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« GDP Bends the V-Shaped Recovery Curve | Main | Market Technicals Signal Sell In May »

Friday, April 30, 2010


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Yelnick, I'm gonna say I think one should have sold in April. April 26th to be exact. I went short earlier, basis well known by now.

All you ewave gurus have been off, way off. You are included in this. And oh, by the way, Kenny had some less than stellar things to say about your ewave. I think Kenny was dead nuts on.

In regard to all the ewave gurus being off, this is likely to continue, i.e. the trend could be your friend.

So about the end May ... it will likely be time to buy, if one is a trader. The buy will be for the rebound. If one is not a rapid fire trader, then fine, sit tight. Come about end of July, lights out hopefully.

Did you know that the 26th was a Merriman turn day? I'd say he hit it dead nuts. You need to pay more attention, but then again you can always plagarize from your peeps, w/o acknowledge. You are pretty good at that. Is that a Silicon Valley cultural thing? Up here where I abode you would get yer nuts cut off for that. That is if you still have them.

Here you go Yelnick, a freebie:

"Short-Term Geocosmics

We are now right in the middle of the three-week Mercury retrograde time band of April 19-May 11. As stated last week, “The middle of that period can also coincide with a market reversal, +/- 2 trading days. That equates to Friday, April 30. The rule is that any market that did not reverse around the time of the retrograde date will usually have a sudden turn around the middle of the retrograde period. It is very rare that a market makes it all the way through Mercury retrograde without a reversal of some importance.” As we look at various markets, we will note that currencies against the U.S. Dollar have been in a down trend and U.S. Treasuries and Gold in an uptrend. However, in the case of Gold, it did make a reversal from a low right at the time of the retrograde, so it need not be affected by the mid-Mercury reversal phenomenon.

Another geocosmic factor to watch for this week is the entrance of heliocentric (not geocentric) Mercury into Sagittarius, May 6-17. This is a signature of sharp price moves, especially in precious metals, and usually upwards, for at least 3-9 trading days. Usually it is not so bullish for stocks.

Longer-Term Thoughts

On the basis of Financial Astrology, one has to question whether or not Financial Regulatory Reform will be passed before the end of May, or even before the end of July, if at all. The Senate hearings of last week, and the SEC charges of fraud against Goldman Sachs, have all occurred during Mercury retrograde. This is a time when plans are proposed, but require some significant adjustments before passage. Or, if no changes are made before passage, then it turns out that the agreement does not work out the way it was intended, and there are harsh consequences to bear for the lack of correct foresight

But more important than Mercury retrograde (to a Financial Astrologer) is the fact that four of the five major (slower moving) planets in our solar system (including Pluto) will be in early cardinal signs in late July. Right now three are still in the later degrees of mutable signs. Cardinal signs—Aries, Cancer, Libra, and Capricorn—are the signs of action. Mutable signs—Gemini, Virgo, Sagittarius, and especially Pisces—are the signs of ideas and plans being hatched. Think of mutable signs as indicators of debate and discussion, of fine tuning something before it is launched. The launch itself is cardinal. But during the debate period, sides can become very polarized as a middle ground or compromise is sought. If attained, then the project gets life as the planets move into cardinal signs, If compromise and a middle ground are not achieved by the time planets go into cardinal signs, then the polarity escalates into dramatic action, even conflict and/or war.

In late May and early June, Jupiter and Uranus both move from Pisces into Aries. In late July, Saturn moves back in the cardinal sign of Libra from mutable Virgo. They will each be within a couple of degrees from a T-square to Pluto, already in early Capricorn. In terms of the political climate, this is apt to be a very hot summer. At its best, innovative and new solutions will be proposed that will end the gridlock over the acceptance of many bills before Congress, like Financial Regulatory and Immigration Reform (remember, the USA Jupiter is also in early Cancer, which pertains to relations with other nations, and it is being hit in grand square by the Cardinal Climax planets). In terms of weather conditions, it may also be a very hot summer, for there are no planets in water signs after late July through much of August (no water signs, no water). In terms of stock markets, equity values may explode upwards like a hot air balloon (or bubble). A lot of money can be made, and lot can be lost this summer, depending on one’s skills as a market timer.

Which brings it all back around to the value of Financial Astrology. For despite the fact that it is not a 100% correlation to stock market highs and lows, there is still nothing more reliable or more consistent as a leading indicator of reversals in the majority of financial markets that I have found through my years of personal experience. Did any other market timing study correctly forecast last week’s turning point of April 23-26 as a high in the U.S. stock markets? Financial Astrology did it via geocosmic aspects as well as lunar cycles. Financial Astrology (in fact, all of astrology) is literally a gift from heaven."

Besides financial astrology, which one has to use fuzzy logic to interpret, you might spend some time looking at cycle stuff. A lot of cycles imho are coming to a confluence here, about in concert with what Merriman discusses. An excellent freebie site imo is none other than good ole honest Tim Wood. I do not subscribe but I like that fellow. He seems of solid character and I like that. He does not have the characteristics of a born and bred seller, as one poster labeled Neely (I agree).

As one could deduce from my posts and 'real time' trades, the commoditiy cycle is what I am most interested in. All the charts I follow tell me a commoditiy cycle high is ending (an approximate 80 week cycle high, all I will say).

Time. It is all about time. Time is more important than price. But time is a tough nut to crack. Or is it timing?

And GOLD? What about GOLD?



great post yelnick,


my e-wave calls have been pretty good as of late... so i can't agree with you about EW not working well in this environment... people always look for excuses rather than saying that their count it plain wrong (in my humble opinion)... feel free to check out my site...


Well done Yelnick. Poo all around IMO. The PPT can assist in slowing the impending fall, but gravity always rules. The stimulus is running out and the consumer is not coming back with any vengeance. EWT had no chance against this rigged POS market going up. Even though I despise EWT and think it has done more damage to those that follow it than good, I actually think it will be more accurate in a fairly traded tanking market. Looking forward to technical and China post. Keep up the great work.


nspolar are you familiar with this guy?

If 31 points is a big drop in his playbook then maybe I should have covered my shorts after 3:30 yesterday.

A rhetorical question, regardless of the merits of Mr. Pasavento's predictive abilities some dumpage is due now that enough fresh bull meat is on board. And if Monday does not follow the bullish script for a second week in a row then a few might begin to smell smoke in that crowded theater.


robert, no I was not familiar ... thanks. I will start to follow that site and fellow a bit. Good info.

I am looking for a 'C' down, in nearly every indice. My main shorting vehicle is the $DJUSBM. It is an excellent indice to play the commodity cycles with, and it also has a decent representation for gold. So you get that too. The wave count and fib hit on this indice seems to be one of the more clearer ones around.

Any 'C' down should start with some emphasis. Any 'C' should be a 5 waver per my methods. One wave should extend. I am looking for a long Chinese water torture type of C here, but does not have to be.

The best cycle analyst I know of (a personal acquaintance) uses financial astrology in his work, as one of the components. But only one. His charts shows an uncalibrated low, an all time low, in May (this month). I believe many financial astrologists see the same thing here. So the stars and planets are apparently doing something special here.

But following a low this month, the fellow I mention shows one hell of an apparent rebound into end of July, starting near end of May or early June.

I am not counting on anything from anyone, nor am I counting on anything for sure, but hoping the rebound is a counter trend 'ii'. And I am with your fellow in that if this is a major shift we should start off with something on the order of a 3 week minimum down turn. So next week is very important.

But back to the possible 'ii', the apparent A down in the $DJUSBM, was downward sloping. As such at that time it was best to just stay short this indice during the ii as well.

I like to pester Yelnick ... but I come here, and he does do a lot of good work. His gold/euro chart he recently posted really caught my eye. Going to look at that a bit. Looked like it was going parabolic. We all know what will happen at some point. In dollars it appears to me gold is nearing the end of a very major cycle.

I don't pertain to be an expert on cycles, but I am following it more and more and trying to come up with my own tools and thoughts. Tim Wood and I are in agreement at least that the market top was in 2007. A big bitch I have with guys like Prechter and Neely is that they rely primarily only on one tool. I followed Neely for a while .. I would never ewave gold, without doing the same for the dollar as well as the miner indices. It is exceedingly difficult to fit all this together, but if one only uses one component of all that is available, I think one is destined to get into trouble.

And I think some of the cycle analysts are on to something here.



david, looks like you are looking for $1600 dollars or there abouts on gold eh?



"The PPT can assist in slowing the impending fall, but gravity always rules. The stimulus is running out and the consumer is not coming back with any vengeance. EWT had no chance against this rigged POS market going up. Even though I despise EWT and think it has done more damage to those that follow it than good, I actually think it will be more accurate in a fairly traded tanking market." - Shanky

I call TOTAL BS on this guy.

He's been "interpreting" and embracing Elliott Wave for the last 9 months and has been a complete PERMA-BEAR. Anyone that has watched this guy post on Kenny's Blog knows exactly what I am talking about. In fact, Kenny even kicked him off for constantly "pimping" his blog via Kenny's site.

This guy "Shanky" does nothing more than blame everyone else ( the Fed, the Govt. the Plunge Protection Team, Goldman Sachs, etc. ) for his total INABILITY to make money in an uptrend. It's downright comical to listen to him embrace the CONSPIRACY THEORY of the day, week, and month with one profanity laced market "manipulation" tirade after another.

He calls himself an investment advisor, yet his blog is filled with so much idiotic, immature, and naive "rants" while getting drunk at the Jersey Shore that it becomes pretty obvious that this is yet another college kid playing on the Internet.

When he gets tired of his profanity laced political rants, he makes an attempt to draw a few trendlines here and there on a chart, highlighting what he believes to be "key" divergences. I suggest that this guy wouldn't know how to draw a trendline if his life depended on it.

Buyer beware.


Is Obama Right? Is Sarah Right?

Interesting, we have probably the largest spill in history within the US Of A going on, and no mention here.

Well imho both Obama and Sarah are right.

We need to drill baby drill.
We need to open up more areas for drilling.
We need to stop here and reassess, as we do need to drill safely. We can too.

It is my suspicion that this blow out was almost assuredly caused by human error. Why? Because that is the norm these days in the oil patch for things like this, especially in this area. Things like BOP's are designed very well, so well the equipment rarely fails. But human error, usually related to piss poor organizational structure, can set off a chain of events that allows a catastrophe to occur.

I will also add"

BP is the shittiest ran oil company in the business.
Sarah I believe considered taking their operating license away in AK, when they had the big spill here. She should have, as the events that led to that were beyond comprehension and incompetence. It was a mistake on her part to not do this. The Texas City explosions and all the related factors were likewise beyond comprehension. I read through all the poop, both cases. Basically this company is so bad I question if they should even be allowed to operate in this country.

I could immediately tell this leak was way more than initially stated. I am almost certian BP knew too, but purposedly lied. 1000 barrels a day is nothing really, and sheens the size of what immediately formed can not come about from a 1000 BPD leak. I would not be surprised if the figure goes up above 10000 BPD, before said and done.

It is no accident that this accident happened with BP at the helm.

BP was the first big oil to go whole hog contract. They think they save money this way, but it just dums their whole internal company down to the point that no one is responsible and accountable for anything .... blame it on the contractor. Poor ole contractor Jose takes the shit for everything. They actually tried to shift responsibility to the contractors in the Texas City explosion, but I think the state of Texas and OSHA took them in the back room and had a little discussion. There was a very subte attemtp to do the same thing in this blow out accident, but it subsided quickly.

In the end this is going to set deepwater and other offshore drilling in this country back years. A sad state of affairs, in particular at BP.

I hope Obama and co sticks BP's arse so hard it will nearly put them out of business.



"All you ewave gurus have been off, way off. You are included in this. And oh, by the way, Kenny had some less than stellar things to say about your ewave. I think Kenny was dead nuts on." - nspolar

How ironic.

Of all the E-Wavers and Perma-Bears to use to blast Yelnick with . . . Kenny hasn't been able to make a dime over the last 12 months. He's gotten so desperate that he's chastized his "followers" for not hitting the "donation" button enough on his blog. He's attacked and blamed everyone that he can get his hands on . . . from Prechter and Hochberg at EWI to other more mundane E-Wave bloggers. The guy has NO CREDIBILITY whatsoever. How he makes enough money to live on is beyond comprehension. He's missed the entire rally and sounded like a "broken" clock for weeks and months on end.

Nspolar, if you actually think that Kenny was "dead-nuts on" . . . I've got a bridge down in Arizona that I'd like to sell you.

I wish there was an IGNORE button on Yelnick's blog because you've made new "lows" with your drivel and idiocy.



"It is my suspicion that this blow out was almost assuredly caused by human error. Why? Because that is the norm these days in the oil patch for things like this, especially in this area. Things like BOP's are designed very well, so well the equipment rarely fails." - nspolar

Ummm... if there is an explosion it is quite possible that a BOP would fail. Shoddy "cementing" by a Haliburton crew may have contributed to the explosion.

"Oil services contractor Halliburton Inc. said in a statement Friday that workers had finished cementing the well's pipes 20 hours before the rig went up in flames. Halliburton is named as a defendant in most of the more than two dozen lawsuits filed by Gulf Coast people and businesses claiming the oil spill could ruin them financially. Without elaborating, one lawsuit filed by an injured technician on the rig claims that Halliburton improperly performed its job in cementing the well, "increasing the pressure at the well and contributing to the fire, explosion and resulting oil spill."

Remote-controlled blowout preventers designed to apply brute force to seal off a well should have kicked in. But they failed to activate after the explosion.

Scott Bickford, a lawyer for several Deepwater Horizon workers who survived the blast, said he believes a "burp" of natural gas rose to the rig floor and was sucked into machinery, leading to the explosion."


Michael, shoddy cementing is 'human error', my opinion. An explosion would usually be the result of a kick back that should not have occurred, had all the pressures, so on and so forth been controlled and dealt with properly.

A BOP is just a safety device that should not have to be used, provided all issues are handled properly along the way.

I do not know what personnel BP had on board. But they should have had personnel on board with the expertise to direct all the work, carried out by their contractors.

I doubt they did.

Oil companies, especially most of big oil, has gutted their internal departments of expertise over the last several years. We can contract it is the norm these days.

I am sure there is a lot of finger pointing going on at the moment, between BP, Haliburton, and Transocean.



As a sidenote about all the contracting in the oil business, it is also accompanied by graft. The term crony capitalism was used by Yelnick recently I believe, and I think it apt to describe some of the contractor relationships in the oil business.

It took ole AK Senator Ted Stevens down. He got off on technicalities, but the rest of VECO did not. VECO is gone.

I like to follow military history.

It is of interest to me to seemingly note how contracting has apparently exploded in the military, and even in the fighting of wars. I think Cheney was instrumental in this, maybe from his Haliburton days.

I in particular question the wisdom of heavy contracting for military related issues. Is their crony capitalism there too? One would certainly suspect so.




Contracting in the military has gone on for decades. You can follow the announcement of contracts on a daily basis via the DoD website.
This is nothing new. Moreover, the auditing of military contracts has gone back 60 years via the Defense Contract Audit Agency (DCAA), which consists of 4,000 people located at more than 300 field audit offices.


Michael, yes certainly, no doubt. But are you saying there is no more today than say 20 years ago? It appears to me from what I read there is more, but I admit I am not on the inside.

I do also respect to military issues meet up with folk on the equipment side, and I get the same impressions from discussions that much more contracting is used today than in years past.

In Big Oil contracting has also been around as well, for years, but it has really ratcheted up since the late eighties and early nineties. This was a tough time to make money in the oil patch. Big Oil has in many cases since all this started assumed they no longer need certain types of internal competence. They believe they can just contract it, when/where needed.



nspolar, welcome back, but I must ask if you really meant to accuse me of plagarism? It doesn't do me much good to plagiarize, since the whole point of this site is to comment on others rather than add yet another wavist to the morass. As you may have noticed, I do not run my own charts, but comment on others. The couple of times I have experimented with pencasting of charts, to explain not count waves. And then for readers I try to summarize what the consensus (if there is one) is predicting.

I reference Kenny among others when I think it is merited, and then I analyze. His expanding ending diagonal set me off in an investigation, and after spending four posts on it, reading the literature and gleaning the latest perspective from Neely and Hochberg, I concluded it is not a proper wave structure. As it turned out, his structure did not predict the course of the market, so I do not know how you can call him "dead nuts on."

Apr26 may turn out to be a top of sorts, and we might have a B wave down in May with a final zigzag to be the summer rally, as I think you are opining - a scenario I commented on several times previously as fitting the wave structure as well as the proverbial "summer rally". Right now we cannot be sure, but we might have a good read on Mon/Tues.

I split my Friday post into two to add a bit to the technical discussion, and it will repost late tonight your time, when the quiet aurora may give you a final glimpse before the late nights of summer.


nspolar, welcome back, but I must ask if you really meant to accuse me of plagarism?

Yes I did and it is why I came back. I was pissed off enough at something you did I had to get it out. Technically it may not be plagarism, due to the nature of this blog, but similar.

It is your blog, you can do what you want. But you can do a much better job of acknowledging to your peeps where some of the information you post comes from, especially if it came from one or more of your peeps.

That is my opinion Yelnick and I am sticking with it.

You do an excellent job of gathering and posting a lot of information. You are an information hound. But from my view you should recognize we all have egos and feelings, me and you included. If you take something from one of us, maybe me, maybe others, and do a big post on your own, you should give some recognition as to the source of the information, even though you do not have to do so. It is just the gentleman thing to do.

If you want to discuss more, we go offline.


Arch Crawford


Mercury must be in RETROGRADE because you aren't making any sense at all!



Congrats on your somewhat recent time of year award (thought I read that somewhere).

Am I going to make money because of this Mercury Retrograde biz? How many trading days do I have?

I am not into the details enough to know how powerful these planetary forces are, and thus how long they last.

I am a LEO, that is about all I know about it.




This oil spill is an embarrassment to the oil industry. BP from what I have read, as suspected, contracted nearly every body on the rig. Still have not concluded if they had any of their own drilling engineers on board.

I am reading this at the moment.

Repercussions ...w/o doubt.

It will also be interesting to see if insanity takes over, to clean up the spill. It more or less did in AK with the Exxon Valdez. On net they may have done more damage cleaning it up, than if they would have just let it be.

But AK was a fixed quantity of oil. No end in sight here.



This oil spill in the Gulf is really starting to get some legs. Having spent a fair amount of time (pre Katrina) in this part of the country I am disgusted with what this will do to the coastal ecosystem and everyone earning a living through its good graces.

It's hard to tell where the truth lies but I've read anywhere between 200K and 1M gallons of the stuff leaking every day. Now going with the lower figure we have 55 days before the Exxon Valdez gets knocked out of first place. Not to sound any conspiracy but this seems to be keeping the price temporarily elevated? All political waffling on drilling aside, why do I get the feeling as soon as this thing is capped price takes a major dump. I will stand humbly corrected and chastened if we get more than a throw over close above the next Fib number (89).


Am listening to this. From a man who was on the rig.



hey NS,

yeah i think gold will enter a bubble and run maybe even to the $2,200 mark before topping out.


Mauldin raises an interesting point regarding synthetic CDO's:

"How Should Our Institutions Invest?
However, the larger and far more critical question is, why were institutions buying synthetic CDOs in the first place? This is an investment that had no productive capital at work and no remotely socially redeeming value. It did not go to fund mortgages or buy capital equipment or build malls or office buildings. It seems to me there is a certain social responsibility when you have institutional capital and manage pensions. It's one thing to buy a gambling stock; it's quite another to be the gambler, especially if it is not your capital at risk, and by being a yield hog you increase your bonuses. The hedge funds were risking their capital. The institutions were risking other people's money. And let's be clear, the counterparties in the Goldman deal, at least, were very knowledgeable players. They knew exactly what they were buying."

First, it clarifies who was flucked-up enough to take the long side. It was people playing with other people's money, whose payout was a function of risk.

The comment highlights how far out of line Wall Street became chasing the big bonus. I think they will look back on it as a huge strateigic error. Government is no match for the likes of GS. They never will be and I think they know it. The only answer is to pen them in.




You would do well to spend more time looking at what MMs are doing then worrying about planetary retrogrades. Please note that cat piss trails have the same importance in the world of correlations as do retrogrades. Maybe we can use cat trails to confirm retrogrades. Whaddaya think?

It's Wave X for those that are confused.


It's Wave X for those that are confused.

Actually, it isn't wave-X, it's wave-(B).

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