started in the final wave up from Jul8. And today looks like a wave 2 f followed by a 3. Tomorrow should see a wave 4 downish and a final 5 to a possible top. So Dollar may open up then fade. So we roll into Thurs or Fri to see what is next - a Dollar bottom/Dow top or the reverse


Yelnick, I was referring to the Dollar Index with respect to your above comment:
"JAy, Cloud, the DX seems to have been in an ED since last March, and is on its final wave", wheras your current comment is in reference to the SPX.


JAy, my chart shows that the ED in the DX started on Jul8, the same time the SP and Dow began the 2d zigzag rally up. I commented too fast when I said the ED started in March. Nope, on the 2d wave up of this rally.

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