Yves the Bond Bull

Yves has been on an investment theme that bonds are going up (lower rates, higher value). We have come through a consolidation period which he counts as wave 2, and he thinks the big bold 3 is starting. This should drive rates DOWN towards 2.5%. Most pundits instead expect a rise towards 5%. Gutsy call. He sent me charts to support his thesis.

One of his most telling points is the first chart, which shows how high real yields are - 5.5%, highest since 1990.

Another is the correlation between consumer sentiment and bond yields. Yields seem to have gotten ahead of sentiment, meaning bonds are underpriced relative to sentiment. See the second chart. 

He also ties the drop in yields to the trend in GDP. While in a later post I will discuss what we are in - a V, U, L or W shaped recovery - the YoY moving average of GDP is still downwards and will be so for a while. Normally in a recovery long yields go up due to anticipated inflation and increase demand for debt (long term Treasuries are used to back mortgages, for example), but this is still not a normal environment. The Fed has reaffirmed their intention to continue QE, which is designed to suppress long rates. 

His final point is a continuation of risk aversion of primary bond dealers. In Sept he noted how last year the prime dealers had left their usual short position and gone long on the long bonds, indicating hoarding. Rates fell to very low levels. His final chart shows they remain in an unusual posture. The trend down could continue to normalcy, but hasn't. His conjecture is that we are seeing the New Normal, a persistent change in behavior. The effect of this New Normal Posture should be to drive rates downwards.

Primary dealers rather than banks are holding bonds long. Likely this change is a reaction to the QE policy and huge deficit funding needs, and the still tenuous positions of commercial banks. Among other issues, they have less need for the long bond when they have less demand for mortgages. Worse, it indicates that major institutions continue to be oriented to manage against inflation: he has written how they are immunized against inflation, not deflation. Consequently if rates drop and deflation flares they will be caught short (literally, since they have too few assets to hedge against their bet on higher rates and inflation). His wave 3 in bonds may manifest (once it gets going, in the 3 of the 3rd wave) as a short squeeze against those mismatched institutional positions. They will have to scramble to re-balance.

Comments

[joe]

I agree with this guy.
I manage a pension fund and between September and October I sold all equity positions and moved the monies into 10 year notes.

I calculated fair value on those notes at about a 2.33% yield at the rate we are deflating and also I do believe that if there is a significant equity sell-off the yield could go below that 2 % low we saw in the last sell-off. This is why Gross is being so aggressive in buying those longer term notes.

Joe

[graspthemarket]

I talk about how ironic it is that we are already calling this a "recovery." I also mention the "shape of the recovery" http://www.graspthemarket.com/articles/20091115b.php

I agree with the analysis above, as well. If we have a sell-off it is hard to say what bonds will do. Last year, people went for a flight to safety. I have a suspicion that they will do the same as well. However, the Fed is buying a tremendous number of bonds. How long can that last?

[twitter.com/DrBubb]

The TLT chart looks right for an upside move:
http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/7662/zzzz.gif

We could be at a similar point to just before last year's stock crash.

+ + +
"in a later post I will discuss what we are in - a V, U, L or W shaped recovery"
How about a y-shaped non-recovery? That's where the second fall is deeper than the first, where it falls "off a cliff" and stays down.

[Steiner]

Plese enlighten me who is Yves?

[yelnick]

Steiner, Yves is with Blackmount Capital and has done a series of guestblogs. If you go to the search bar down the right column, put in Yves and click on search yelnick (not search the web) you will be able to survey his work. What I respect the most about him is his willingness to stake out a controversial opinion based on evidence.

[Yves of BlackMONT Capital, LLC]

It's BlackMONT! BlackMONT, for god sakes! Not Blackmount!

http://www.blackmont.com/lamoureux/

How many exhaustive, scintillating pieces of content do I have to provide to this site FOR FREE in order for you to get my firm's name right??!!!! I ask for nothing --NOTHING-- but proper spelling. Please... get it right!!!!

http://www.blackmont.com/lamoureux/

[Guy pretending to be Yves of BlackMONT Capital, LLC]

Also, in the interest of full disclosure, I am not actually Yves but someone impersonating Yves in the interest of pure comedy. I suspect the real Yves would never berate Yelnick for a misspelling

[joe]

I understand that auction today was over subscribed something like 4 to 1. So apparently - there is no lack of demand for our notes.
Joe

[yelnick]

Mon deux!

[yelnick]

Ah, he would for that mistake!!

[graspthemarket]

WOW. The auction was over subscribed by 4 to 1. The demand is there, I'll give you that. But who's buying them? Is there a place to find that break down? For example, is it all the fed or is it other countries? If anyone knows that information, I would appreciate that. Thanks.

[yves]

I am glad to see that Yelnick is enjoying himself with bloggers as well.
Sometimes these posts get a bit on the heavy side.
I know that having to write extensively one often makes typos.Its great to read over but really we are time constrained.People should appreciate that and simply enjoy the content.

Yves of Blackmont Capital LLC what can I say .A big thanks for the thumbs up.It really made me smile.Here is a quick story for you.
I was featured last summer in the prestigious Institutional Investor Magazine and realised when I got the print edition that in the picture I was , the name that appeared was Blackstone Capital.There I was working for this new firm.Great another merger !
Cheers
Yves

[Diamond Jim]

The rise in the price of gold and the worldwide stampede into treasuries paying next to nothing are different aspects of the same phenomenon. There is a general flight to security. The issue is what is causing it. The smart money could have finally realized the emperor has on no clothes or it could just be an emotional reaction to the insecurity and constant upheavals in the international financial system. Whether the root cause is psychological or fundamental, the effects of a panic could be the same. We are witnessing an almost unprecedented vote of no confidence in the conventional business model. It is only a matter of time before this is reflected in all financial areas, including the stockmarket.

[Peter Schaps]

When the equity selloff comes more than most think at this time will be moving into precious metals investment vehicles just to hold onto what they have left, in this supposedly sustainable politically correct world the us debt load is not sustainable. if i were a much younger man and still in the securities business, i would be taking heed of the black storm clouds approaching in world financial markets and be moving my clients into something that has been a store of wealth and prosperity for thousands of years.

[Cayro]

Blackmount or blackmout : it does not really matter.
Lamoureux is much prettier.It means " te one that is in love".
"Mon deux",someone else wrote.That means nothing.He probably meant : "Mon dieu"
"My God".