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« Neely Joins the January Club, Calls the Top | Main | 3 Things To Know About Bernanke »

Monday, January 25, 2010

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cloudslicer

As a bear I'll take all the 'up' days like this one that the bulls want to throw at me. A no volume up day, with decliners beating advancers on the Nasdaq and flat on the major indicies.

You don't need EW to tell you that the winds of change are blowing.

If this were two months ago the market would have closed at the highs of the day and bears stopped out in the opening minutes.


Michael

Cloud,

I think that fund managers and traders are trying to be patient this week... there really is no reason to be aggressive in front of the State of the Union Address on Wednesday (also FOMC Meeting)which will almost assuredly contain more bank "bashing" and Obama's populist message.

The fact that Bernanke's confirmation vote won't occur until the end of the week tells you that there is even further uncertainty in regards to lining up votes for his support.

As a result, I'm not all that surprised that the market merely treaded water today.

Mamma Boom Boom

RICHARD RUSSELL: If I’m correct, if this is the beginning or a top-out in a bear market rally, then I can tell you that the fun’s over, and the really bad times lie ahead.

Hockthefarm

Ms. Geffreon:

I think Richard Russell is insane. The bear was in the box for most of the 90's as I recall. Someone to fade imo.

Hock

Hockthefarm

Kind of hard to argue with this:

"First of all, I believe we are already in the banking crisis. How do you "lose" Lehman, Bear Stearns, AIG, Fannie, Freddi, Merrill, Citi and many others and believe that we are not IN crisis."

Has a kind of William of Ockham ring to it.

Great post by the way,
Hock

Mamma Boom Boom

Insane: Exhibiting unsoundness or disorder of mind; not sane; mad; deranged in mind; delirious; distracted.

Does he drool, uncontrollably.

betterdays

Wall Street Brokers and Bankers gave over a $$ 100 MILLION dollars to the 2008 Obama Campaign..foolish trade..After a Feb/March top look out on the downside

gus

In the end, look for BofA, CITI, and Chase to join the ranks of the fallen listed above (CITI) never was buried, it is still living dead.

Hockthefarm

Boomer:

I'm not sure. I had a 1 year subscription to his letter back in the early 90's. That was enough for me. Lots of folks like his insight, including Prechter. Not me.

Hock

Mamma Boom Boom

S&P Action: WOW! Just plain spooky.

Mamma Boom Boom

Evidently, the oversold condition is going to worked out over 'time' not 'price'.

(thyme: Thyme is a well known herb; in common usage the name may refer to any or all members of the plant genus Thymus, common thyme, Thymus vulgaris, and some other species that are used as culinary herbs or for medicinal purposes.)

JT

I would not suggest that ONE DAY of market action is indicative of the "oversold" condition being worked out over time, and not price.

JT

PRECHTER ALERT!

He's coming on CNBC now at 3:20PM

:)

Michael

Notice that Sue McMahon of CNBC asked Prechter HOW FAR DOWN he thinks that the market will fall, and Bob did not answer the question.

He merely said that all of his indicators are pointing down and that March 2009 was not the end of the Bear market.

He said to wait at least 1-2 years before doing any buying.

betterdays

Big Down or crash by end of next week?
Or is CNBC ,the right hand of democrats pulling a fake-out to the downside ?

Anon

A correction is now priced in. Time for a price check on the morrow.

Mamma Boom Boom

Just between us girls, I wouldn't rule out a triple bottom followed by a failed breakout attempt. Then an air pocket!

Any other soothsayers?

Dave B.

Who cares?
Just TRADE IT!

Mamma Boom Boom

Dave B., Pipe-Down! (slap..slap)

Prechter Blows

"I wouldn't rule out a triple bottom followed by a failed breakout attempt. Then an air pocket!"

Spoken like someone that has no idea what they are doing...

Alison

Hmm. Read a essay to my son last night that he brought home from school. It explained Ponzi's original scheme and Bennett's later deal that promised 100% return on invetsment instead of 50. Reading that musical chairs quote connected some dots for me and a light came on. Are my circuits faulty or does our whole economy seem like some megalonomic (yes I made that word up) complicated twisted ponzi scheme? You can only build so much wealth out of debt, inflated asset values, and unsustainable promised returns. The essay described it as a "house of cards." Oversimplified I know, but I couldn't resist putting it out there. Same mix of driving forces anyway.

joe

That is about right Prechter Blows.

The sad thing is that this market will probably cave in eventually - but Jesus - "air pocket" -

Alison - tell me you are not about to do something stupid - like investing because you read the wrong essay from your kids school??

Wow - Prechter sure did get his pound of flesh - on CNBC, too - doesn't matter to him if he is right, as long as his subscription base goes up. When he is wrong about the timing, he will just come up with a new pitch.

Joe

This market will eventually give -

Alison

Joe, Nah, but hanks for your concern. Ha! I manage my gov thrift savings plan account (index fund investments, S&P 500 etc.) based on market news, gestalt, and blogs like this- so far I've never fallen below a 7% annual rate of return, not even over the past 3 years, a couple of months ago I was at 9% for the past year so I think I'm doing OK with my strategy. That was just a philosophical megatrend musing that maybe wasn't in step with the scale, or primary purpose, of the blog thread. I have a PhD in Ecology, never read an economics book or took a class in my life. But I am trained in critical thinking and have studied many types of models, my favorite being multivalent set theory (fuzzy logic), so market economics are very interesting, more so every day.

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