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« Technical Indicators Hit Extremes | Main | Did FDR End the Great Depression? »

Thursday, April 15, 2010

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kim

Fracking [slang for hydraulic fracturing] did not find [led to] the fields, but made them commercially feasible by increasing the permeability around the well bore which would increase the inflow.

What really made the Marcellus formation shale play feasible was horizontal drilling. Where they kick out from a vertical borehole and then drill thousands of feet outward horizontally.This and the fracturing of the shale really causes a huge inflow of gas for the first two years before dropping off dramatically.

Michael

Agreed.

Horizontal Drilling and the new "Flex-Rigs" are what has made tapping into these new fields possible. The "fracking" has allowed the volume of production via this type of drilling to be huge. They go hand in hand.

NG land drillers that come to mind in this area are Helmrich & Payne (HP) and Patterson Energy (PTEN).

Patterson has no debt and a 1.4% dividend yield. It is an institutional "darling".

Here's a great primer on the Nat Gas Shale Fields:

http://www.naturalgasforamerica.com/2009/05/shale-gas-101/


Diamond Jim

A good post but reality is somewhat more complex. In a previous job I had access to a natural gas Honda Accord. The car drove perfectly but fillups were a problem. The infrastructure is almost wholly lacking for refills. In addition, the refills take a long time compared to regular petrol because of the high compression required. There are several real safety problems, especially for large trucks. The 'gas tank' itself is virtually impervious to impact, but leaks of gas from the piping network feeding the engine can easily occur. A natural gas flame burns hot and clear. You don't realize you are facing a wall of flame until the heat registers. A multiple collision on a main highway with a big gas-fueled truck could be a very frightening affair.

Wakeupsid

Good change of topic

EN

I think the future of land vehicles is electric. The technology just keeps getting better, storing more and more energy in smaller and lighter cells.

I use my electric bicycle to commute to work for 9 cents of electricity per week - a total of 65 km per week.

The problem is the North American addiction to big, heavy, high status vehicles in landscape of suburban sprawl. If commuters living within 30 km of work would switch to electric bicycles, even 8 months of the year, we could cut oil consumption by over 50%. No insurance, no registration, no parking fees, etc.

If they then gave those e-bicycles a bit of pedal assist to suppliment the battery, we might even make a dent in the obesity epidemic.

It feels good to leave my boat in the driveway and give the Shell station the finger as I glide by on my silent but swift stead!

1280 SPX is our next major stop.

Michael

By the way, there was an interesting article about T. Boone Picken's "Clean Energy" company that is now trading in the low 20's in this week's BARRONS. It's a very informative article about the various vehicles that can be tapped into to run on NG. Apparently, they are going after the 18-wheeler market because the tanks can be fairly large.

In any event, the article said that the gasoline equivalent per gallon in Nat-Gas is 0.48 cents per gallon, excluding compression costs and shipping.

If we could just get the infrastructure cranked up, we could really become much cleaner and independent from foreign oil. You could run fleets of delivery vehicles on it, buses, garbage trucks, etc.

Your Dad DG

DG,

I am your father.

Glenn Loser Neely

Zendo

Your Dad DG, you need to show your statistical prove that DG is your son! Otherwise your son cannot agree with you without facts and data. BTW, what did your wife take when she was pregnant with DG... must be some heavy lead poisoning. ;)

DG

GLN and Zendo,

Darwin must be spinning in his grave watching the two of you disprove his theory of evolution right here on this board.

GlennLoserNeely

Carl Futia nails it AGAIN!!!

Mamma Boom Boom

About the time everyone gears up for NG (tremendous expense), the wise-guys in DC will figure out that they can gain political traction by jumping on the speculators, and soon crude will be $8 a barrel.

Dumb Asses!

nspolar

Real time trade update.

I am now up about 2 %, was never more than about 1 %. We I believe have liftoff and am getting ready to load up 2nd tranch of commodity shorts. Have to move up a little more first. I have guidelines to follow.

This is no paper after the fact trade. This is for real money.

My prediction was the Shanghai would hit a major cycle high on the 14th. Hit dead nutz. It was the 14th in the US when it hit, on my chart. Shanghia high means commodities will drop. China is likely the largest influence on commodity prices these days, bare none.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=5d

Peeps as stated a cycle high on the Shanghai does not necessarily mean any or all US indices have hit their cycle high.

Yelnick, this is my last post on your board. You should know why. My preference is to converse with honest people, like Jose.

ns

Chabazite

Stocks fell, sending a gauge of emerging market equities down the most in two months, and commodities retreated after Google Inc.’s results disappointed investors. Also, consumer sentiment has fallen deeply the last two weeks in a surprise that indirectly points to trouble in the labor market. Looks like Yelnick's 'Summer of Disillusionment' may soon be upon us.

DG

"Yelnick, this is my last post on your board. You should know why. My preference is to converse with honest people, like Jose."

Ah, yes, nspolar the last honest man on the planet.

Man, you are self-righteous.

DG

"Looks like Yelnick's 'Summer of Disillusionment' may soon be upon us."

The sentiment numbers are showing a strong disconnect between current situation and future expectations, so as those "future expectations" become the "current situation" in the coming months, it could definitely result in "disillusionment".

Something I watch closely in the labor market is telling me that most CEOs are going to look for growth through acquisition and cost-cutting over the next few years and not through organic means. That says they're still pessimistic despite the market's rally.

Chabazite

DG. Yes I am picking up those vibes too, but acquisitions & mergers often don't work out in the longer term. Strategically they are quite often a bad move and end up in tears. Our illustrious business captians never seem to learn ... Best. Chab.

JT

Goldman Sachs charged by the SEC with sub-prime security fraud. Market gets hit at 10:37 AM Eastern on the news.

Hypocrisy

"Man, you are self-righteous." - DG

Now that's calling the "kettle" black!!!

DG

"DG. Yes I am picking up those vibes too, but acquisitions & mergers often don't work out in the longer term. Strategically they are quite often a bad move and end up in tears. Our illustrious business captians never seem to learn ... Best. Chab."

Chab, M&A is one of those things almost all successful companies do well, but, as you say, most M&A programs are unsuccessful.

A great example is Danaher. They hire the best M&A people in corporate America and let them loose (metaphorically, they actually have a quite disciplined M&A process). Stock is up 80-fold over the past two decades.

DG

"Now that's calling the "kettle" black!!!"

No, I'm not self-righteous. I don't portray myself as more moral or honest than anyone.

In fact, I can't even think of a time when any moral topic at all came up in anything I've posted.

I post facts and opinions about the markets. Everything else is of no concern to me for the purposes of this board. At most, I'll occasionally say that Wall Street is getting away with murder at the taxpayer's expense, which is hardly a controversial moral stand and really doesn't say anything about how moral I am personally.

Hypocrisy

Hi,

My name is DG.

I don't really trade at all. I just spend most of my day making posts on several Internet blogs to feed my Ego and act like I know what I'm doing.

If I really traded the markets, I wouldn't be spending much time here, if at all.

Bird

Strange that the $BKX was exactly at .382 retrace from the 2007 high when the Goldman story broke. I can't believe the SEC looks at such things!

DG

"

Hi,

My name is DG.

I don't really trade at all. I just spend most of my day making posts on several Internet blogs to feed my Ego and act like I know what I'm doing.

If I really traded the markets, I wouldn't be spending much time here, if at all.

Posted by: Hypocrisy | Friday, April 16, 2010 at 08:01 AM "

I see you're back to that strategy. And round and round it goes.

You really need some new material.

I have an idea for your next post: How about you ignore the urge to bash me and ACTUALLY POST A REAL-TIME TRADE?

Zendo

DG is talking about getting people's stats and trading record again... wonder if its not lead poisoning during his childhood and fried his noodle, what else would make him become a self-proclaim intellectual jerk.... what will be the statistic odd to have a someone here so eager to show his trading to others? Even he only made 4.5 SPY point in 1 1/2 months when 100 SPX points can be made trading the index future, given his super accurate statistically proven system....

DG

We'll see if this turns out to be correct. If so, I got the high within a couple of SPX points.

"This count remains on track.

http://yfrog.com/b8spydaily5p

The max target for .G is probably up around 121.8 SPY (1.618X wave-.E).

The expectation would be that once the SPY reaches that minimum target, we'd have a larger correction than any since the February low.

Even if that happens, it will be unknown if "the high" will have been put in on this particular rally or not. If the reversal and decline get larger than the one from the January high to the February low, it will boost the odds that a top is in.

Posted by: DG | Friday, April 09, 2010 at 03:16 PM"

DG

"Even he only made 4.5 SPY point in 1 1/2 months when 100 SPX points can be made trading the index future, given his super accurate statistically proven system...."

Two points.

Please tell me that you understand that 4.5 SPY points is actually the equivalent of 45 SPX points. If you don't understand that, please just go away because you OBVIOUSLY know less than nothing about markets.

Secondly, you are succumbing to the very "hindsight" bias you always accuse me of! Yes, IT TURNED OUT that the market went up 100 points over that same time, but, guess what, NO ONE knew that it would and that's where my risk management techniques kicked in. Yes, the SPX has been grinding higher, but on an Hourly basis, which is how I manage my trades, it's pretty clear how much overlap and undercutting of Hourly chart support there has been. Those Hourly moves cause my trades to get stopped out. I have NO PROBLEM with this, especially since one of the "truths" of technical analysis is that once horizontal support is broken it is anyone's guess how far the market will go and holding on is just asking for trouble. My entire theory of risk management is based on respecting horizontal support and resistance, so I have no qualms with closing a trade based on those.

Seriously, I can't understand why YOU don't understand these things. It is really just common sense.

Zendo

My common sense is very simple ... you made 4.5 SPY points, not something equivalent to 45 SPX point (let alone the 100 points) and then made all these BS, techniques, yet given your superb trading method... and you are so eager to show your trade...

Let me reiterate ...very simple... you made 4.5 SPY point... thats who you are.... tiny.

Zendo

If your system and your method is so good at predicting, there shouldn't be any hindsight issue that hindering you from riding those trends. Given you have such high risk adjusted return, trading the SP future will suit you quite well, as you are also have a sophisticated risk management system in place....

SPY.... so you are doing 100,000 or 1 million shares a shot that make you so loud? You are feeling inadequate so you need attention, or your inadequacy come from lack of margin (ie capital).

DG

"My common sense is very simple ... you made 4.5 SPY points, not something equivalent to 45 SPX point (let alone the 100 points) and then made all these BS, techniques, yet given your superb trading method... and you are so eager to show your trade...

Let me reiterate ...very simple... you made 4.5 SPY point... thats who you are.... tiny."

Dude, in all seriousness, are you not aware that 1 SPY point is the same as 10 SPX or ES points? Have you not noticed that when the SPX is up 10 points, the SPY is up 1 point (give or take a bit due to different pricing mechanisms)? This is so basic as to be even before "Trading 101".

"If your system and your method is so good at predicting, there shouldn't be any hindsight issue that hindering you from riding those trends."

Actually, I make no claims to predicting how far a trade will run. I prefer that they run far, but when I see evidence that might not be true, I exit immediately. I have no desire to let a profit slip away nor let a loss become larger than necessary.

"SPY.... so you are doing 100,000 or 1 million shares a shot that make you so loud? You are feeling inadequate so you need attention, or your inadequacy come from lack of margin (ie capital)."

Hmmm, I thought the point of this blog was to discuss topics relating to Elliott Wave, including trading. How am I being "loud" by discussing the topic to which the board is dedicated? What is the logic in your head when you make that accusation?

Once again, what would really be interesting is not yet another post about my alleged shortcomings but a real-time trade call. Preferably, a series of them so that it all doesn't come down to one call.

What are you afraid of? You OBVIOUSLY think that you're smarter than me because day after day you tell me how stupid I am to think the things I think, so by the law of transitivity, you must assume you are smarter than me.

So, Mr. I'm Smarter Than DG, PROVE IT in the only way that matters: by making a real-time trade call.

All this other junk is just a waste of everyone's time. If you're not boring even to yourself by this point, you definitely have a higher threshold for boredom than I do.

Again, the ONLY thing that matters is real-time trading calls. Period.

Zendo

Why don't show people how much $$$$ you made using your mumble jumble complex system... people give you all the attention you need... and you can sell your prediction like Neely does.

But again.... you avoid this many times... don't worry... seen your type before, always hide behind the technical jargon to cover their inadequacy. Keep trading..... real time... really important to keep taking about it.

Zendo

Let me repeat... you made 4.5 SPY points... not 45 equivalent SP point.... period. Don't multiply your imagination by 10X.... thats not what you made in your pocket, so get a life... when you are really trading SP and making 45 SP points... show us your trade and inspire us... so farmer like me will be able to learn something.

Zendo

I am into market data, I am into statistic, I am into Elliot Wave, I am into Neely method, I am into real time trading... I am into real time trading call.... show me your trading stats... show me your real time call.... show me you are real trader... da da da da da da.... I am so good ... I am so worthy... I make real time trading call.... I know how to count waves.... blah blah blah.... sounds like a bi-polar or ADHD to me.

Chabazite

More 'Summer of Disillusionment' stuff - General Electric Co.’s first - quarter profit fell 18 percent and revenue trailed analysts’ estimates as sales of large equipment in the energy, aviation and locomotive units declined. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLmg0q6zFdnE&pos=4 So far it seems that only the threat of higher interest rates and less than hoped for results have any 'sobering' effect on this market; more or less all other bad news seems to be ignored. Maybe the summer season will see sufficient to see equity prices get back to a more realistic base.

DG

"Let me repeat... you made 4.5 SPY points... not 45 equivalent SP point.... period. Don't multiply your imagination by 10X.... thats not what you made in your pocket"

I've obviously assumed too much about your knowledge of markets.

Thanks for the conversation. Goodbye.

Account Deleted

DDear DG !!

What is your maximum possible upside target for SNP500.Just a level it can attain in this rally based on your wave counts or have we completed the entire rise from March09.If we have then what could be the first confirmation of it.It would be really greatful if could throw some light on this.

DG

Yelnick,

That real-time trading board you suggested the other day sounds even better today.

If you do set it up, please make it so that the only inputs it accepts are trade-related (something like what you're trading, your entry price and an exit price and no unrelated chit-chat), so that we can make sure all the junk people like to talk doesn't pollute it like it has here on the main board.

I'd rather let my trading do the talking anyway. People can then decide on their own if I know what I'm doing or not.

Zendo

DG, what are your afraid of, just making 4.5 SPY points is not a shame... thinking that you have made 45 equivalent SP point is a shame and insane.

Don't hide your inadequacy and just said others lack of market knowledge, maybe others has lot more market knowledge than you...

So how many shares did you trade on SPY? If using same capital for that and trading SP futures, given you have a super duper system, you should make your 45 SP point.... that should make more than your SPY trade. What are you afraid of? You have such a goooood method....

DG

VB,

Actually, something close to 1300 is not completely out of the question.

I had a limit of 121.84 for this particular segment of the rally since the February low. We'll see if today's decline is an indication that limit will hold.

Ideally, confirmation would be a decline that is "larger and faster" than any since the March 2009 low. Since I am counting both of the large declines since the March 2009 low as x-waves, IF that count is right, no more x-waves are allowed and any decline larger than that must be a reversal of trend.

Zendo


"That real-time trading board you suggested the other day sounds even better today." - DG

You don't seem that receptive the other day... what happen?

I would suggest the board should only accept actual trading record and account statement, not some "real time trading call".... it'll be fair and if possible an audit statement even better.

Account Deleted

Thanx DG for your valued view.As greedy as i am but please answer these last few ones for me.What is the probability of 1300 being achieved on SNP in your view.(difficult question but if possible please answer).As I see it based on conventional technical analysis, 1226 is the probable target(just a target based on an assumed Inverted Head and shoulders pattern).

The last larger decline was from 1150 approx to 1044 and it happened in 14 days.So based on the confirmation indicator u mentioned if we fall more than 106 points on SNP in next 14 days it would mean a confirmed reversal.Am I getting u correct or is it too amateurish.

Also according to u the current fall would be the F leg of your assumed diametric which would be followed by a G leg which can stretch max to 1300.Is this what u mean ? If possible could u just mention your current wave count in short.

Thanx in advance
VB

Zendo

BTW, another guy here suggest you post your trade in your own blog, why here?

Its so easy to setup a blog yourself, what's stopping you?

Why you need the exposure here?

Why the continuation in defending Neely's method?

Why all the argument and eagerness in posting your trade?

What are you trying to do, using a public forum to show your skills if trading is about making money for yourself, unless you want to sell newsletter?

What's wrong to show everyone your past trading record and statement audited to prove your finding are worthy? Are you license in any capacity to make this market suggestion?

DG

"You don't seem that receptive the other day... what happen?"

Yeah, that's a lie. I thought it was a good idea the other day and I think it's an even better one today.

Finally, YOU will have to put up or shut up.

Zendo

No... you didn't indicate you are interested the other day.... instead you quote Warren Buffet wait till the tide goes away and will see everyone naked.

Why do I have to shut up? Any facts or statistics I need to ask for your permission?

One more time, why can't you post your trade in your own blog? But your blog only talk about Neely's trade? What's stopping you to post your audited trading statement and illustrate that you are a market intellectual?

DG

VB,

When I don't know the answer to a probability question, I say it's "50-50", so that's my answer to the chances of reach 1300.

You are correct about the requirements for the decline in time and price from this week's highs. Now, as we've seen, just because a decline is "larger and faster" than prior declines doesn't guarantee a trend reversal.

"Also according to u the current fall would be the F leg of your assumed diametric which would be followed by a G leg which can stretch max to 1300.Is this what u mean ? If possible could u just mention your current wave count in short."

Not exactly. The wave up from the February lows I am counting as a Diametric right now and the 121.84 limit was for the wave-.G of that Diametric. Now, this pattern has taken enough time to be the entirety of the structure necessary to complete a Triple Combination from the March 2009 lows, but it has not reached what Neely calls the "waterfall" price target of a Triple Combination. That's near 1300.

So, in brief, the wave count is as follows:

March 2009 to June 2009 - First :3
June 2009 to July 2009 - First x-wave
July 2009 to January 2010 - Second :3
January 2010 to February 2010 - Second x-wave
February 2010 to present - Third :3

The "third :3" may have only completed its wave-a with this week's high, though. That's the open question. The "third :3", so far, is what I'm saying is a Diametric and had a limit of 121.84 for its final wave.

DG

"No... you didn't indicate you are interested the other day.... instead you quote Warren Buffet wait till the tide goes away and will see everyone naked."

Clearly that went over your head. My point was, yes, let's do a real-time trading board so everyone can see who are the good traders and who aren't, i.e. who's "swimming naked" and who isn't.

Duh.

Zendo

"Yeah, that's a lie." - DG

You lie? I thought you are all about facts and data... statistic too.... so what's probability of you lying and at the same time making a "REAL TIME TRADING CALLLLLLL"... "REAL TIME TRADING CALLLLLLL"... "REAL TIME TRADING CALLLLLLL"... "REAL TIME TRADING CALLLLLLL"... "REAL TIME TRADING CALLLLLLL"... ??

SO IMPORTANT.... NEED TO POST IT TO EVERYONE TO KNOW....

The answer for the probability is 100%... ie: always lying and making real time trading call... plus relentless pursuit of market data.

Zendo

Come on DG..... show us you are a self-made billionare in using MEW DG method with your past audited trading result.... we'll be your follower.... save us!

DG

"You lie? I thought you are all about facts and data... statistic too.... so what's probability of you lying and at the same time making a "REAL TIME TRADING CALLLLLLL"... "REAL TIME TRADING CALLLLLLL"... "REAL TIME TRADING CALLLLLLL"... "REAL TIME TRADING CALLLLLLL"... "REAL TIME TRADING CALLLLLLL"... ??"

Double your dosage.

Zendo

"Double your dosage." - DG

With all the calls you made... how much do you made? Why you keep skirting this simple and straight forward question? If you have make a lot of money from very small amount consistently over past 10 years, you should be trader of the year ... why hide your talent and not showing that you are a star? All it takes is not "REAL TIME TRADING CALL"... but some trading account statement posted in your own blog site..... whats stopping you? You are already the best (the way you talk), so why you need to compare to idiot like us?

DG

"Why you keep skirting this simple and straight forward question?"

Because it is none of your business. Period.

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