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« Lies, Damned Lies, and Unemployment UPDATED | Main | Super Bowl Commercial MVP: Dramatic Chipmunk! »

Sunday, February 07, 2010


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The Hope Rally moniker is getting a little tedious. Time for a new name. I vote for Hopeless or Nope. One thing for sure, I "hope" it does pop tomorrow so I can add to my short positions at better prices.


Good analysis as always Yelnick, presenting all the scenarios. I especially agree with your Monday action - retrace up was impulsive, hence an ABC or sidways before another impulse up at least.

However, as explained on my blog post, i have reasons to keep the alternative count in view: The wave ii in charts above is actually a outsized wave iv(a 38% retrace as you mentioned), just as it happened in the Shanghai chart. It does look like 3 waves, but the rapid nature of the drop could have necessitated a bigger 'wave iv' time and price correction, making it relatively bigger

The super bearish sentiment right now with almost everyone expecting a plunge, and nearly oversold daily and weekly RSIs are supporting arguments. But you never know :) Not betting against this trend.

A good break below 1045 would break the 'Shanghai connection'


Yelnick, hopefully you took your own advice re the Aint's.


You know, every Monday has been bullish for 9 months now. I think its time for Monday to resolve to its mean. What is the last thing traders expect?

Crash and burn in the 3rd of the 3rd down.


The Halloween Rally topped out for Martin Luther King.

I'm still looking for a Valentine's Day low.

Jeff Clark


Beware of the 'Stable Value' funds in 401ks. I recently discovered that my stable value fund changed its portfolio from annuities and cash equivalents to mortgage derivatives and other 'synthetics'.

I corresponded with Ed Handley, a financial talk show host and money manager up here in the D.C area and he said he's seen this before this allot. My view is that this is going to be the final destination for the toxic assets from banks that are now floating around on the books of the US Department of Treasury: the retail investor retirement accounts under the guise of a 'Risk-less Investment Class'. I think these 'Stable Value' funds will probably blow up at the most in opportune time when the retail investor finally runs away from the market.

For the time being I have no choice but put all my retirement money into the vanguard total bond market index (yuk). I note that during 2008 it too got hit but not as badly as the broad market. This has effectively robbed my of a risk-less investment option at the most in opportune time.

Has anybody else on this board seen something similar?


Anon, Geaux Aints!!

Mamma Boom Boom

>My bet is we get to Sp1083 intraday Monday before truly reversing down.<

I have to admit, I was more than a little skeptical of this prediction, although there are still 2 hours.

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