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« The Skewed Triangle | Main | Inside the March Unemployment Report »

Monday, April 05, 2010

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Anon

Daneric ripping off the chart that I sent him over a year ago. I guess my channels weren't so "wrong" after all. What a thieving little pissant. If you follow him, you should know what you are getting.

His chart: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S7VH1QeuaZI/AAAAAAAAEpo/kL2-TVUo8jI/s1600/2010-04-01-PROPHET.png

My chart (note the date): http://tinyurl.com/yz6vad8

His reply email and my intro:

From: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Couple Charts
Date: Thu, 2 Apr 2009 20:26:52 -0400

I would say they are creative but likely wrong, They violate many basic tenets of EW theory such as channeling. I follow generally Robert Prechter's view of the long term wave count That I have posted from time to time.

I am open to other views, but as a member of EWI, their evidence is overwhelming and they present much more stuff than just price charts of the indexes to support their counts.

----- Original Message -----

To: [email protected]
Sent: Thursday, April 02, 2009 2:21 PM
Subject: Couple Charts

Daneric, really like your work and I would appreciate your comments on these charts.

The key one is the Dow of course. The others just add background how this may be the right count. This, at this point in time, would be my alternate count but I'm starting to favor it as I've had a nagging feeling that the principle of alternation may apply i.e. if wave 2 was indeed the Great Depression, then we are preparing for the Great Inflation that will be the 5th wave book end to wave 2. (Bernanke is going to make sure there is no deflation and perhaps he's going to be right beyond his wildest dreams).

Forgive the color of the USO chart as IB won't allow a change of the stock colors. Also, note that the 1929 high was actually a B wave throw over (even Elliott himself believed that) so my wave I is actually out of place as labelled.

All of this may also explain why we've had such a powerful move off the 666 low (perhaps a very fitting low if your religious). We may in fact be in 3 of 1 of V already where we only achieved a 23.6% retracement of wave 1 of 1 indicating the power of the next move.

This would all be consistent with the total devaluation of the US dollar and that would be consistent with how Rome was in its last days - devaluing its currency to sustain the crumbling regime.

All in all, pretty far fetched but then again so was 666 two years ago. Any comments you may have, in terms of what you can see in these charts and your own, would be appreciated.


Regards,

Glenn Loser Neely

DG's boyfriend (Neely) long??

You have to be kiddig... time to short this market!!
Long and bullish at the top!!
What a loser!!

We just need DG to defend his gay lover to have a double sell signal in place!!

I am shorting this market tomorrow morning!!


GLN

Dsquare

"unless you join Martin Armstrong in the bank-robbery conspiracy theory that TARP was one of several mechanisms used to bail out Goldman Sachs"

It's Goldman Sucks. And yes I do. Max Keiser says it best: Goldman Sacks are scum.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSwWy4E6I04

Dsquare

Jim Rogers disagrees: says Geitner Caused Crisis, Must Let Banks Fail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shUXP2VU6y8&feature=related

MHD

That's the answer for everything....just get a fire hose that shoots out money. A country gone mad!!!!!!

Mamma Boom Boom

>we should give the Fed a lot of credit for doing what Congress and the President fumbled badly: bailing out the banks.<

GAG! Cough! Damn, not a good way to start the day. Now I'm nauseated. Yuck.....

?

"Think about this: we could have used the rapid resolution process to avoid the Lehman bankruptcy, and possibly avoid a 500 pt meltdown in the S&P: between that fateful Friday night and the disatrous Monday morning, Lehman could have been completely recapitalized by eradicating equity, forcing unsecured creditors to become new equity, decreasing the value of the secured creditors to the impaired value of their security, and issuing new options to new management. A lot of work, sure, but by Monday morning, Lehman stays in business, and the complex counter-party risk would have stayed in place."

Yelnick,

The only problem I see with this is that so much debt was hidden by Lehman with the 105s. Not sure if it would have been that easy to do.

Michael

"The only problem I see with this is that so much debt was hidden by Lehman with the 105s. Not sure if it would have been that easy to do."

Exactly.

Bernanke allowed Lehman to fail because he believed Lehman to be insolvent as of September 8th, and giving Lehman a loan would have then been "lending into a run". Lehman had no collateral, and the "Repo 105" crap made this situation even more dire.

I believe that Paulson and Bernanke's claims that they had no legal authority to inject capital into Lehman (that authority came later via TARP) was bogus. They knew that Lehman was incredibly toxic, and I believe that they allowed it to fail hoping that the counter-party risk wouldn't be that devastating a factor. Perhaps they were also aware of the "Repo 105" stuff, and didn't want to be found, after-the-fact to have bailed-out a fraudulent company.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/why-the-u-s-balked-at-bailout-out-lehman/19399313/

cloudslicer

Has anybody looked at the wave count for oil?

This is my try at it:

Using $WTIC I see an impulse up from 35.13 in December 2008 to 73.90 June of 2009. Then an small impulse down to 58.72 July, then a long and very sloppy choppy move up move which appears to be a collection of 3 wave moves up and down which finally terminated in January 2010 and then an impulse down into 02/10. This whole mess from 06/09-02/10 looks like a large flat corrective wave.

I can count it as a B or 2. Now I am in a C or 3 up from the 02/10 lows. If its a C wave and A=C then around 108 appears to be be a good target (104 and change is a 61.8% retrace).

This lines up well with what I am seeing on bonds which appear to be discounting rising inflation as well as credit risk.

At a 100 dollars a barrel your looking at around $2.90 gallon on gasoline by the end of this summer.

My conjecture is that this move in gasoline/oil combined with the interest rate spike should terminate this primary off the 03/09 lows.

Michael

"At a 100 dollars a barrel your looking at around $2.90 gallon on gasoline by the end of this summer."

Depends on where you live.
In California, they've been at $3.05 for regular for the last 6 months.

yelnick

?, the recap of Lehman would have given it a balance sheet to handle the mess, meaning borrow again to stave off a second default.

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