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« The Stimulus Has Stalled | Main | Predictions 2010 »

Thursday, December 31, 2009


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I see you're not resting on your posting laurels and are posting to the bitter end of 2009. Great recap to end the year!

Mr. Panic

Blue moon lunar eclipse today followed by an annular solar eclipse on January 15,2010 which officialy opens up another Puetz crash window. This lunar eclipse also might activate the destructive,very rare triple total solar eclipse of past July(also featuring the greatest duration of the 21stcentury at 7+minutes---January's annular eclipse is 11+minutes), of the Saros series which has repeated a destructive 18year cycle going back to Jan 1721 (which preceded the latter collapse phase of the South Sea bubble). Coincidentally, I have read (but haven't confirmed) that the last blue moon lunar eclipse occurred in 1991 (as July's Saros series last did also)in the midst of the last real estate crisis. (Fred Folvary has noted 18year real estate boom bust cycles in his work).

McClellan Oscillator dropped below the 0line today after reaching its highest levels of the last few months usually the indication of the onset of stock market decline. Since late August, the averages have been forming a 3peaks and a domed house pattern and with today's action it appears the domed house has completed. Wave C on the EWI chart would be the final spike high of the dome or pts 23-27 on the 3peaks and a domed house pattern (see Alphahorn's blog during the past month for an elaboration of this pattern) The May through August 1987 stock charts feature an almost identical although not as pronounced pattern.

Roger D.

Mr Panic I agree completely.

There's nothing bullish about this chart. FRT is a major REIT and is about to go through it's next phase of deleverging.

There are so many crash charts out there right now it's damn scary.

IMHO the LT trend has resumed and it's going to be a real killer.


Glenn Loser Neely

Hi I am Glenn Loser Neely...

This is my year!!! 2010... I will be wrong again and again!!

Please follow my NEO garbage at.

I am a loser...



One note on the Bradley Siderograph, as Manfred Zimmel has noted the Bradley has not had a very good correlation with the US equity market as of late. In fact, for the past 3 quarters the Bradley has had a fairly strong correlation with Crude Oil and the USD - - - rather than the stockmarket.

For people unfamiliar with the Bradley Siderograph, I would suggest that the chart above that Yelnick posted is not as it seems and that the Bears do not "own the market" after the Month of March. That is a most highly misreprentative view of the Bradley.

The Bradley predicts turning points ONLY and not the polarity . . . meaning a high in the chart may also be a low, and vice-versa.

The first significant Bradley date is March 1st. After that, there are three minor turning point dates in June, one in early July, and another major turning point date shows its face on August 10th.


The triangle morphs from an expanding one (with wider gaps as it continues) to an ascending one with a flat bottom and an ascending set of tops. This count says the top is not in, and neither is the final wave C.

Correct. A healthy nu yr to u.

Wave Rust

For SPX-
the second worst case, this is a 4th of 5 of 3.
the worst case is that this is a 4 of 5 of C of primary A.

the best case is that this is possible 4th that takes out 1114.76 on Monday and then reverses up. Then the 1's and 2's begin again.

EWI, STU and Neely are doing pretty good counting this dichotomy of indices and commodities. Difficulties are always seen before during and just after a 4th like we just saw for the last 6 to weeks.

The Dow and SPX covered a few gaps on Friday.

BUT, I could be wrong. The subtle high of NDX on 12-14-09 for a 1 was clever. Then look at that 2 that followed wow! Or, was it just a weird 5 and it'a all over for the up for awhile.

Happy New Year

wave rust

Mista B

I'll leave my stock market prediction at saying I don't think the rally has much farther to go. Valuations are pretty high, and it's tough to see bond yields dropping further (especially for companies). I'm not seeing any pickup in activity on the ground, and given the shape the banks are in (credit card, CRE, business, and mortgage lending are still worsening) I don't see how anyone thinks it's going to improve in 2010. That companies and individuals are getting lean and mean is a good thing in the long run. It's absolutely necessary. But in the short run it means the recession is still on, regardless of the GDP number.


The December CI provides a nice view from 5000 feet in their piece "On Allocation". Equities as a % of Household Financial Assets and Bonds as a % of HFA should be enough to send most of us to ground.

But when you look at the pension mess and FED manufactured bond mess, one thing becomes very clear: The gubmint cannot allow equities to have a major decline this year.

Prechter and Dent have concluded that the gubmint cannot support the economy to the extent required to prevent an implosion (debt deleveraging and demographics). But both agree that the gub will pull out all stops in an effort to postpone a major decline.

My question to the board is how can you possibly time the unknown? No one has a clue how long government is willing or able to suspend capitalism. Given enough resources, a simpleton can run any company for a long, long time.



Here is the January CI:

So much for the mountain of cash on the sidelines.

Flat to down seems like a great call for 2010. A good year to sit in the "cash patch" I think.



Great piece by Trim Tabs discussing the source of the rally:

It sure makes sense.


vipul garg

saw exas..
looks good for 3.75 and 4.50..

Kevin Martin

Even with four crossing one, the whole thing can still be an ending diagonal.



I have been following a radio show up where I live called the technical view hosted by Ed Handley (he does elliot wave). One little side note he brought up is that for some reason the years ending in zero since 1900 have been bad years for the market with the worst declines occuring in Q1.

He have the move off the March 2009 lows as P4 of C. With the final 5th wave down to follow.



I listended to his Thursday program on Friday. The takeaway I have is that he does not feel the move of the March low was wave 4. He stated that there were 5 waves down into the March low.



I think the 5 waves down he was referring to was the 3rd of the C. We still don't have wave 1 overlap at the Jan/08 lows on the S&P (we do on the Nasdaq). To my knowledge that is his wave count. That implies a retest of the March 2009 lows for P5.

I don't think he changed to the alternate bullish count. He did say that even if your bullish the levels that we are at now are going to be retraced in the wave 2 down when 1 completes.

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