search elliott


  • Google
Share/Bookmark

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

FlagCounter

  • Where From?
    free counters
Related Posts with Thumbnails

« Lighting a Fire Under the Bull | Main | Weekend Rant »

Wednesday, March 03, 2010

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Anon

Now I know why it felt like I should be selling some gold this morning.

Roger D.

Maybe going nut's in Euro's but not much in USD's

Michael

For those that have been trading this market on a daily basis, one can't help but be impressed with the commodity and energy stocks that have rallied sharply over the past week . . .That having been said, there is a bit of a reversal going on here after 2PM Eastern in these names, with many well off their highs and acting quite "heavy".

Milen

HI to all,
Last month I was thinking about end of (B) wave of a potential "expanding flat", but last few weeks the price beets around the bush, squiggles around. "Bullish balls on fire":). See my post about Gold. Thanks.

Mr. Panic

Wow, Neely needs to retract his stance on gold fast. But this is the type of sentiment I am looking for to enter a gold short. Until gold surpasses its mid January peak, no one can call for a blow off run. Look at the commodity currency ETFS FXC (Canadaian),FXa (Aussie); they've blown off on exhaution gaps the last two days; EEM has gapped up four days in a row; these moves are not sustainable.
Gold will collapse with the stock market; it has been funded by the carry trade and the unwinding of the carry trade will collapse the currencies,emerging markets and commodities.
By the way, there is another trading day cycle today that has marked the March 2009lows,July lows,May highs and every significant turn since then and it looks like it is taking effect. George Lindsay has also postulated final highs are marked by a low-low-high cycle which would be the case here (especially you use an even larger trading day cycle which hits the July,November lows)
Weekly reversal is in play.

Milen

Sure, the Gold will collapse.. but after reaching those highly speculative levels as $1280-$1320 per ounce.
Let the force be with you.

DG

these moves are not sustainable.

Nevermind a red close, the IWM has not been in the red for even a single tick during the three cash sessions this week!

mr. panic

Well, the Russell didn't paint a nice candle today. But look at FXC: it's near major resistance and in an extended parabolic move. Gold is only up $6 with the euro and pound both up big. Doesn't make sense does it? Gold with the same topping doji as every other index today.

Michael

NYSE A/D Line was still decently positive at 2276 vs 1529

Tremendous volatility in the COAL, MINING, and ENERGY names today. Just take a look at an intra-day chart of CLF.

"Adult Swim Only"

:)

Michael

Chart of NYSE Cummulative A/D line blasting to new highs for the move:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3732280

Scroll down to Chart #4

David

nice post yelnick...

i have posted an update on the eur/usd trade:

http://www.tradeyourwayout.com/2010/03/eurusd-update-240min-chart.html

and the spx for anyone that is interested:

http://www.tradeyourwayout.com/2010/03/spx-update-60min-almost-there.html

Roger D.

Gold usually spikes when people are scared and the primary motivator is inflationary expectations. In 2002 gold hit a low when deflation was a real threat in USD terms. I see nothing to indicate a hyperinflationary threat currently.

This market continues to flash warning signs of a historic top and Gold will collapse with it.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/52c77591-462a-44bf-92db-67e869c07ec6

IBM appears to have topped yesterday and continues to impulse lower.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/334ae80f-3703-4bd2-9007-507897551dc6

IBM Monthly

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/bee68ba2-e0e7-41e8-8a50-d43a678cc4e2

Roger

Roger D.

The current ES 60 minute chart

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/90d45b57-7940-4416-816e-ed60a26ce4fb

Anon

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/economics/list-of-national-debt-by-country/

Need I say more?

David

i have posted an alternate count for the spx should we break the 1150 area... comments welcome :-)

http://www.tradeyourwayout.com/2010/03/alternate-view-spx-weekly-chart.html

twitter.com/Frac_Man

Gold is enjoying a turn , period

No one knows when the top will arrive.

Sending this from my Iphone cool !

Ant

Anon

Thanks for the info - I believe that this info though tells only part of the story. in Australia, for example, we sold off the family silver to pay down public debt and now this is on the rise again, but low in reltive terms. But the private sector (aka mums and dads) have borrowed enormously against the values of their homes (which apparently, well in Australia, never go down)such that a combination of debt would put Australia right up there with the best of em. I often wonder whether we are indeed the "lucky country" or just playing russina rouleete like everyone else and it is just a matter of time

joe

I have no idea why anyone in their right mind would look at gold - none at all.

When it was 300 bucks an ounce - it was understandable -but not now.

Maybe that is just me. So by all means, bid my gold up.

You know Michael - you are so swift to promote energy names - you be careful when the "dog wags its tail" here. You think you know something about it - well, maybe you find out the hard way that you don't.

Joe

joe

Hope you are doing well Yelnik.

Joe

Glenn Loser Neely

Where is the Neely Shill today?

Is he in his McDonald's job?

I hear that DG is short the Mc Donald's stock because he hates his job.

Glenn Loser Neely

nspolar

Neely bullish on gold for a final 'E'. For how many times is this now that he is calling for an 'E' top in gold? Must be the third at least.

But if he is wrong enough he then extends his E to an F and G, and is sure not to ever note the previous wave forecast. Then if that doesn't cut it, to an H and an I, and then yacks about Neowave rules and reverse alteration and all that. Now if he ain't playing with da suckers who is? What a hoot Neely has turned into.

We should thus go down sooner as opposed to later. Like within a few days, maybe even start tomorrow.

Imo watch the Trannies and crud oil. Oil futs are in a setup that could see selling for months, until the opposite side of speculation really takes hold. Hydrocarbon production (including crud) is ramping up globally, just as global demand is slackening. And there are no less believers today in a shortage of energy and peak oil, than there was months ago. Big oil no less is leading the charge. Buffet turned buffoon for a while and got sucked in at the top too. Will it be COP to 20 or to even 10?

Funny thing, I have not read one peak oil prediction from anyone who knows shitola about the oil business, and I have read several. How do I know this? Because I know a bit about the oil business. Yet all the lemmings grab on like it has to be fact.

There are two sides of the Internet ... one being the plus side of all the information communicated and made available, the other all the crapola spewed out at the same time. I had a little problem to investigate today, which was to determine if my co could burn JETA (near kerosene) in an old diesel engine. Well I was looking through various fuel specs, etc., etc. and then I decided to also do some googling. First thing I came across on a forum was No you can not burn kerosene in a diesel engine, because it burns hotter than diesel. It will burn the engine up. This was followed by a comment about what a load a crap that was, as diesel has more energy per unit volume. Well the second guy had it right, but the point is the Internet is inundated with a lot of crap. How are we to know? Read Yelnick maybe (jiving ya Yeknick ... you do post a lot of good stuff)? Subscribe to Prechter and Neely?

Oh by the way dollar has started a nice apparent channel and is not far from the bottom trendline, and Neely calls for a blow-off in POG. Maybe instead we see ole clown dollar continue upward, until it reaches the 100 vicinity. The historical multiplier between the dollar and gold is near 4. Let me see, is 4 X 100 = 400? If so there will be dead gold bugs all over the planet.

nspolar

Chris

NDX observation - The top was on 11 JAN at 1897, the bottom occurred on 5 FEB at 1713 - 19 days. Tomorrow will be 19 trading days since the bottom.

Roger D.

Mark,

here are the other charts,1929

I also posted a comment here:

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/03/a-little-light-for-a-first-of-the-month-monday-pop.html#comments


http://content.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/f846a34d-2d8d-47b6-b6a6-c0bd3398cdf9/2010-03-03_2041.png


http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/52c77591-462a-44bf-92db-67e869c07ec6

yelnick

Joe, nice to hear from you. I am in NYC, first at a board meeting and then discussing a satellite deal. Good thing the market is relatively quiet as I will be sparsely posting until I return. I wonder if this market will do a triple top before falling? It would start with the S&P meandering back to 1150.

CO

Hey GLN

Do you ever post anything that's market related?
Why don't you piss off to another blog and annoy people there if you haven't got anything market related to add. The "Loser" in your name is very apt.

I'm not a big Neely fan either; don't think the guy could pick his nose properly, let alone the direction of the market.

BTW, nice posts of late Yelnick.

CO

nspolar

CO

No offense but I think GLN's posts are market related. All part of the noise to let us know what he thinks of a market maker like Neely. Just like mine or yours or anyone elses. And w/r to sentiment this is all part of the bag, just as all the parisitic Neely and Prechter followers are as well. I.e. you know who.

Ultimately over the LT I think this market could still be in a secular bull, albeit if it is it could likewise be in cyclical bear within the secular bull. If that is the case we will see nearly all yanked by their chains, especially parasites like Prechter and Neely. Parasites attract more parasites, so the P and N followers would get balls busted as well.

The worst enemy of an ewaver is 'me, myself and I', i.e. guys like Neely and Prechter think they are so frigging smart they forget they themselves are subject to the same psychological pitfalls of the masses, yet maybe even more so. They think they are so right, and if the market works as it should, it will at times make them so wrong.

If one of those times is coming up, we may within a year see the buy of a life time. This would be followed by a speculative blow off to make what we have seen so far look like childs play. Based on all the speculators still floating about, and following/buying up chit from the Prechter's and Neely's, as well as pumping der chit, it all seems plausible. All meaning we have a long ways to go, and have merely hit a decent bump in the road to a bigger top.

So as suggested earlier maybe one wants to look first for a LT count that is in some ways quite different than either Prechter or Neelies, which are similar. The LT is more important, but from that we would then go for a ST count to fit within the scheme suggested above. And we may have to open our eyes to do this.

Anything is possible here.

From all this sentiment I might mention there are two things that really stick out to me. The first is all the LT bearishness, mainly w/r to the US of A. It is everywhere. If anyone has the slightest bit of contrarian bone in their body, they should be able to notice the same. I have been around a bit, the status of the US of A is a relative thing, and somehow I do not agree with all that bearishness. I in fact see the possibility of a lot of opportunity, not tomorrow maybe, but a bit further down the road.

The other thing that sticks out to me is that the economy in some ways is not that bad. There still seems to be a lot of money sloshing around. I don't think the present conditions are anything like the great depression (but I did not live back in that era, so how can I know for sure), and it seems unlikely they will be such by the time the bottom is reached. Deals are being made and done regularly here. Big deals. And then I look to sports, like pro sports and especially F1. Money has not dried up much if at all in those areas.

Maybe there is a 3rd thing ... boards, blogs and such like this are everywhere. If things were so bad, I don't think this would be. I smell global speculation, not too far down the road. And we should all know what that would mean.

IMO.

nspolar

DG

And w/r to sentiment this is all part of the bag, just as all the parisitic Neely and Prechter followers are as well. I.e. you know who.

Gee, if your rants weren't so incoherent and didn't show a complete lack of understanding of Neely's market views, I'd be insulted.

If one of those times is coming up, we may within a year see the buy of a life time. This would be followed by a speculative blow off to make what we have seen so far look like childs play.

This is exactly what I mean about not even showing the slightest understanding of Neely's longer-term view. The top he sees forming now and the bottom it should lead to in anywhere from 1 to 4 years is merely wave 4 of his longer-term Impulse starting back in the 1700's and his forecast of Dow 100K by 2060 at the latest would conform to your "speculative blow off".

When your criticizing someone, it's PROBABLY a good idea to know what the person you're criticizing is ACTUALLY saying. Otherwise, you come off looking like a clown.

But if he is wrong enough he then extends his E to an F and G, and is sure not to ever note the previous wave forecast. Then if that doesn't cut it, to an H and an I, and then yacks about Neowave rules and reverse alteration and all that. Now if he ain't playing with da suckers who is? What a hoot Neely has turned into.

I've got the data on Neely's track record and he beats the market while taking limited risk, so you can talk all you want about "suckers" and him being a "hoot", but trading results are what matters, not opinions.

Hank Wernicki

Thursday :

VERY BULLISH

DG

Short the SPY with a stop at today's high is a good risk/reward trade.

DG

Short the SPY with a stop at today's high is a good risk/reward trade.

On a break of 112, that is.

Anon

Thanks to whomever was holding my gold for me.

Mamma Boom Boom

>Thursday :

VERY BULLISH

Posted by: Hank Wernicki | Thursday, March 04, 2010 at 04:25 AM<

?

Roger D.

Thursday :

"VERY BULLISH"

Both equities and Gold in USD terms look to be topping.

Anon

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Consumer+confidence+edges+higher+Canada+poll+says/2640492/story.html

"With three-quarters of similar consumer confidence results, we're back up to the relatively high levels that we consistently recorded throughout 2006 and 2007. The U.S. is continuing an upward trend, but still lags well behind Canada and is still not what it was before the economic crisis,” Doug Anderson, senior vice-president of Harris/Decima, said in a release."

Roger D.


--------------------
News Alert: Pending home sales fall 7.6 percent in Jan.
10:10 AM EST Thursday, March 4, 2010
--------------------

The number of buyers who agreed to purchase previously occupied homes fell
sharply in January, a sign that demand for housing is sinking this winter,
especially after stormy weather hit much of the country.

The National Association of Realtors says its seasonally adjusted index of sales
agreements fell 7.6 percent from December to a January reading of 90.4. It was
the lowest reading since last April.

Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected the index would rise to
97.6. The index is considered a barometer for future sales because typically
there is a one- to two- month lag between a signed sales contract and a
completed deal. A reading of 100 is equal to the average level of sales activity
in 2001, when the index started.



The housing numbers continue to stink. The Fed's balance sheet is filled with litterly tons of this shit along with banks. Real estate prices continue down under the weight of short sales.

This is the guillotine ready to cut loose, All the rest of the rah,rah is petrified dog crap.

Roger D.

The great levitation....

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/12baed35-445f-484b-b6ee-34066e871304

Roger D.

IBM

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/8595924b-f807-4acf-8615-3bc95edcfbc2

Webber

4 degrees of 1-2 punches (68, 78, 70 and 42% retracements). Knockout coming.

Webber

1120.3 is the 61.8% fib retrace and has held this market for 3 days. Once it breaks...

Roger D.

Webber,

The Jan 19th top took 4 days, Friday will be 4. IBM looks to be completeing a W2 and has not hit it's .382 yet but could break at anytime.

Roger

anonymous

How are all of the PERMA-BEARS doing today???

:)

Webber

Another killer PPT push, overbought like hell!

anonymous

"Short the SPY with a stop at today's high is a good risk/reward trade."

Posted by: DG | Thursday, March 04, 2010 at 07:37 AM

Stopped out again on the short side, eh DG?

DG

"On a break of 112, that is.

Posted by: DG | Thursday, March 04, 2010 at 07:39 AM "

Did we break 112? There's your answer dumbass.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/a1817537-6e2c-476e-8eee-872de4a17490

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/d49f3e01-69ea-4cb0-bd3c-8218281f8f45

Hank Wernicki

Friday :

Bullish

Hank Wernicki

Mamma Boom Boom

Dow rallied 50 points today < that's bullish for a day trader

:-)

???

Roger D.

Should see a reversal Friday unless they get high on the fumes and they give it the last rites on Monday.

Roger D.

And here's the Dow, now nothing says it can't go up further,but I expect it's done.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/763d442a-b393-42b9-99c8-2c4e6119a04f

Roger

Mamma Boom Boom

>Mamma Boom Boom

Dow rallied 50 points today < that's bullish for a day trader

Posted by: Hank Wernicki | Thursday, March 04, 2010 at 12:59 PM<

If you say so, Hank, it's your money.

The comments to this entry are closed.