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« Equities and Bonds Fade the Fed - Is Santa Staying Home? | Main | The Fed Slipped Up Big Time: Deflation Coming »

Thursday, December 17, 2009

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Sean

Yelnick,

"Tony Caldero has a target around Sp1160 ... completion of the second one."

Does Tony think SPX 1160 is the generation top like SPX 1570? I just not sure what is implied as "second one".

Does Tony has a long term bottom target of SPX? Thanks!

elskid

This is a great article. Do you think gold will also resume its uptrend? When or what circumstances will lead to the decoupling of gold / equities / dollar?

Virginia Jim

Appears to me the Euro has one more wave down to the lower trend channel to complete it's first larger wave down. Hence, the equity indices should have another leg down before a significant bounce or resumption of the 'thrust' out of the expanding triangle. I prefer to believe the supposed 'thrust' has truncated at yesterday's high.

http://www.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Jim/folders/Jing/media/6f2dec93-f5cd-4b55-a314-7aa8f3f7f706

Jim

joe

It appears something is going to come out of Copenhagen about the time our markets open tomorrow - and its going to cost us about 100 billion dollars.

I think there is some kind of deal made.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091218/ts_nm/us_climate_copenhagen

Wave Rust

USD might get back to 77.700+ to cover the gap today.
that will probably close the es gap, and then bulls will have their pockets full for the next big move up.
no escape for the bears till summer 2010.

it was a 4, it is a 4, but not 4 long.

wave rust

Roger D.

Yelnick,

The pattern should be counted as A=1,a=2,b=3,c=4,d=5,with the the 5th wave extensions evident. B is wave 1 down and then a corrective wave up a,b,and c;which looks to be by the untrained eye a failed 5th,but it is not.

Go get a copy of Magee and edwards and look at the chart on page 175. I believe it is air research's broadening top. The chart will clear up a lot of confusion about this pattern.

Next is a large C down or 3, should get a old fashioned panic decline, historic in nature.


Roger

jeff

Pretty much agree with "WaveRust"...

USD range 78-74 between now and mid-February 2010.

MHD

Bonds up, dollar up,gold up, oil up....what the f@#k?

joe

"Given the larger wave pattern, which has five waves down from the DX89.42 level on Mar6, the rebound wave can and should go to higher levels - above DX90."

I agree - and should be realized within the Q1 timeframe.

Joe

joe

On the S&P - it should drop for several more days - below 1080 - something of a bounce but below 1100 (where it is currently) and that should set up the larger wave down. 1100 would become resistance if the drop continues -

Roger - do we have about the same take?

Joe

Brian

Dollar topped 78 today. (Friday)

Dave

Nice little pullback in the dollar to get in just in time for the 5th of 3 in this first wave up from the bottom in the dollar (USA! USA! USA!). I have Gold in a third wave down that will smash through 1000 imminently as hedge funds unwind ahead of the second week in January - Do you smell the fear in those freshly opened foreign gold trading exchanges yet? Stocks are a distraction - they are lagging the move, but they'll catch up in spectacular fashion - try watching emerging markets; more exciting. Ever heard of a frontier market? Don't worry, you didn't miss anything, except a massive sell opportunity. The action is in the dollar index right now - and that's what's determining the larger trends across all asset classes as we finish year end positioning. Seriously, take a step back. Don't be so U.S. centric. We're just getting started - open a few extra screens and watch the fireworks!

Roger D.

"On the S&P - it should drop for several more days - below 1080 - something of a bounce but below 1100 (where it is currently) and that should set up the larger wave down. 1100 would become resistance if the drop continues -

Roger - do we have about the same take?"

Joe

Hello Joe,

yes exactly, that larger drop should be a doosey.


Roger

Mike McQuaid

SPX has support at 1029 from Nov 2. The continuation pattern from Nov 16 is sideways in form. Today marks 34 days from Nov 2 suggesting the index had fib opportunities to turn down and didn't. SPX volume was inconclusive today yet the NDX, COMP, Dow 30 and DJ Transport Index all showed buoyant action and elevated volume. The SPX trend from the March reversal is intact.

Anon

Seems highly likely we will tag 1075 early next week if not first thing Monday. That should complete a first wave.

Roger D.

For the bearsish case the Dow futures count best.

Roger

http://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/50556c8f-3764-46d2-877b-07e9e0a53591

Roger D.

Yelnick,

This is the patter I am talking about.

Roger

http://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/2d8f5195-bd6f-4ecd-afcf-7bc84d84a583

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