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« Unemployment, Stocks, and the Fed's Emergency Meeting | Main | Give Credit to the Fed »

Monday, April 05, 2010

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Michael

Thanks for the analysis and E-Wave summary Yelnick.
Very interesting discussion of the "skewer" wave using Pencast. Nice job!

David

love the pencast!

chomen

Please don't tell me it's incredibly bullish.

Ben

If Prechter is still bearish, then the wave up since march 2009 must be impulsive...

DG

Still think this is the count from the February low.

http://yfrog.com/5espydaily4p

yelnick

Chomen, the best way to describe EWI and the STU view is that they have accepted the P2 wave will go 62% or even up to 2/3 of the way back. They leave open a drop sooner than that, but the odds for that are low. More likely we have a B wave then a final C wave to 1225-1275 range. Hence they now are mid-temr bullish even as they see a pullback due any day.

michael eckert

Yelnick, I e-mailed you the PFD of that triangle from an old 2006 report I had.

Roger D.

If somebody could explain why this count doesn't work I would be interested. Of course it would have to produce a major top in the 1200 area and then drop like a stone.

The NDX sentiment and the equity put call are at extremes or about at so this might fit.

I have thought in the back of my head that othordox elliot has been dead since 1987. If this market continues up into the summer and later, most will agree no matter who the hell is counting "won't mean crap" as there will be so many patterns that are busted,this won't be the 1st new excuse count, manufactured to fit.

Yelnick, thanks for the excellant presentation.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/74beae5a-27c1-4617-a31a-563b9191421d

Anon

Daneric ripping off the chart that I sent him over a year ago. I guess my channels weren't so "wrong" after all. What a thieving little pissant. If you follow him, you should know what you are getting.

His chart: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S7VH1QeuaZI/AAAAAAAAEpo/kL2-TVUo8jI/s1600/2010-04-01-PROPHET.png

My chart (note the date): http://tinyurl.com/yz6vad8

His reply email and my intro:

From: daneric40@comcast.net
Subject: Re: Couple Charts
Date: Thu, 2 Apr 2009 20:26:52 -0400

I would say they are creative but likely wrong, They violate many basic tenets of EW theory such as channeling. I follow generally Robert Prechter's view of the long term wave count That I have posted from time to time.

I am open to other views, but as a member of EWI, their evidence is overwhelming and they present much more stuff than just price charts of the indexes to support their counts.

----- Original Message -----

To: daneric40@comcast.net
Sent: Thursday, April 02, 2009 2:21 PM
Subject: Couple Charts

Daneric, really like your work and I would appreciate your comments on these charts.

The key one is the Dow of course. The others just add background how this may be the right count. This, at this point in time, would be my alternate count but I'm starting to favor it as I've had a nagging feeling that the principle of alternation may apply i.e. if wave 2 was indeed the Great Depression, then we are preparing for the Great Inflation that will be the 5th wave book end to wave 2. (Bernanke is going to make sure there is no deflation and perhaps he's going to be right beyond his wildest dreams).

Forgive the color of the USO chart as IB won't allow a change of the stock colors. Also, note that the 1929 high was actually a B wave throw over (even Elliott himself believed that) so my wave I is actually out of place as labelled.

All of this may also explain why we've had such a powerful move off the 666 low (perhaps a very fitting low if your religious). We may in fact be in 3 of 1 of V already where we only achieved a 23.6% retracement of wave 1 of 1 indicating the power of the next move.

This would all be consistent with the total devaluation of the US dollar and that would be consistent with how Rome was in its last days - devaluing its currency to sustain the crumbling regime.

All in all, pretty far fetched but then again so was 666 two years ago. Any comments you may have, in terms of what you can see in these charts and your own, would be appreciated.


Regards,

Greg

Reading Daneric response I can’t avoid a loud laugh. Listen to this guy… “They violate …tenets of EW THEORY” such as channeling”… WOW. What a theory and how deep and obscure concepts it applies such as channeling. D E L U S I O N. A bankrupt accumulation of observations of patterns that harmonics generate and the human brain interprets as preconditions for certain market actions in its futile endless efforts to capture the future. Here is my take. If you can’t trade flow DON’T TRADE. If you rely on whoever Daneric to play the market DON’T TRADE. Until you are confident enough on your instincts and don’t feel the need to find out what whoever Mr. P or Mr. N or whoever else thinks about the market DON’T TRADE. If you come to this site for passing time and entertaining reasons TRADE but if you come here to find out what to do with your money DON’T TRADE.

DG

Until you are confident enough on your instincts and don’t feel the need to find out what whoever Mr. P or Mr. N or whoever else thinks about the market DON’T TRADE.

I'm going to preface this with the standard "past performance does not equal future results" disclaimer.

That said, let's say you knew in August 2006 what I've said many times, which is that following Neely's trade recommendations on the Weekly timeframe is a good strategy. Let's also say that you had $25K in a day-trading account and were willing to play a little bit riskier than Neely recommends and use margin and risk between 4% and 8% of your capital per trade, rather than the 1-2% he recommends and you traded the SPY. Let's also say you had an extra $500/month to add to the account from working your day job, which isn't unrealistic.

Total equity in the account today, even after a year of failed short trades, would be ~$77K, after-tax, and at its peak would have been ~$111K.

If you could honestly look at your own results and have done better, kudos. If you took on more risk to do better, you need to risk-adjust to make an apples-to-apples comparison.

I don't understand why it seems that trading isn't about RESULTS, as opposed to how you get there.

Jay

Daneric is a young guy with a big, brash, arrogant, elitist Ego that has very little idea of what he's doing because he just doesn't have much market experience/history under his belt. He is an EWI "puppet" that has a distinct tendency to throw a lot of pretty little "squiggle" charts and indicators up on the wall, hoping one or two might actually come true and "stick".

I have found that his knowledge of technical analysis is quite poor as reflected by his total lack of use of MA's to identify and confirm trend. His knowledge of the actual "mechanics" of the market place is even more obscure given his frequent rants about "program trading" and market-makers - - - two topics that he has absolutely no clue about what he's talking about. In fact, for anyone that's actually sat on an equity derivative's desk where stock-index arb and program trading is done, Daneric's understanding of the marketplace is downright laughable.

Instead, he spends much of his time working on one EW count as opposed to entertaining any plausible "alternative" count that might be considered BULLISH. As a result, he has changed back and forth from P3 to P2 more times than Charro changes wardrobes. His obsession with the VIX as having actual predictive value, even to the point of labeling the VIX with an Elliott count is even more mind-boggling.

More often than not, he conveniently ignores key classical technical indicators when they don't "fit" with his "perma-bear" BIAS.

He is a "perma-bear" that lives to "Pick The Top" of the market for all of the fame and notoriety that the Internet will allow. Yet, in an e-mail to me last year he admitted that he didn't even trade.

Thank God he has a regular "day" job.
Avoid this guy at all costs.

DG

His obsession with the VIX as having actual predictive value, even to the point of labeling the VIX with an Elliott count is even more mind-boggling.

Anyone who tries to label the VIX doesn't understand its construction, that is for sure.

Michael

Agreed.

And Daneric isn't the only E-Wave blogger that continually labels the VIX with an EWT count, Kenny does the same thing too.

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