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« Are Leading Indicators Rolling Over? | Main | A Flurry of Emergency Updates Support the Santa Rally »

Wednesday, December 09, 2009


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EWI concludes that the sideways correction since Nov. 19th is now complete at today's lows and that the market should rally out of this wave structure. And their still 200% short???

Hank Wernicki

Good question, I see the market going higher into February ....


It always pays to fade the STU; glad they are short-term bullish since I am short.


Meh... they are hedging.
Claims: the dollar has bottomed and gold has topped, but stocks still have up-side potential.
One of those predictions will come true and qualify for a "we told you so" later.


I predict - whatever bump in subscriptions Prechter had recently - will reverse.


Retail stocks that been in slow decline since late Oct. (give or take that date). These stocks are saying that the Christmas season doesn't look good for them: M, JCP, AEO, COST, JCP, KSS, TGT, OMX, ODP.

But a few tell of different story: AMZN, WMT, BBY

Which group of stocks is right?

The dollar looks to me like it has been "building cause" for the next push up through USD-76.40. That upmove could start as early as today IMHO.

Wouldnt it be ironic if EWI missed the start of the next push down

Roger D.

Steve Hochenburg doesn't know chit. He changes counts like a nurse changes dirty diapers....baaaaaah.


Grasp, good comment on the divergence in retail. I think WMT and AMZN win due to perceived or real discounts. Not sure about BBY; maybe their hara kiri price war on DVDs has drawn in traffic. (They are doing it vs AMZN and WMT!) 

There has been this interesting phenom of poole trading down - fine restaurants to family, family restaurants to cafes (no tips), and ultimately, to the Four Food Groups of the Apocalypse:

Campbells (soup!)
Hormel (Spam!)

I did notice that even McD's is having some issues. 

Hank Wernicki

This raises an " ethical question " : How can one service say go 200 % short

And another service says a triangle with new highs ahead ?

Personally I like Bob P, but they are pushing the enevelope here ... ?

Talking about having your cake and eating it too !

No matter what happens they are always right ?

Don't investors see this ... ?

Or am I viewing this wrong ?

Comments ?


Hank, it seems about time for the EWT to pull off the short doesn't it? We shall see what he sends out next week. Please note that the EWT count of a triangle ending is not their only count; they also keep open a meltdown from here.


Aussie market down this afternoon trade and often a reasonable precursor to US trade but Aussie up on better than expected employment numbers. Seems our Government can fudge the numbers with the best of them.


Maybe this isn't right. But what seems to me surprising is that the main elliott wave pundits do not have a strong basis, right or wrong, for saying WHEN a major turn is likely to occur. Alternative counts may be a necessity, but there still should be, I would say must be, an approach, such as ratio analysis, applying the fibonacci ratio to the time dimension, or some other cycle approach, that allows us to more clearly favor one count over the other.

Virginia Jim

"After Prechter called all subscribers to 100% levered short Hochberg goes 100% bullish with EITHER an expanding triangle or the end of a b with new highs forthcoming. Not that he doesn't have the right to be wrong, but he doesn't give a single bearish count or review SPX or NDX saying there are too many unclear alternatives to review. So, what he's telling you is the DJIA count is clear and you're guaranteed to have new highs. That's the Hochberg guarantee." - Virginia Jim


Bird, I agree that they are not able to pick it right before, but to their credit EWI got the top in 2007 and the bottom in 2009 pretty close. What has intrigued me about the Zoran approach (which builds on Neely) is that there is no need to pick the top; the need is to recognize a trend change and pick the secondary top (wave 2) before the fast down move.

vipul garg

for a change stu count as shown looks reasonably good to the effect that upmove is to follow.

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