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« Kenny Gets the Prize! | Main | Waiting for the IPOs »

Tuesday, March 09, 2010

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Michael

Kenny has the Dow Jones' 5=1 in (c) of (C) at 10,641

We are getting very close to that target.

:)

Canadian Money

The short term SP500 count, starting upward from the Feb. 5th low looks like 5 waves up. This pattern is now within spitting distance of the upper channel line drawn from the top of wave 3. Classic short-term Elliott..a warning of an impending downturn.

The possible end of 3-3-5 count irregular second wave that began in late Feb. Also classic Elliott....an irregular wave 2 of this size being a longer term warning of weakness to follow.

Ed

As predicted, Neely stopped out, now issuing emergency reshort alert at 1138....kiss of death...here I was starting to think that my puts were going to work...rats

Contrary Trader

Just like clockwork ... Neely to the "rescue" for the Bulls and buy-programs galore after 3:25PM Eastern.

Unreal.

Milen

Oops, Kenny has become a bull finally? This is a really good bear news :)

mogey

Neely is using a "new" indicator, but the result is the same. Another loss.

David

i have posted an updated count of the spx and a possible projection for those interested :-)

http://www.tradeyourwayout.com/2010/03/spx-update-daily-chart-impulsive-sell.html

Mr. Panic

Pattern match to the January 2009 top in most indices but the greatest match is the reading of the McClellan Oscillator's 10% and 5% component readings (approx. 670and 450 the last few days (not including today's numbers which I haven't seen) at the Jan top. ISEE index put call ratio had huge readings most of the day up until the market turned (as high as 300+) but still finished at a yearly high and the highest level since October 2007. 5 Day Arms for the Nasdaq at .7, Nyse a little more moderate reading slightly above .8 (.75 reading on Feb 2 before the big one day tumble)
As for some e-waving, $NDX off the Feb 5 low: A=C was at 1899 (999)(achieved on 03-09),$rut A=C was at around 673 ($rut with a close of 669.6).($spx 14day RSI @666) so the numerology is there plus the weekly close numbers for last week which should be an important high.
Markets made a doji and shooting star following Friday's big upday.(ala Jan 2009) Now look for the big day down tomorrow. If the market follows 1987 then it should drop below last Friday's open. January 2009 wasn't as dramatic. A weekly reversal this week would still make last week a cycle high when it should have occurred.
Nasdaq volume to NYSE volume on 5,10,20,50 day average at a multiyear high. I even went back to 1999-2000 to check the Naz/NY volume ratio and it is running higher the past year then it was then (which is hard to believe---I remember Nortel Networks accounted for 30% to the TSE volume back then)

Dave B.

Volume remains light as AIG (1 Billion) and Citi (57 million) makes up a nice chunk of it.

Wednesday's usually see option-expiration "unwinds" ahead of the Friday expiration. Look for a nice push higher tomorrow.

Igor

DG,
Is there any chance to get an invite to your blog?
I use NEoWave method in counting waves and would like to exchange some thoughts with neowavers.
TIA

DG

Igor,

I can only do it if you're a current subscriber to one of Neely's services because we discuss the recommendations in detail and I don't want to give away Neely's service data. If so, post something from the most recent update and let me know your e-mail address and I will send you an invite.

Igor

DG,
This excerpt from NEOWave forecasting for S&P 500 from Mar 8th, 2010:
"If wave-E ended January 2010, the S&P should not be showing so much strength during the early stages of a major downtrend. For that reason, next week it is likely this count will need adjustment. Following NEoWave rules, we want any adjustments to structure to be as minor as possible. That puts wave-(A) at the March 2009 low (see red-arrow)."

My e-mail: igorrakh at gmail.com

THNX

EN

Interesting Fibo time sequence at work. 13 days down from Jan top, then 21 up to today's high, for a total roundtrip of 34 days.

Hope we get a retest of the recent lows before it takes off to the north but since when does hope matter . . .

betterdays

Neely, Neely, Neely..who out there can produce a profitable trading record over the last 5 months?. not just 5, 10% but solid recommandations and results ...yes ,the FCX call options were like printing money.. but what trading letter has produced ?

twitter.com/DrBubb

THREE DAYS OF LEVITATION

Do you remember...

Date=====: --SPX- : change // --INDU- : change : volume
09/30/1987 : 321.83 : ......... // 2,596.28 : ........ : 23.4mn
10/01/1987 : 327.33 : +1.71% // 2,639.20 : +1.65% : 22.2mn
10/02/1987 : 328.07 : +0.23% // 2,640.99 : +0.06% : 17.8mn
10/05/1987 : 328.08 : +0.00% // 2,640.18 : -0.03% : 19.0mn
14 days later
10/19/1987 : 224.84 : -31.5% // 1,738.74 : -34.1% : 87.2mn

Three days at a "top" on light volume, then: the deluge.

So far, in recent days....

Date=======: --SPX- : change // --INDU- : change : volume
03/04/2010 : 1122.97 : ........ // 10,444.14 : ........ : 164.9mn
03/05/2010 : 1138.70 : +1.40% // 10,566.20 : +1.17% : 184.2mn
03/08/2010 : 1138.50 : -0.02% // 10,552.52 : -0.13% : 171.7mn
03/09/2010 : 1140.44 : +0.17% // 10,564.38 : +0.11% : 219.9mn

No guarantee of the fall. It is merely an interesting comparison

cc

Or this? Expecting a drop into next Tuesday's Fed meeting, which then gives the "all clear".

http://content.screencast.com/users/texana44/folders/Jing/media/a026bbcb-c79b-4c03-bbfa-4c514f478094/2010-03-09_1705.png

twitter.com/Frac_Man

Shorted the SPX at the with a stop, big test here at 1150 for the market. Holding it means a correction. Breaking it means 1200. We'll have to wait and see.

Hank

Roger D.

Currently there are 22 Dow stocks in topping patterns.

5 in uptrends

3 in trading ranges

Time is running out.

Roger D.

The end could come at anytime.

Roger

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/04b300fe-0f84-4c3d-83c3-f87e3f5447a2

Roger D.

The OEX Weekly

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/f9a806d2-1c05-4910-8828-6ea455fe199f

Gleen Loser Neely

Here are the latest emails between the Neely Shill and Glenn Loser Neely.

________________________________________________

DG,
Is there any chance to get an invite to your only men blog (gay blog)?
I use the NEoGarbage method in counting waves and flushing my toilet and would like to exchange some thoughts with other neo-losers

Glenn Loser Neely

________________________________________________
GLN,

I can only do it if you're a current gay subscriber to one of my boyfriend's services because we discuss our gay dates in detail and I don't want to give away my boyfriend's service data. If so, post something from the most recent date and let me know your e-mail address and I will send you an invite

DG (Alias the Neely Shill)
___________________________________________________
DG,

You and Neely were kissing in Central Park on March 8th.

GLN

_____________________________________________________

GLN,

You are a bitch...
Here is your login:

Loser

and your password:

Neogay

Let the party begin.... honey...turn off the lights!!

DG (Glenny's boyfriend)

William P

Glenn Loser Neely.....

You are the best!!!
Really funny!!..

ja ja ja.. I can't stop laughing!!

 Webber

A nice 5 wave impulse off the top today. Retracements were minimal after the first wave 2, strong selling for a change on a pick-up in volume. The wave form since November is a very good fractal from May-October, 2007. After a run-up, prices vacillated for 2 months before hitting a new high on 7/16. A sharp drop over 23 days lopped off 9.7% before a hammer reversal that topped out in 39 days, setting a new high by 1.3%. The corrections are both 5-3-5 and quite similar. In 2007 it lasted 1.695 times the drop. Today is a fibonacci 1.615x the January fall (-9.2% in price) in time, and if it takes one more day to push up to a new high it will be 1.692x. A target of 1165 beats the high by 1.3%. At the close subminuette wave 2 had retraced 52% of 1 so we could drop further from here. The bear is back.

Wave Rust

Yelnick has mentioned low volume as a reason this rally can't be bullish.

Low volume with rising price is extremely bullish if it's early in a new bull market. And, it is very early.

Evidence? Other than the last 100 years, here's a current picture of NYUD, the NYSE's Up/Down volume cumulative. At yesterday's close, the NYUD was at December 2007 ! ! levels. The Dow was 3,000 points higher then.

Photobucket

Yelnick mentions Zoran Gayer as if he is worthy of following. He wasn't. I remember him as an excellent fade. Consistently. His chart work was fine but his conclusions were nearly always wrong. Even when the Dow was 3,000 points out of the depths of the October 2002 low, and 15 months later, he still could not see the bull.

Look at page 2 here when his 'terminal', ending diagonal got busted again for the umpteenth time. The dow still had several more up weeks to go for another 300+ points.

http://www.safehaven.com/pdf/122803gayer.pdf

He had more bifurcation points than Carter has liver pills. He should have called it biforkation point, because he was usually about to get forked. Especially with that Iraq war diagonal, which wasn't, even though he tried to make into a something more than a wedge.

I have not been able to figure out why you, Duncan/Yelnick have stayed so deep in the bearish counts. Then it finally dawned on me that it was your apparent reverence for Zoran's methods. imho, the charts were nice but the counts were always too bearish, and, too often so very wrong.

He only used price and occasionally volume to trade. That's like trying to drive a car by looking through a microscope. You tend to bump into alot of things.
+++++

This is a bull market and bearish EW counts derived from using the pretzel logic of your choice is going to get you forked.

Tony Caldaro is not prematurely turning bullish. He's late and he knows it. I'll bet that's why he changed his Cycle degree count too. His bullish count is on the Dow charts as an alternate, but it's the nearly the right count.

But Caldaro vowed to not ever miss the obvious wave counts at the top in 2007. I give him lots of credit for that.

+++++
Short term,,, looks like a set up for a down correction that sets up a huge spike up from the lows,,, maybe down to SPX 1120 or 1125, then launch early next week, maybe.

we'll see. that's my 2 cents.

wave rust

Glenn Loser Neely

Wave rust,

just 2 things.

a) I would love to hear your opinion of DG and his boyfriend Neely.
b) and please use another IP address and name, because Duncam/Yelnick is going to ban you from this bearish blog.

Glenny Loser Neely

bob m

Hey Mamma BB,

You watching gold. Could be breaking down - market following.

Roger D.

Wave rust,

Tony C missed the top in 2007. I remember because I was right and he thought there was more upside to go. There was a 5 wave extension going into the top that he totaly did not see.

Also Tony still counts the move off the 2002 low to the 2007 top as a 5 wave,history will prove hime wrong as that is a 3 step B wave.

Tony does a good job overall but his bullish epiphany lately is a bullish wet dream. Sometimes you get to close to the market and just F'up.

Roger

Roger D.

Wave rust,

They said in 1929,1987,2000,2007,and 2010 stocks were in a major new bull market and would never come down. The call many times where for 20K,30k,and 50k in the Dow.

Tell me is BIDU a good buy?

After rising 400 pct in 14 months?

"In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king"

Cheers,

Roger

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/bf557e6d-ec5c-4785-96d0-8c9e5b65c675

Wave Rust

Roger,

That was my point about Tony waiting way too long in 2007 and early 2008. I could have written it better.

But i think he is really taken that step back from the close up of the counts. I know you are bearish but it is just simply so bullish that people are fooled by the straight-up nature of the rally that they can't imagine that markets went from the worst decline in decades to the most bullish market in decades. It just doesn't compute,,, especially with a V bottom. But that's how most bull moves work.

It is more bullish intermediate term (2-3 years) than 2002 or 2003, and 1987. A case can be made that 2000 to 2009 was just one big abc, correcting the Cycle bull from the '74/'82 lows.

Somebody keeps calling for a repeat of the 1987 crash which was a 2 wave imho. If he waited to start posting that this summer, then I could see the comparison since the top in 1987 was late August. Thats when I see this rally putting in the Primary 1 high and then a hard and sharp correction into the Christmas season ,,, just like the '87 crash bottomed in early December '87.

that would be the 33rd anniversary of that crazy correction.

SPX 1250 to 1400 is where the P1 could stop.

Alot more ups to come.

Never fade the Fed too.

wave rust

Wave Rust

They sure did say that at those tops.

I didn't.

Don't know about Bidu. I dont like China, except for eating on. They are Communists.

wave rust

Roger D.

Wave rust,

thanks,

Roger

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/91a916d0-6f64-4697-b2a5-4f6fefb2e433

DG

You impulse guys are smoking crack. Other than the steadiness of the rise, NONE of the internal structures support an "impulsive" interpretation. The fact that each of these rallies starts out "impulse-like" is a reflection of the fact that they are all starting with a wave-A, which is supposed to quickly retrace the prior decline. The fact that these quick starts are followed by upward meandering is exactly the sign of a Corrective rally.

http://yfrog.com/3dspxweekly3p

Wave Rust

""a) I would love to hear your opinion of DG and his boyfriend Neely.
b) and please use another IP address and name, because Duncam/Yelnick is going to ban you from this bearish blog.

Glenny Loser Neely""

GLN,
DG is okay. Free country. Free to believe whatever you want.

Best two things Neely ever did were 1. saying and 'proving' the Dow would never see 1,000 again; 2. and what he has on pages 217-223 in his Elliott rule book.

neowave has too many rules that tries to quantify what market prices do. Markets move with what people love, hate, fear etc. The cure for that flaw is not more rules. Thats why having the original version of Frost and prechter's EWP and sticking to its simplicity is still a sound strategy.

EW is but a small useful tool in technical analysis. Its advocates get bogged and then flogged by only using it and ignore the rest of TA world.

Over the years, my biggest flaw as a trader has been to become married to a scenario/wave count. Just not as often in recent years. Trading the markets makes corrections in the swings of one's self esteem ,,, from pride to humility. So I take the self esteem corrections with gratitude for the reminders. The market is an excellent teacher, if you are willing to listen and learn continuously.

As for Yelnick, he's a big boy. He knows I am critical of his wave count bias, and not of him as a person or as a blogger/financier/economic analyst, or as a writer.

wave rust

Wave Rust

DG,

There is alot of similarity between the looks of the 2003 run and this one. (look at that Zoran safehaven link above)

It's the first corrections that confirm or invalidate the first waves. So, until that first correction this fall, I maintain the right to be completely wrong or right, about this rally.

trading it like it is an impulse, with so many overlaps (like 2003), is and has been the right course.

wave rust

yelnick

Wave Rust, no worries. I welcome critics, especially of my comments, not just Prechter or Neely or Tony et al. Too easy to take shots at them. I only ban flamers, and, maybe, bad jokers. One of the GLN's can be pretty witty. The rest ...

Wave Rust

Yelnick,
:) I knew that.

Curious, how many blogs/websites etc. do you have on RSS feeds? 'cause you really do find some real nuggets.

wave rust

DG

Wave Rust,

Speaking of "what have I learned over the years" using wave theory, one of the biggest is that Corrective patterns can, when at the right degree, be huge, and, thus, be mistaken for Impulses.

Looking at structure right now, I don't see an Impulse. That means very little in terms of how much of the rally gets Corrected. It could be as little as ~38.2% or more than 100%. At least from a wave structure point of view, even the minimal retrace of ~38.2% wouldn't make me shift my view of whether or not the rally was an Impulse. That has more long-term than short-term implications, of course.

yelnick

Wave - RSS feeds = somewhere over 30. Easy to fly thru tons of info without waiting for the tabs in the browser to open. The most difficult part is the ever present cheerleading for official policy (see the latest Jesse Cafe Americain post today) vs the desire to prove the cheerleading wrong. Often both positions are disguised as reasoned argument. Krugman is a great example of this. Sometimes he is spot on, but usually he is shilling. Hence worth picking on.

How to distinguish? Wasn't that what the expensive liberal arts education was for?

JT

"You impulse guys are smoking crack. Other than the steadiness of the rise, NONE of the internal structures support an "impulsive" interpretation." ---DG

I find this to be one of the truly absurd conclusions of EWT. To think that one is "safe" from a rally merely because it is "corrective" and not "impulsive" is an extremely DANGEROUS tenet.

That fact of the matter is that the S&P has rallied for an ENTIRE YEAR and nearly 500 points based on a "corrective" pattern.

Anyone that takes solace in this rally being "corrective" in nature is a FOOL.

No one successfully trades off that.

Roger D.

There was a nice divergence this morning between the Dow and everything else.

Maybe those 22 topping patterns are starting to have some weight here.

Roger

Michael

Hey vipul garg...

How do you like my "Stock of The Year" now???

:)

Roger D.

Will the Dow make 3 mountain tops?

Roger D.

BA,DIS,KFT,JNJ,INTC all are up,but those are in uptrends.The rest,XOM,BAC,Microsoft are also up. The rest of the 22 topping patterns are down. Potentially not good.

DG

Anyone that takes solace in this rally being "corrective" in nature is a FOOL.

Who said anything about "taking solace" (who really gives a sh!t about "solace"? What are you, some kind of writer for Hallmark Cards?) in anything?

JT

That's RIGHT DG.

No one cares about whether or not a wave pattern is "corrective" or "impulsive" BUT YOU!!!


DG

JT,

In case you didn't notice, being that you're an idiot and all, I was responding to someone who actually did care. Cared enough, in fact, to make the claim that it was IMPULSIVE. I didn't just post that chart out of the blue.

You moron.

Seriously, are you this stupid in real life or just online? Holy crap.

Ed

These late afternoon fades are really getting irritating. Greece old news, banks all heeled up per Timmy....Heck unemployement getting better in 9 states, this puppy should be making new highs, wtf...I'm going to be realy mad if it closes down on the day.

vipul garg

Michael,
it had looked good the last time , the very reason i had traded it.
i havenot been following it but since you mentioned, saw it again today and its smoking.
great if you are holding it.

back in delhi, i call all such stocks 'operator' stocks where an interested party or fund really makes the most of the fact that index is rising in small cap stocks.

Ed

Did anyone notice there seem to be some rather aggressive OTM put options being bought towards the close in some decent size? I just happened to notice that some May SPY puts I had bought earlier in the day were trading higher despite the SPZ's being higher...VIX was up, but I noticed some decent sized put buying after I investigated a bit....Lots of volume in QQQQ puts late. Is this Goldman getting ready to let some air out?

Too much

Good evening, Roger is my son. Roger is affected by severe mental illness since he was 6. Since time, he's forecasting a lot of events, that never occurred. Then, be indulgent with him please. Thanks again.

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