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« CleanTech Perils When Relying on Government Subsidies | Main | China and the New American Manufacturing Paradigm »

Monday, March 22, 2010

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Mamma Boom Boom

I didn't know anyone doubted the double dip. Or triple dip, quadrupole dip, or hockey stick recovery. I must have extended too much credit.

Brian

Even if Prechter's track record weren't such an anti-predictor, look at his ads on the right margin of this website! They are so lame it would be embarrassing to take his advice seriously.

Is Conquer the Crash too negative???? OR A LIFE SAVER!!! Wow! Maybe it'll save my life!

Soros similar to Prechter??? HOLY SH-T I've got to check that stuff out!

The world's largest market forecasting firm! Yeah, that's who I want advice from... the BIGGEST group of forecasters.

ugh

Michael

Yelnick,

What are the inputs that go into the Chinese Leading Indicators? Are they pretty much the same as ours?

Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Money Supply, CPI, Commercial Loans, Corporate Profits? Import/Export Volume?

Anon

I don't find that housing article particularly compelling. Uptrending markets bottom on low volume and from the charts price is consolidating for a move one way or the other. The fact that volume appears to have bottomed in 2007/2008 and prices in 2009 would indicate a pullback on low volume.

joe

I think we completed wave 5 today. Hopefully market should tank tomorrow.

yelnick

Michael, Westpac Bank in Oz creates these leading indicators. They also release them for Australia. I presume they are similar in construct.

MA

Brian

thanks for adding a bit of humour to the situation. Maybe another headline like "newsletter service that manages to keep same wave count for 3 days running" or "newsletter service with very low perfomance ranking"; but I wouldn't expect to read those headlines anytime soon.

MA

betterdays

Saw Precther last on the talking head network Cnbc... what a joke to lamely say he was right on the USA dollar and little else ..oh the market will be lower in 2 years. Precther's subscribers deserve to be 300 % short

Chabazite

Good post Yelnick. Plenty of food for thought here. Thanks.

Ed

Problem is the brown shoots just mean more of the same....zero rates, QE, and a global race to devalue currencies, which means the inflation trade lives on....The Fed isn't about to let a whiff of deflation creep in until someone pulls the rug out from them and given the state of the rest of the world it appears capital doesn't mind buying UST's....The market will break when things in the econonmy look better, not worse I'm afraid. Ben isn't about to let off the gas until someone or something forces him to. Heck, I've almost convinced myself to go net long! Instead, I'll just watch another month of puts expire worthless...Waterboarding might be more fun.

Glenn Loser Neely

DG,
I have a few questions for you:

If you are a real sucessful trader, why do you spend so much time in this blog answering anonymous posts?

How much time do you spend everyday in this blog and your gay-club blog?

You really seem to be a troubled man. ...... coming here to decide what to do in the markets!! You make me puke!!

Glenn Loser Neely

Glenn Loser Neely

DG

Yo, GLN, here you go.

http://yfrog.com/9g36979606p

David

i have posted an asx 200 update for those aussies interested...

http://www.tradeyourwayout.com/2010/03/asx-200-daily-chart-update-caution-is.html

Hockthefarm

Ed:

You may be right. Then we will be known as the scum generation. "Here is a truckload of debt for you little fluckers to pay off."

We can sit around and watch the bright ones "walk" in our old age.

Hock

Michael

Interesting feature article on the front cover of this week's Barron's showing an ice cream cone with two scoops entitled, "No Double-Dip".

The article makes a case for 3% GDP growth going forward.

Interesting.

Anon

I found this of interest.

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2010/03/federal-government-owns-or-guarantees.html

David

i have posted a possible short term count for the spx for those interested...

http://www.tradeyourwayout.com/2010/03/spx-5-min-chart-possible-short-term.html

Hank Wernicki

7:30 am

There is a iteration for the SPX from 1/14 that marked a turn down (60m chart)

Its copy started the 3/19 rally to 3/22

Though not entirely "Exact" the two fractals are "Quasi-Similar"

Ideally another 3 points up to test the high for a failure ( confirmation )

At this point it would represent a short entry

1165.81 was the close for the SPX yesterday

the high thus far for the index is 1169.84 STOP

this is about a 4 point Risk to short the SPX

Aggressive Speculators can scale in with the Stop

Risk / Reward is 4 points for 20 points or more to the downside


vipul garg

i think going long with a stop at 1151 seems worthwhile for a short term trade to 1175, 1195.

Wave Rust

Biden says to Obama, at the healthcare bill signing, picked up on the microphones

'This is a big "f___ing" deal.'

Biden is the classiest guy in the obama admin

I can't decide which part is my favorite part of obama care ,,,
--maybe it's the fines and penalties if I'm ever uninsured for more than a month
--maybe it's having the IRS running/validating/and most of all ENFORCING healthcare on me, whether I want it, need it, can afford it.

Soros, the neonazi wins! you lose.

Biden is exactly right!

wave rust

yelnick

Wave, think of obamacare as an arb play: cheaper to pay the fine than buy insurance, since you buy back in when injured/sick with no penalty/premium regardless of pre existing condition. Fine may be 5x cheaper than insurance.

DG

Non-scientific look at institutional views of the rally

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/waiting-for-the-next-inflection-point/

JT

Yelnick,

You hit the nail on the head!

I can't believe that so many people have such a terrible understanding of how this new legislation works.

Meanwhile, none of these "penalties" ($750) even go into effect until 2014 in the Senate bill for companies with 50 or more employees. The House reconciliation bill would increase that penalty to $2,000, with the first 30 workers exempted.

Michael

Carl Futia has once again shown the way this morning. The guy has been extremely good at pin-pointing these bull moves with his "box" method. No doubt about it!

anonymous

Is Prechter still 50% short from SPX 1000 (early August) and another 50% short from SPX 1038? Not too mention 200% short from about 100 points lower in the SPX?

Seems like "top-picking" hasn't been working very well for he and Hochberg.

Mamma Boom Boom

Carl Futia
Carl Futia
Carl Futia
Carl Futia
Carl Futia
Carl Futia
Carl Futia
Carl Futia

Who will it be next year? Oooooooooooo.

Anonymous

Who else do you know of who has been making money THIS year trading the US equity market from the LONG side?

Certainly not any of the E-Wavers.
Certainly not Prechter.
Certainly not Hochberg.
Certainly not Neely.


http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

:)

Greg

I did.

Wave Rust

Yelnick,
that scam will work for awhile for some people, but that gaping hole will be found and covered with greater fines and penalties,and, then more fines for not being induced to get insurance. It's the IRS. they don't care, they don't listen. They just execute. They get $10 billion from the start and that will likely double quickly for more regional and local office expansion.

JT,
read the bill. wait for the regs and rules in about 6 months when they begin to be issued by HHS and IRS.

you won't recognize the law in the coming regs and rules, as they relate to bureaucracy, an insured person, an insured corporation, a gov't employee.

Then wait another few months for the Feds to tell you how much they saved you by forcing you to pay premiums or fees/fines (whichever you prefer).
Then come tell us all how right or wrong this bill is.

As a personal note, 3 great physicians are leaving their independent practices. 1 will teach, 1 will be in law school in the fall, I dont know what the 3rd will do ,,, she has small children. All 3 have been self insuring for more than 10 years.

They think "the doctor fix" is coersive and won't fix a thing. They are leaving before they are not allowed to leave by the IRS/AMA/HHS.

Why don't you tell us all what we don't know or what our "terrible understanding of how this new legislation works." really is.

legislation never works. so tell us how this one works.

wave rust


JT

Wave,

I HAVE read the Senate Bill, and the House reconciliation Bill. It's all right there. None of what I stated was untrue.

What you have "suggested" is nothing more than speculation. The law would have to be Amended by Congress in order to change the penalties.

By the way, the waiting periods for coverage may not exceed 90 days. In any event, barring any kind of major incident/accident which sends one to the ER for a major medical emergency, there is a fairly high probability that those above the age of 26 will simply accept the "penalty". That having been said, the Massachussetts and Mitt Romney Plan has not seen this kind of behavior. Most people see this as an opportunity to take advantage of a lot of preventive care.

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