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« January Effect | Main | Mid-Day Guess UPDATED »

Monday, February 01, 2010

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Webber

We had a 71% retracement from 1096 on what looks like a fractal of the triple zigzag rally from March 09, including the late bump up. Oversold condition is somewhat relieved so a drop in wave iii of 3 could be likely. The seller's were on the sidelines, just another float up day. Consumer and construction spending ignored. Gold, crude, materials and energy led the rise just to make up for their leading on the downside. Baltic Dry Index is at long-term support line and down 41% since Nov 19.

Perigee

Or we get a longer retracement as B wave before C down into early March and then a rip roaring rally to higher (than Jan) highs into mid-year

upstart

Little bearish triangle underway (C was in progress yesterday) before final drop of the correction.

trendlines

SPX 5-min RSI moving up, but still in no mans land. Any more buying over this week will trigger an overbought divergence and set up a wave 3 or c. Shanghai composite is on support and may be correcting upwards:

http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/02/shanghai-composite-bouncing-on-support.html

Also, here's why we may be need some green days before any more serious damage:

http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/02/us-markets-almost-due-for-rebound.html

What do you guys think?

DG

What do you guys think?

Sentimentrader.com came to a different conclusion than you did about the drop in bullish sentiment.

http://sentimentrader.blogspot.com/2010/01/big-drop-in-sentiment.html

Sometimes his conclusions are counter-intuitive, but he always has a ton of data for backup.

trendlines

Thanks for highlighting DG. I see the rationale for the conclusion, and agree. Medium term, we are headed down for sure. But lots of bearishness in the air. My point was that we need a good ramp up in bullish sentiment again before any serious damage is done. Not necessarily in the price.

JT

The fact of the matter is that there were a TON of E-Wavers who clearly had not defined the count accurately as of Friday's close, and were still LOOKING FOR MORE DOWNSIDE.

I am still at a loss as to why people follow this THEORY given that it gets "colored" in all too often AFTER THE FACT!

Abdi

That's a very nice 10 handle rally in the SPX off the 10am low this morning... Shorts getting crushed!

DG

I am still at a loss as to why people follow this THEORY given that it gets "colored" in all too often AFTER THE FACT!

That makes two of us at a loss, then, because I'm at a loss why someone comes to a blog whose very title: "Planet Yelnick: Commentary on politics, technology and stock markets guided by Elliott Wave principles" references a theory that someone thinks is unworkable.

Riddle me that one, if you will? Isn't there a blog for people who don't want to discuss Elliott Wave? I swear I've heard of one or two of them out there.

DG

Also, this link is for whoever is using different usernames to make it seem like there are more of you:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sockpuppet_%28Internet%29

JT

DG,

So please feel free to tell ALL of us here why it is that the STU at EWI lacked all kinds of specific CLARITY, as Duncan mentioned over the weekend?

JT

Or perhaps you can tell us why you were one of those E-Wavers that was still looking DOWN coming into Monday's opening...

"I haven't seen any indication that this is true. If it were, the long trade signal I got would have lasted much longer. I still think the higher probability is a dump to new lows this afternoon or tomorrow.

Posted by: DG | Monday, February 01, 2010 at 09:30 AM

DG

So please feel free to tell ALL of us here why it is that the STU at EWI lacked all kinds of specific CLARITY, as Duncan mentioned over the weekend?

Because EWI is run by a bunch of morons.

Or perhaps you can tell us why you were one of those E-Wavers that was still looking DOWN coming into Monday's opening...

Yes, I was looking for a reversal sooner than this, but, to be accurate, I also said that my "system" had triggered a long trade FRIDAY afternoon. Trade entry is discretionary, so I didn't take it, but don't tell me what I was or wasn't looking for on Monday's open.

As for the reversal, no signal as yet, but there are still 4 hours to go in the trading day.

Mamma Boom Boom

That should be about the end of this rally. Get your steel toed shoes on.

JT

"Yes, I was looking for a reversal sooner than this, but, to be accurate, I also said that my "system" had triggered a long trade FRIDAY afternoon. Trade entry is discretionary, so I didn't take it, but don't tell me what I was or wasn't looking for on Monday's open."

DG,

Let me get this straight...

Your sophisticated NeoWave "system" issued a LONG signal, but you didn't take it and instead came out and posted at 9:30AM yesterday that you were looking for "a dump to new lows (Monday) afternoon."

Nice way of showing all of us here that you "hedge" your own system and don't have much confidence in it. At the end of the day, you were WRONG and didn't make any money.

I think that everyone here can clearly see that you TALK OUT OF BOTH SIDES OF YOUR MOUTH.

You are a FRAUD.

That's MR. Sockpuppet to you

I think DG is grumpy and likes to smack people around but if it weren't for him, I would not have found my new calling.

DG

Nice way of showing all of us here that you "hedge" your own system and don't have much confidence in it. At the end of the day, you were WRONG and didn't make any money. I think that everyone here can clearly see that you TALK OUT OF BOTH SIDES OF YOUR MOUTH.

You are a FRAUD.
--------------------------------------------------------
Uh, didn't lose any either, which was MY goal for the day. You can set your goals your way and I'll set mine my way, OK?

Also, if you know anything about trading, which you continually claim to, you'd know that discretionary traders outperform mechanical traders across all but the shortest time frames, where the execution speed advantage of a mechanical system comes into play. That's the reason I've decided to be a discretionary trader with a "system" which I can override for entry signals. Thanks for showing everyone here that you don't know your ass from your elbow when it comes to which is better, discretionary or mechanical trading.

Also, actually, the system is self-hedging when wave counts are ambiguous. I see no particular problem with that because I don't make the assumption that wave counts are always clear. In cases like that, the system's risk management techniques make it possible that both sides of the trade end profitably, although, of course, that is not a given, just a probability. So, rather than talking out of both sides of my mouth, I'm profiting from both sides of the market.

Are you done making a fool of yourself for the day or shall we continue?

Now that I've answered your questions, I will repeat mine: Why are you on an Elliott Wave blog if you think the theory is unusable?

DG

I think DG is grumpy and likes to smack people around but if it weren't for him, I would not have found my new calling.

Posted by: That's MR. Sockpuppet to you | Tuesday, February 02, 2010 at 09:03 AM
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Glad I could help, I guess.

I'm not grumpy, I'm more confused why someone would post on a blog dedicated to ideas with which they disagree fairly strongly. There are many things in this world with which I disagree, yet never once have I had the need to go to a blog and announce that disagreement. It's just a very odd psychological make-up required to do that.

JT

"That's the reason I've decided to be a discretionary trader with a "system" which I can override for entry signals."

I'll make this very clear for you to understand...

You are a FRAUD.
You don't TRADE.
You aren't a DISCRETIONARY TRADER, except in your fantasies!

You've spent countless hours on this blog defending your buddy Glenn Neely and NeoWave and telling everyone how you wouldn't be caught dead being involved in any kind of T/A that wasn't as "sophisticated" in NeoWave. Yet, you now claim to be a "discretionary" TRADER.

That's funny.
Now I've heard it all.
Quite entertaining!

:)


JT

"Why are you on an Elliott Wave blog if you think the theory is unusable?

I'm not grumpy, I'm more confused why someone would post on a blog dedicated to ideas with which they disagree fairly strongly."

You continue to "hide" behind the title of Yelnick's blog to defend your claims and twisted logic.

In case you missed all of those thought provoking articles on the Economy, Federal Reserve Policy, the Bond Market, not too mention politics and new technologies that Duncan posts all the time . . . THIS blog is actually about MAKING MONEY!

I would suggest that EW Theory is a small part of what Duncan does here on Planet Yelnick.

That most significant point clearly appears to have escaped you.

kld

JT, let's hear your forecast!

Bird

There is a place for disbelievers in this congregation. Bashing Ewavers when their gurus get it wrong also can be fun sport. The main thing I have against this fringe pursuit is that either you think EWT is idiocy or you think Neely (or Prechter) is God and very few people (altho there are some like Zoran) seem to be taking a look at the theory itself to see if there is anything more to be discovered that could actually turn it into what it once seemed to promise, so long ago.

Dave B.

With all due respect DG, I'm not sure how much of a "discretionary" trader you are if you haven't been able to pull the trigger on the LONG side the last two days.

Quite frankly, there have been some incredibly profitable trades across all sorts of oversold sectors.

A "discretionary" trader would have taken advantage of these chart set-ups, instead of sitting on the "sidelines" as you have chosen to do.

DG

You've spent countless hours on this blog defending your buddy Glenn Neely and NeoWave and telling everyone how you wouldn't be caught dead being involved in any kind of T/A that wasn't as "sophisticated" in NeoWave. Yet, you now claim to be a "discretionary" TRADER.
--------------------------------------------------------
What EXACTLY is the contradiction here? Yes, I've found flaws in NeoWave due to my analysis of Neely's trading records, but that still doesn't undermine the basic premise I've stated which is that NeoWave is better than any other type of T/A I've seen in the public realm. Go read Credit Suisse's report on popular technical indicators and tell me that there aren't flaws in all T/A systems.

http://fibonacci.technicalanalysis.org.uk/YTPK02.pdf

I have actual data on what NeoWave's strengths and weaknesses are, what do you have? An attitude and an opinion. Whoopdee doo. Even with it's flaws, I will take NeoWave over other, even more flawed, approaches.

And, if you're reading my posts CLEARLY you spent many hours on this blog as well and you don't "believe" in wave theory.

You are an idiot. I am more convinced of that than I am convinced of ANYTHING related to NeoWave, actually. I'd be more likely to say NeoWave is for morons than I'd be likely to say you are not retarded. This isn't even about NeoWave, it's about your basic level of ignorance and the flawed assumptions you make about all kinds of things where you have no basis in FACT, but only SPECULATION. I'd say you're a FRAUD, but I suspect you are stupid enough to believe your own posts, which doesn't make you a fraud actually, it just makes you, as I said, an idiot. C'est la vie.

So, I'll just consider your answer to my question "Why are you on an Elliott Wave blog when you think the theory is unusable?" to be "Because, I am an idiot". I'm sure it's an all-purpose answer to most of the things in your life.

Mike McQuaid

SPX trend at worst is neutral. The index trades considerably above a rising 200dma. Since the Nov low to the Jan high we've seen a retrace to the Golden Mean, quite mormal in a rally lasting since March. My wave count has the reversal in March, a running correction wave 2 at July 8 leaving us currently in the midst of primary wave 3. The trend is up.

DG

With all due respect DG, I'm not sure how much of a "discretionary" trader you are if you haven't been able to pull the trigger on the LONG side the last two days.
--------------------------------------------------------
Dave, I only trade the index ETFs, so any oversold individual stuff won't even show up on my radar.

I get trade signals almost every day, so missing one isn't a big deal to me. Yes, this one turned out to be stronger than I anticipated, but I don't chase things, either. As of the close yesterday, I said that the rally wasn't that robust and so far, nothing has happened to change that. For me, every penny and every minute are inputs to my algorithm, so even a 20 point rally, if it doesn't happen quickly enough, is random noise and just a set-up for a trade in the opposite direction. The system has a very nice annualized profitability expectation, so if I miss a 20 point rally, I won't go hungry.

But, that's just me. Others may feel the need to trade every day and try to catch every point. That's fine. I do not have any reason to believe I'd have an edge trading that way, so I don't.

JT

"This isn't even about NeoWave, it's about your basic level of ignorance and the flawed assumptions you make about all kinds of things where you have no basis in FACT, but only SPECULATION."

The FACT of the matter is that you continue to make EXCUSES for not participating in what looks to be a 30 point rally in the S&P.

Your comment about trading ETF's and claiming that they don't show any "oversold" conditions is pure HOGWASH.

Like I said before . . .

You are NOT A TRADER.

DG

I would suggest that EW Theory is a small part of what Duncan does here on Planet Yelnick.

That most significant point clearly appears to have escaped you.
--------------------------------------------------------
"That most significant point" appears to be another figment of your imagination. So, suggest away, but I've been reading this blog for nearly 4 years and I think I know what the predominant form of content is.

Yes, Yelnick does a great job covering a variety of topics, but at least 75% of the posts are E-wave related and my guess is that about 75% of your posts are bashing E-wave. The other 25% are your triumphant after-the-fact bulltard posts.

Anyway, you truly are a moron and I've already given you enough attention, to my own detriment.

Mike McQuaid

XLF is consolidating along the 25% retrace of the May '08 high to March '09 low. So the index is up and sideways off of a reversal, that's a bullish bias. The 25% line action is a tip-of-the-hat to W.D. Gann's way of charting.

Webber

Looks like the top is in at 1100 after a triple zigzag countertrend rally.

DG

The FACT of the matter is that you continue to make EXCUSES for not participating in what looks to be a 30 point rally in the S&P.
------------------------------------------------------
Dude, if you need the 30 points to feed yourself tonight, I'm glad you got them. I'm well-capitalized enough that missing 30 points isn't going to put me on the streets.

My long signal was almost the absolute bottom, so I know the system works. That I missed one trade is fine with me. Maybe if you were more confident in your ability to trade, making every trade wouldn't be such a big deal to you.

-----------------------------------------------------
Your comment about trading ETF's and claiming that they don't show any "oversold" conditions is pure HOGWASH.
-----------------------------------------------------
Huh? Again, you are confirming your simple lack of intelligence with every post. I didn't say "ETFs weren't oversold", although I don't look at indicators for the most part, so that's irrelevant, I said I didn't look for "oversold" individual stocks and that I wasn't going to chase the ETFs after I ignored the original signal. The signals have no way of saying how far a move will go, so chasing one would be impulse-trading, which I don't do.

And, again, numbnuts, just to remind you, had I wanted to, I could have been long on Friday afternoon under SPY 108, before this rally was even a gleam in your eye on Monday morning, so I had no reason to chase it and I just let it go on without me. When did you go long for this "monster" rally? You were probably going long Monday, chasing gaps with no real way of knowing if it'd work out or not. When it did work out, you decided to come here an crow about it.

If you had any brains, you'd be asking me to please post when I go short.

Dave B.

DG,

Can you tell me how it is that ETF's do not show an "oversold/overbought" situation as you have claimed in your previous post?

I find this rather puzzling.

Thanks.

DG

Dave B,

What I mean is that I don't look at "oversold" and "overbought". When you mentioned individual sectors being oversold and overbought, I thought of individual stocks and was saying that I don't trade them. Yes, ETFs can be "oversold" and "overbought", but that's only a small (and subjective) aspect of how I trade them.

The main reason is that I have never seen a decline where "oversold" couldn't get more "oversold" nor a rise where "overbought" could not get more "overbought". In the case of this rally, I thought "oversold" would get more "oversold", hence my standing aside. I see no reason to be brow-beaten by anonymous posters (not you, but others) into taking trades I don't feel compelled to take.

Michael

The Bulls are clearly in charge. Market now trading 1102 SPX.

:)

Mamma Boom Boom

>The Bulls are clearly in charge<

Not so fast!

Webber

1102.73 a 39% retracement.

Michael

And 1.618x (A) = 1114 SPX

Michael

FYI...

Obama's FY-2011 DoD Budget request is +3.4% over last year and now puts the DoD Budget over $700 BILLION!

The Procurement part of the budget sees a 7.6% increase which is huge, and quite contrary to what most of the analysts on the Street were expecting.

Also interesting to note, the FY-2011 spending for Iraq and Afghanistan has now TRIPLED (from just last year) from $50 billion to $150 billion.

Disclosure:

Long L-3 Communications (LLL).

:)

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