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« Online Retail is Up - Is Amazon Now A Short? | Main | Sentiment Divergence Supports the Santa Rally .. Then a Top »

Tuesday, December 08, 2009

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Kailash

/DX just jumped to 76.6 -- pretty relentless so far.

graspthemarket

I agree with your insightful analysis. I think another concept to support your ideas is that people are reducing their "risk". I think silver is good secondary proxy for the amount of "risk" people are willing to take. Over the past week, silver has seen a 9.5% decline--not because it won't be used, processed etc, in the physical way, but because people are exiting anything that had to do with the carry trade.

Roger D.

The rise of the dollar is "the cross" to the vampire ponzi market.

The perfect broadening top forming now within the larger 5 point reversal pattern is so rare in a major average(SPX) it must carry weight here.

Since the top at 1119 the market has declined in two sharp thrust downwards and rallied on each occasion in corrective fashion.

Tops take time and as each index breaks down completeing there initial wave 1 off their tops, they then complete wave 2 up. That is the stage we are now in. Are we finished now and ready to decline? The market will let us know soon enough. Because when wave 3 starts all averages will break with downward power and then fall to lower levels to validate this historic pattern on very large volume.

I expect after the 5 wave decline to validate the Broadening formation a short sharp rally to fail at 50 to 66 pct of the drop and then the gates of hell to open up on the downside.

Sound too bearish?? No not when you consider the many parabolic moves in the last 9 months.

My opinion is worth nothing, but compact tops formed with ending exhaustion extensions where the market squeezes the last dollar out of the bulls. It is what great bear markets are all about.

Cheers,
Roger

joe

European stock futures are not doing very well tonight - all down by 1.5% or more. This does not bode well for the DJIA tomorrow.

Joe

Kailash

The futures are gyrating wildly -- ES between 1096 and 1090, DX from 76 and up. The dollar is at a level seen in late September, when the S&P was at 1050. There is plenty of room for a real drawdown.

Kailash

A correction to my first post -- I was looking at the March DX futures; the December DX futures never rose above the noon reading of 76.355.

Milen

Hello, I read your site every day and like it.
I think the "wall of worry" is going to melt very soon as well.
According to Investors intelligence advisors sentiment, this week’s data included a new twelve year high for the advisors projecting a correction, along with lower readings for both the bulls and the bears. As things stand, the indexes continue to bet with 2009 highs. Pullbacks last week was brief and followed quickly by new buying. However, I have noted a narrowing of the participation.I have covered my point of view with few charts. Welcome and see more at:
http://oneelliottwavetrader.blogspot.com/

Hockthefarm


And we are going to fight it all with this:


http://blog.american.com/?p=7572


The approach is getting too simple:

1. Drop interest rates to zero.
2. Build houses.
3. Bail out bond holders with tax payer money.
4. Repeat.

That is our economic policy.

Hock

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