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« How Can Retail Be Up And Sales Taxes Down? UPDATED | Main | Bonds on Edge Before FOMC as the Yield Curve Steepens »

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

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TC

Love using the "iStockManager" by Ameritrade via my IPhone.
Gives you everything that you have on your desktop "Quotetracker" platform in the palm of your hand. Real-Time streaming quotes, Level-2, Option trading, News, etc.

http://www.istockmanager.com/

:)

DG

Due to the lower computing capabilities of handheld devices, won't 90% of the software and hardware for the mobile internet sell at lower price points than the desktop internet equivalents? Most of that stuff is the electronic equivalent of a board game. That doesn't even get into all of the ancillary services that went with the desktop internet like consulting and web design.

Seems like a stretch that it will be a big driver of revenue.

yelnick

DG ,this is no longer about product revenue but service revenue.

TC

Bingo!

joe

"Emerging markets will be huge, leafrogging poor landline infrastructure"

Sort of assumes they have the money to buy into it. I don't think they have enough money to feed themselves and that is going to keep getting worse IMO.

DG

Yelnick,

No, I get it that it's razors/razor blades, but I don't see how it can be a big service revenue driver even when what you're selling is essentially the ability to play checkers against your buddy over a mobile phone network for a monthly fee.

yelnick

DG, I will do a post for you that shows how the loss of mfg is more than made up by the value of the design/software/IP in the product and the service revenues. I expect mfg JOBS to drop but mfg OUTPUT to continue to rise in the US, much as agriculture lost huge employment but we kept producing more food. Today the Agriculture Dept has more employees than the agriculture sector.

yelnick

Joe, emerging markets include BRIC as well as the basket cases in Africa. Even there, the mobile device is a path to increase wealth - an essential tool.

DG

Yelnick,

I see that the mobile internet can drive some growth, but it seems more marginal than substantive, relative to the desktop and corporate internet build-outs. Also, I would expect that at least some of the mobile internet cannibalizes those other sectors, but not necessarily in ways that add to tech sector profitability. Just to take a small example, in a mobile internet context, the same e-commerce transaction that would support 10 banner ad impressions on a desktop browser only supports 2 or 3 banner ads in a mobile browser, due to space limitations. I've had a smartphone with internet access for almost 4 years now and the number of banner ads I see on my phone when I go to Yahoo or some other similar popular page is a fraction of what I see when I'm on a desktop or laptop and browsing.

And, since there are only so many hours a consumer will spend online, an hour spent browsing on a mobile phone while waiting in a doctor's office, for example, is an hour that won't be spend browsing later. So, overall ad revenue for that user per day goes down.

There are other applications that can work in the opposite direction, like real-time alerts based on geographic proximity of a mobile user to a vendor who's interested in selling to that user and has a relevant offer, which can drive some incremental revenue for that vendor, e.g. as I'm walking by a sports bar, they can beam me a message that they're having a special on cheeseburgers and beer or something, but in a context where consumers are tapped out, I don't know that even the most relevant offers delivered in real-time are going to lead to significant growth.

I see the growth for the mobile internet itself, but I don't see how it's incremental to the overall economy, like the first build-out of the internet was. I see it more as a cannibalization play on some areas of the consumer internet as well as other types of content delivery (e.g. magazines) that don't make the move over to electronic delivery. I hear a lot of people talking about how they never read magazines while waiting around offices anymore because they've got their internet right there on their phone, for example.

Plus, you've already got most of the commerce-side software in place with the big e-commerce platforms. A few programming tweaks and they can readily process messages coming from mobile networks, but I don't see that as the sort of big 7-figure consulting gig that the initial wave of e-commerce spawned.

cloudslicer

"(actually several reports, all downloadable from this link) makes a few key points, including:"

This is a broken link.

joe

I understand - I just think the number of basket cases is likely to increase dramatically. But you could be right.

Yelnik - there is this pattern in the market now - that volume goes the opposite way of price. Particularly today - the down move (especially at the end) with rising spy volume? This cannot bode well for the x-mas rally here.

Joe

cloudslicer

I think the next big thing is going to happen in the bio tech space. You have a graying baby boom population that is no stranger to drug usage. Biotech is considered to be a defensive sector so it can survive a poor economic environment. The political environment in the US will likely be divided government after 2010 so we socialized medicine should be stopped dead in its tracks clearing the way for a resumption in innovation.

In short, I think Eugenics is the next big thing. This especially so with the baby boomers retiring.

Viva Viagra!

da bear

micro chipping and electro-magnetic warfare will be the next big tech plays.
sorry for sounding so, ummm, bearish...

da bear

joe

By the end of next year I am sure some technical genius will invent a way to turn stock certificates directly into two ply toilet paper - maybe thats the ticket.

Yelnik - do not count on China driving any kind of growth next year or for years later. In fact, do not count on China being stable at all.

yelnick

Cloud, thanks, I fixed the ink

joe

What does Yves say about the bond rally - not going his way right now - or did he switch his position?

yelnick

Joe, I am preparing a bond post for a little later - Yves however is in Indochina and off net

joe

"Joe, I am preparing a bond post for a little later - Yves however is in Indochina and off net"

Thanks Yelnik - I look forward to it.

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