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« How Far Might the Santa Rally Go? | Main | Mobile Internet May Be the Next Driver of Growth »

Tuesday, December 15, 2009


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These two paragraphs are short in length but powerful in content.

Don't forget about the jobless claims being up last week--that is something that could come into play as we near the critical holiday spending week.

I wrote on one of my daily updates last week addressing the jobless claims oversight by the media. I mention this paragraph because, like you implied above, it seems like only certain "numbers" are getting looked at right now...for example, you mention "sampling error" That is an important fact. Here's what I wrote to support both of your ideas.

Something that was glossed over yesterday, or almost ignored completely, is that jobless claims unexpected jump of 17,000. That number seems important, but it was ignored. Let’s compare this to last Friday’s drop in unemployment. One week ago the “only” story was talked about was that unemployment dropped 0.2% to 10.0%. It seemed like every financial and news channel could not get enough of the number. It was almost as if nothing else in the world mattered. However, yesterday when jobless claims increased more than expected, the analysts tried to explain their way out of the number. According to Reuters, “The rise in claims was blamed on seasonal layoffs in industries such as construction and a rebound in applications that had been held back during the Thanksgiving holiday week.” Excuses don’t belong in business. They belong in the sixth grade when you forget to do your homework. Why weren’t there any excuses to unemployment dropping; there were only good, solid “reasons.” Now, something negative surfaces and it is like, “Oh, well…ummm, Thanksgiving, seasonal layoffs, ummm…”


Virginia Jim

Interesting. And Trimtabs says employment dropped 255K in November when last week's BLS report said only 11K. Many years ago I had to fill out two months of that blasted survey. Didn't know the payroll system or the format and meaning of the report. And hated it. Fortunately, I was able to get a TEMP to do it thereafter. I'm sure it was done well thereafter (not).

Given that so few of the BLS surveys are filed and so many of those filed are filed timely by less than expert or diligent employees, why would anyone find the BLS statistics more than occasionally accurate if then. In contrast, Trimtabs actual tax deposits. Can't fudge cash.

I expect the mess will hit the fan soon enough.


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