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« Investment Implications of a Dollar Bottom | Main | Interview with Glenn Neely: The Long Term Market »

Saturday, December 12, 2009


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The first comment at the Wall Street Cheat Sheet link made a good observation about sales tax revenues being down almost across the board. That doesn't jibe with sales increases of any sort.


I've been waiting for months for a particular junk bond fund I follow to reach the top of a precisely-defined box using box theory. It reached it Thursday. This could correspond to at least a short term top in stocks as well.

Hank Wernicki

Sunday December 13th
9:30 am

90m parent fractal paired bottom for the DXD

IF it holds, a big spike UP Stop is close from Friday

Watch the futures tonight

Got a buy for Rite Aid for its earnings this week , but wait ..... till Thursday

Got a buy on GDX

DBC has a bottom for a spike UP

Cary Lloyd

December 29, 1989 was THE top in Japan.

I expect we'll have a major top around that time this year.

vipul garg

indian markets are at a very crucial juncture with a huge move around the corner.

Roger D.

The "Broadening top in The S&P 500"




DG, the retail UP saels tax DOWn is a conundrum! Possibly contributing is an increase in mail order or online vs in store retail. Also, b2b transactions are down. Often overlooked is the chain of b2b transactions that lead to products, which is crushed in a depressionary environment even while the intermediate products do not add to GDP. Yet they still should show up at retail. Anyone have an explanation? Are the sales tax data lagging and will soon catch up to retail surveys?


Sales tax figures will obviously down on discounted and cheaper items than the reference quantity of goods/services.

Roger D.

Just wanted to show this chart of Dow componet UTX, as it is so perfectly formed and will be a primary B wave classic of a historical nature.

The C wave has 7 waves up where the final wave has 5 waves into the top.

It also is tracing out a tweezer top and should have a final thrust up tomorrow to set the "B" top, giving way to the long awaited 3rd wave or C down.

This chart simplifies this long corrective wave up and should be comfort for bears and a warning to bulls.



The dollar is doing pretty well so far tonight - there is no pullback happening from friday - the opposite.

Roger D.


Fib support at 76.410 and 76.314, should bottom and resume the advance towards 77.00



I agree Roger.



You know I thought the Dubai World bond defaults were priced into their bonds - apparently I was wrong - and when they default today on the first bond it could get interesting. Clip from Bloomberg.

“The non-payment would be taken as an indication that Dubai wishes to reschedule all three bonds,” said London-based Richard Segal, an analyst Knight Libertas Ltd. “I fear that those who are expecting the payment might find some sort of an anti-climax. If that happens, I expect prices to drop to the levels where they were before.”


Great analysis of the retail sector. Thanks for your ideas. Whether we have a Sanata Rally or not, you and I agree on one doesn't look good in the over all picture. I'm short, but I also have plenty of cash to get more in if we do rally. Let me draw a brief argument together on the increase in retails sales posted last week. To me, things just don't seem to fit together. Let me try to make this look right on the post:

Debt/credit contracting + personal savings up + unemployment higher than last Christmas + 30-50% decrease in real estate prices = consumer is spending more.

How do these things add up to having the consumer spend more?

Thanks for any ideas,



Its "new math" Jason.

Now one plus one equals whatever the government wants it to be.


That is why year over year sales tax receipts are down 8% to 10%. This is more about trying to lie us into recovery than honest reporting.

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