Back in Mar 2007 Yves posted a prescient analysis of hitting the top of a Liquidity Mountain. He sent me this updated chart and said to start sounding the air raid sirens again. He sees stocks converging back to sentiment, which means down. You can find a complete list of his posts here.
Yves is certainly correct about liquidity. As you all know, I challenged a poster yesterday who said 'this a liquidity driven market'. He did not accept the challenge, but I will make my point, anyway.
His claim was that liquidity always drives the market. There was a time when, for the most part, that was true. But over the past 10 years there have been several times when it was not true.
But, that argument aside, I suggest that you pay attention to Yves, because he is on the right track. Specifically: WHERE'S THE BEEF?
http://www.imagebam.com/image/40ff6369595421
Actually, just about any measure you look at shows that money is being destroyed faster than it is being created.
That simple fact completely debunks the 'this a liquidity driven market' thesis.
End of story!
Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Thursday, February 25, 2010 at 10:53 AM
Nice chart.
Too bad it has nothing to do with reality.
Posted by: Michael | Thursday, February 25, 2010 at 12:05 PM
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/
Posted by: Michael | Thursday, February 25, 2010 at 12:06 PM
Could someone can explain to me the connection between the chart and these so called air raid sirens.
Posted by: kim | Thursday, February 25, 2010 at 12:09 PM
I don't think the bears were really here today. This looks like it is going to be a candle with a LONG wick
Posted by: bob m | Thursday, February 25, 2010 at 12:13 PM
Even by the feds own admission, and you know how they lie: http://www.imagebam.com/image/7753ab69633352
Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Thursday, February 25, 2010 at 12:30 PM
Yet another perfect "measured-move" in which C=A to the penny at today's SPY low:
111.58 - 109.52 = 2.06 (A)
111.00 - 108.94 = 2.06 (C)
Ka-Ching!
Posted by: Michael | Thursday, February 25, 2010 at 12:38 PM
Non-cash liquidity: http://www.imagebam.com/image/5de52c69634997
My last one. You get the idea.
Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Thursday, February 25, 2010 at 12:41 PM