search elliott


  • Google
Share/Bookmark

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

FlagCounter

  • Where From?
    free counters
Related Posts with Thumbnails

« Downhill Market Delayed Due To Fog | Main | Obama Declares Mission Accomplished! UPDATED »

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Wave Rust

Yelnick,

Was just reading this piece, furthering the "Beware of Greeks bearing grift."

What's a few swaps if they are just between you and your banker, if your banker is Goldman?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asBNXSLtlN9E&pos=1

trendlines

Thanks Yelnick, in my view a union such as europe will always face trouble in a purely capitalistic model - members all have unequal shoes to begin with.

Chabazite

After three thousand years + of war in Europe, I wonder what on earth led our illustrious political leaders to think they could somehow engineer a peace in thirty? The squabbling remains.

trendlines

For the S&P500, expecting consolidation ahead due to very overbought conditions, although a test of 1105 may be on the cards. Also, i'd like to open up the Shanghai connection, for discussion again - first identified a few weeks ago.

http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/02/s-short-term-consolidation-ahead.html

upstart

Told ya Futia was onto something. That's because a 5-month cycle bottomed. New highs on the way with a topping pattern pointing to April, then a pullback into a July low when the 5-month bottoms again simultaneously with two other monthly cycles. That will be a bit larger pullback, will also qualify as the 4-yr. cycle low. Then the big top will come 4th quarter where another topping pattern points. That's where the larger bear market will return. This also fits with Futia, because he believes the negativism was extreme enough to carry the rally through most of this year.

DG

Told ya Futia was onto something.

I said after the close on February 5th that a rally retracing 30-50% of the decline was probably on, so I was "on to something", too. I guess. Where we go from here is the issue and hasn't been decided at all.

I don't think bulls or bears have a right to lay claim to being right as of yet.

Bird

Per my prior post on Feb 15th, first time target on BKX is met right now and appears to be showing resistance. If the juncture holds, it should lead to new lows.

DG

I don't think bulls or bears have a right to lay claim to being right as of yet.

I do think that once again, the "super-bears" have been wrong. This has not been an Impulse wave down. Nor has it been an Impulse wave up. Any counts relying on either of those being true are wrong. We may continue to drift upward or head down from here, but not in Impulsive formations.

DG

Bird,

I didn't really get the mechanics of what you were saying in your recent post, but thanks for the real-time update.

I got a sell on the IWM, which is still in effect. If we make a new low for the day, then the stop will move to today's high.

Webber

Breakdown in S&P out of trip triangles and an expanded flat on the minute chart.

Bird

DG, It is my fault, as I haven't really explained the mechanics. Thanks for following it anyway. Both DJI and SPX show potential lock-ins of the highs today according to this approach, suggesting the next move is down starting with those highs. Doesn't mean it could not get blown through but I would not want to be long here either.

DG

Bird,

Then I am glad it wasn't that I missed something, but that it wasn't there. I think that methods which give you an exact price point at which you can determine if you are right or wrong, as yours seems to do, by saying that above today's high you're probably wrong, are always worth pursuing, especially when the price points are very precise and don't have a lot of time latency (ideally, zero time latency), like many crossover methods and indicators do, since time latency leads to potentially outsized price moves against your position while you wait for your indicator to trigger.

Bird

DG,

Yes.

But also to clarify, what happens with this particular approach is that the market can only turn at certain price/time junctures, determined by the prior swing. So "wrong" in this context means that if the first juncture gets blown, the market then will likely go to the next juncture. It would be nice to not hedge and just say "this is it". Sometimes that seems possible. But at least on the recent 60 minute charts of the major indexes the meandering waves leading into the January high give a little less to work with.

DG

It would be nice to not hedge and just say "this is it". Sometimes that seems possible.

Yes, I have done some regression analysis that has persuaded me that the market is sometimes much more linear, with respect to time, than at other times and that there is a fairly tight relationship between those times and specific Elliott Wave Progress Labels.

Bird

By the way DG, I checked out IWM following your above post. If we get a little traction to the downside, it might be interesting to follow it a little more closely. I am going to look for a wave 2 type entry point south off of the current high of today (if it holds), maybe using the 10 minute scale, and hold for the nearest potential 60-minute "lock-out" per the price-time approach I have been posting about.

DG

Bird,

Ideally, the rebound off the more recent lower low is a move which will fail to make another high, giving us a lower high from which to decline.

Bird

DG, Yes I see it. That would be a possible place to go in. (I think you are already in?) But I think I am going to wait for the next lower high, or one after that. I want to find resistance at a specific time/price point. I may miss it early on, but it would give me greater confidence.

DG

Bird,

No, I was in a short trade with the SPY yesterday, but got stopped out at the end of the day. It just so happened that the IWM gave a sell signal while I was in the SPY trade. I had initially hoped that the IWM showing weakness would spread to the other ETFs, but obviously it didn't. I'm now waiting for the SPY to give me another signal to re-enter. I'd also take a long trade if it signaled, but the market would have to be quite strong for that to occur.

Steven_737

The question is:

Has the ending diagonal completed already?

http://steven737.typepad.com/blog/2010/02/has-the-ending-diagonal-completed.html

Michael

The Bearish Sentiment numbers for newsletter writers just came out via Investor's Intelligence today and they now show another INCREASE in BEARISH SENTIMENT to 27.8%

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/investors_intelligence.aspx

Steven_737

Traders who capitalize on NR7, today have an NR21 !!
NDX and DOW30 have NR22, while SPX sports NR27...... :)

Taz

Thanks Bird,

Keep us up to date with your price/time junctures.

I am lookinh higher first so I guess your next time of Feb 22 would be my target?

TAZ

Anonymous

I wonder what Hochberg and the STU say today???
I guess they will be hanging their hat on the previous 1104 SPX high.

yelnick

Anon, I will post later, but suffice to say they see is in a wave 4 triangle of the final fifth wave (or a flat)

The comments to this entry are closed.