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« Market Melt-Up Risks Melt Down? | Main | Bond Market Forcing Fed's Hand »

Friday, April 02, 2010


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Dude just look at payroll number, try to post another topic

forget about all the nay Sayers! Market is hitting 1250 on Monday


Market is hitting 1250 on Monday. Maybe. And maybe the headline figures 'look' good, but I don't think the fundamentals have improved that much ...
- Payrolls rose by 162,000 last month, less than anticipated. Note the word 'less'.
- The March increase included 48,000 temporary workers hired by the government to help conduct the 2010 census. Not sustainable jobs.
- The so-called underemployment rate -- which includes part- time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking -- increased to 16.9 percent from 16.8 percent.
I wouldn't be having an orgasm about these numbers.


I used nay sayers , those are headlines not realmney? 1250


The gushing over an $800 billion stimulus creating a net 114k jobs is interesting. ES in a rising wedge the last 6 days. Bonds poised for a lot of volatility. Thirty year broke lower from a rising wedge but hasn't retested the break. Probably the best indicator will be how does the bond market react to my first point. Next week will likely be one of the most volatile in a long while.

Mamma Boom Boom

>Dude just look at payroll number, try to post another topic<

The TRUTH shall set you FREE! Private payroll was up 123,000. It takes 200,000 just to break even. That is a 77,000 deeper hole than we had before.

"This is where black bear gather to feed on runs of pink, Coho, and Chum salmon, as they head upstream to spawn."


News Flash.......Primary 3 down will begin when the sun burns up all the hydrogen, and helium.
I think they finally have this one nailed down!!


Lol, come you all idiots including yelnick DOW will bemaking fun of you all

Does stock market really care about unemployed people? They anyways don't have money

what it cares is no further job loss of employed people, as they will keep supporting market at these levels

until rookies unemployed start mega wave :3 of wave 5



No need to attack Yelnick. His site offers other insight that is very interesting to read.
The above post about Primary 3 is a belated April Fools joke, and not meant as investment advice. So please don't buy tons of puts on the S&P unless trading is taking place on a spaceship a long ways from earth's orbit.



I've followed you bond posts closely for the past few months trying to square the circle.

If you buy this Prechter arguement here:

Then isn't the following also true:

We have had low interest rates mainly because we have run a huge trade deficit with China. China can't spend the money we send them fast enough, so they have to find a home for it. Our debt markets here in the USA are the only ones with enough liquidity to to meet China's needs. Asset bubbles (exactly what Obama is trying to fuel today) in housing provided the consumer fuel to make those purchases from China.

My question is this:

If you buy the above, and agree that today the consumer is deleveraging, house prices have fallen off a cliff and equity markets are down, then why have interest rates not sky rocketed????

Lost in space,

Mamma Boom Boom

Wake up sid

Excellent idea. Try it.

Wave Rust

Surprise! to all you deer caught in the headlights!

Another rate hike in sea of exhuberant bears and bulls. :)

USD rocket ,,, all aboard?

FOMC surprise meeting on Monday, April 5th at 11:30.

Never fade the Fed



I believe that Morgan Stanley is looking for 2% GDP in Q1 and 5.5% long bond rates!



Take a look at this chart of the ECRI Index. It is current and does not appear to be turning down as in the chart that you posted.


Hock, you asked the question of why interest rates haven't skyrocketed, and the answer is QE

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