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Monday, April 19, 2010

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Jack

my guess:
http://schrts.com/bVmnkP $SPX - my target for this pullback is 1150-ish
whether or not it's a pullback or a new downtrend is outside my forecasting window, which is generally five-ten days.
cheers

Wave Rust

There are no tops in young bull markets

Just a bunch of people looking for a top, which only causes the bull market to go higher.

price pushes price.

the worse the news, the better the bull.

this is/was a 4

wave rust

Michael

"And a few hours into the trading day Monday, sure enough here we are in bombs away mode after a little chart time above the light blue trend lines that formed the snapback rally." - David Grandey

I'm sorry, but if this guest poster above thinks that this morning's opening was "Bombs Away Mode", I'm gonna have to pass reading anymore of his future analysis.

Next.

Edwin

according to Zoominfo.com.

"David Grandey is a successful stock market investor for the past 15 years. Grandey started All About Trends to share with others how to identify and trade common set-ups that tend to deliver significant short-term gains.
Prior to founding All About Trends, Grandey served as Director of Corporate Communications for Meriwest Credit Union and Director of Public Relations for Silicon Valley Bank, helping to establish brand awareness and credibility through feature editorial coverage in leading national and local news media. Grandey is a member of the PR Society of America, the International Association of Business Communicators and the Downtown San Jose Rotary Club."

HOW DOES HIS BACKGROUND MAKE HIM QUALIFY TO PROVIDE STOCK ANALYSIS?

Greg

Edwin, good question and the answer is his is not qualified. But you can expand if you will. How is Prechter qualified to do market analysis. Oh, I forgot he got a degree in psychology therefore he can say the S&P broke below Friday's low, but the Dow did not, a divergence that is typical of a "B wave fake-out...whatever. I can go ahead and visit cases of other prophets but I ll stop. Somewhere around here DG is supposed to jump and start telling us about Neely...What did Neely study anyway, if anything at all? Did he get a BS in English literature. I guess it would be in economis so he must be ...qualified to call the market.

Chabazite

Earnings - I said a couple of days ago if you get two or three reports that go against expectations, then they are a fluke. However, of the 30 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported quarterly results since April 12, 28 have beaten analyst estimates (according to data compiled by Bloomberg) - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agHMtsk15Wx4&pos=2 This is beginning to look like a trend. It will be interesting to see whether this momentum can be sustained into Q2 and Q3 given the dire employment situation.

DG

Somewhere around here DG is supposed to jump and start telling us about Neely...What did Neely study anyway, if anything at all? Did he get a BS in English literature. I guess it would be in economis so he must be ...qualified to call the market.

No, I find the whole line of inquiry odd. There really isn't an academic credential pertaining to "trading" per se. Even the guys in b-school who go on to the trading floors for the big banks don't get a degree in "trading", it's a standard finance degree.

Livermore never went to college and I actually don't think Neely did, either.

I'd actually say statistics would be the best background for trading, but, if you're also going to be a chartist, a background in painting would be nice too, to train the eye.

G2

Livermore never went to college and I actually don't think Neely did, either

According to the MEW back cover blurb Mr Neely began studying markets and economics in 1979. MEW was published in 1990.

Mamma Boom Boom

I see that Neely is now bearish in all time frames, on Gold. This matches my analysis. Should I be worried?

Mamma Boom Boom

"Mamma Knows Best"

Didn't I tell you, a month ago, that the Shanghai was looking real sick.

MHD

Looks like one down day is all the bears can come up with. Investors don't care how GS got the money. Probably will only have to give back a couple of pennies in fines and the street knows that.
So much for the top, once again!

MHD

Yes, it certainly looks like the markets are concerned about GS and the rest of the investment banks. More like the markets already knew this was coming, and really no pain will be involved. So onward and upward we go, to a top so high, no one will know!

Mamma Boom Boom

>So onward and upward we go, to a top so high, no one will know!<

I love it when you talk that way.

Greg

"There really isn't an academic credential pertaining to "trading" per se. Even the guys in b-school who go on to the trading floors for the big banks don't get a degree in "trading", it's a standard finance degree." dg

DG, we are not talking about trading here, we are talking about FORECASTING. Prechter is smart enough NOT to trade and so is(was, till recently to the best of my knowledge)Neely. So don't confuse the two in a rush to self-validate. There is a H U G E difference. If we agree on this starting point then I naively ask myself how a guy with a psychology degree or another without any formal education would claim forecasting abilities as compared to let's say guys who studied an additional 5-10 years solely econometrics or statistics or math or...(I will not continue here) and are employed by central bands, foundations, investment banks, large hedge funds etc? But I know, I forgot..., in some way these fellows are victims of mass psychology while a couple of jokers looking at shapes created by harmonics originated by random shocks know the path to riches. Give me a break.

Regarding Livermore, again you confuse pumkins with bananas. He had a talent, real talent. He looked at the numbers on the screen and could get a sense of the markets - mostly right. But more importantly he had the character, sense of truth to himself, humility, courage etc. to EXECUTE. This has NOTHING TO DO with Mr. P or Mr. N attempts to solely FORECAST the markets to make a living.

MHD

Oh, stop.... I'm turning many shades of your top:)
Does anybody know if Mr. P. is still 200% short?

Mamma Boom Boom

I wonder why folks spend so much time debating the abilities of Prechter and Neely? They never debate the abilities of the local shoe store owner, or car dealer, or lumber company. Those guys should sue for equal time.

BTW, Friday was the top!

DG

Greg,

I'm well past caring, trust me. Anyway, to me the "big picture" forecasts Neely has put forward over the past 4 years have often been dead on. Here they are. If you can find someone with a better track record on these kinds of calls, I am so happy for you I could just cry tears of joy.

March 6, 2006
Dear NEoWave Fan,

If you have interest in the EURO currency, for the first time in more than a year, it is approaching a MAJOR turning point. Consequently, an important NEoWave buy signal should be generated within the next few weeks.

Low-risk/high-potential opportunities are rare in the markets, but NEoWave theory excels at identifying such points when they occur.

RESULT: Euro has not closed below the low of the week of March 6, 2006 again since this email was sent.

May 12, 2006
Dear NEoWave Customers and Fans,

For many weeks I've been warning about a MAJOR top in the U.S. stock market. The size and speed of this week's decline was the event I've been waiting for to confirm the end of the NEoWave Diametric formation starting in early 2003.

This means the S&P has embarked on a 1-2 year bear market consolidation. The early phases of this pattern should present some spectacular trading opportunities. Our clients are already Short the S&P from as high as 1319.75 June.

RESULT: S&P cash declined from 1326 to 1219. Clearly this was not a 1-2 year bear market consolidation, but it was still a winning trade.

June 13, 2006
All NEoWave GOLD customers have been well prepared for this month's collapse in Gold. Customers of the TRADING service have been Short for the last $40, with much more expected (the latest update is attached).

Even if you have missed the current decline, volatility should be extreme for a long while, allowing for a great trading environment.

RESULT: Looks like a mixed bag. This initial trade was probably profitable, but the volatility he forecasted doesn’t really seem to have materialized. I wasn’t trading Gold at the time, so I can’t say for sure.

June 16, 2006
Following more than a month of serious stock market decline, the media is now trying to convince you "the worst is over - everything is fine."

NEoWave theory tells us NOTHING could be further from the truth. The S&P is preparing for a decline even larger than that seen in May! But, as always, to take advantage of such situations, TIMING, money management and stop placement are crucial.

The NEoWave S&P TRADING service has so far successfully guided customers through the S&P's first month of decline. We are now gearing up for the next phase of this 1-2 year bear market. If you want to make sure you are on board and not duped by the media, make sure to sign up immediately. As I warned about Gold recently (right before its massive collapse), there is precious little time to waste.

RESULT: Not an accurate forecast. The market bounced around a bit after this notice went out, so I can’t see how subscribers could have lost a lot.

July 19, 2006
After accurately warning you months ago about a significant market decline on the horizon, conditions are changing dramatically. Following a massive increase in world tension, wave structure (surprisingly) is now implying a MAJOR MARKET ADVANCE could be in the works.

RESULT: Turned out to be the low for almost two years. A great example of Neely changing his mind to go with the flow of the market.

January 31, 2007
PUBLIC NOTICE: A few times a year I warn both customers and the general public of big market events on the horizon. I see two such events about to occur in Gold and the S&P. In Gold, possibly the biggest buying event of the year is just 1-3 weeks away; but, as always, timing, entry and stop-placement is everything. In the S&P, unlike most who are worried this advance is long-overdue for a correction, both wave structure and NEELY RIVER theory tell me the S&P is on the verge of its most powerful, persistent advance of the year. Again, entering at the wrong time, with the wrong stop, and you could sit back and watch the entire move get away from you. If you want to take advantage of these two looming events, I highly recommend you subscribe to both the NEoWave TRADING service on Gold and the S&P for at least the next few months. These are two events you don't want to miss. Sincerely, Glenn Neely NEoWave, Inc.

RESULT: This is the one that I consider a fairly big miss on the S&P. The advance came after the quick drop in February/March. Gold really didn’t do much, either, at least not in the short term.

February 27, 2007
ALL S&P TRADING AND FORECASTING CUSTOMERS

Today's decline in the S&P is the first really large drop we have missed in probably 6 or more years. Since it is occurring at a time completely unexpected, I'm suspicious of its cause and implications. Before I have the proper time to reconsider wave structure, my immediate assumptions is this is due to one of the following:

1. The news out of China could have had a similar impact on the U.S. markets that hurricane Andrew did back in August 1992. The Friday prior to Andrew, no one knew what was coming; by Monday morning, Andrew had caused $26 billion in damage. The opening of the markets that morning caused one of the most bizarre, structural detachments I have ever seen. The decline was structurally unexplainable for weeks. The markets finally had to regroup and things got back to normal.

2. Today's decline, due to its size and speed, is the start of a NEW multi-month bear market (I give this choice the highest probability), which means last week's high is the true end of large wave-A (not the high back in late October) and wave-B has just begun.

3. Today's decline is the e-leg of an Expanding Triangle, which typically creates a panic event, but has been highly exaggerated due to the plethora of bad, national and international news (some surprising, some not).

Please give me until tomorrow's regular Trading updates to decide which is most likely the case.

Sincerely,
Glenn Neely
NEoWave, Inc.

RESULT: Didn’t turn out to be a multi-month bear market. He ended up making a few attempts to short and catch a renewed decline. His Forecasting didn’t really get back on track until the Fall. It would be interesting to see the Trading results from the months of March through October 2007, to see how well he managed the fact that his forecasts were off.

May 11, 2007
MAJOR EVENT ON THE HORIZON
For over a year, my analysis on the Euro has been right on. For the first time since February 2006, a major pattern is about to conclude, producing the largest move we have seen in the Euro in years.

RESULT: Although it isn’t clear from the e-mail, Neely believed that the Euro was topping in a wave-5. That was incorrect. He later did a “local progress label” change and turned wave-5 into wave-3. Again, it would be interesting to see the trade records in detail from this time period.

July 18, 2007
For subscribers of the NEoWave GOLD TRADING service, July has been a very good month! Long from near the lows of the year, and with substantial profits locked in, Gold continues to move higher (as expected). To show you what we've been up to, the latest NEoWave Gold TRADING update is attached.

There is MUCH more action expected from this market over the next few months

RESULT: A huge move up in gold followed, although after a bit of a slow stretch.

September 6, 2007
A little more than a month ago, I warned you that the GOLD market was preparing for a MAJOR advance. The reason for that perspective was based on a clear, Contracting Triangle pattern starting at the high in mid 2006. From a structural standpoint, nearly every piece of this pattern is complete, allowing GOLD to begin its post-pattern "thrust" phase at any time. Based on the size of wave-a of the Triangle (see rectangle), it tells us GOLD will advance more than $150 over the next 3 months!

Current NEoWave GOLD Trading customers are Long Gold from about $20 lower with a locked in profit. But, there is MUCH more to come.

RESULT: Much better timing and a huge move in gold that really followed-through.

October 15, 2007
The last time I publicly warned about Gold's upside potential was August 14 - two days before its lowest point of the year! Since then, Gold has rallied more than $110!

Despite the magnitude of its advance, NEoWave theory tells me Gold is on the verge of ANOTHER, LARGE and even faster advance.

RESULT: This was pretty much the beginning of the rally to above $1000, so Neely was very accurate with this call.

October 29, 2007
WARNING: The S&P's next big decline WILL NOT be retraced, but will lead to many more new lows!

As most of you know, my long-term stock market perspective has been bullish the last 5 years. Until recently, I saw no reason to change my mind. Unfortunately, recent market action is warning (for the first time in 7 years!) that a major top could be forming. As one of the only wave theory based services in the world to have been BULLISH during the early 80's, bearish right before the 1987 stock market crash, BULLISH just months after the 1987 stock market crash low, BEARISH at the 2000 high and BULLISH after the 2002 low, I highly recommend you take this warning seriously.

RESULT: 2 days later, the S&P hit 1552 and has not exceeded it since.

December 13, 2007
During the SUMMER, I repeatedly warned you of the MAJOR advance about to begin in GOLD. Subscribers to the NEoWave GOLD Trading service expected a $200 rally within a few months! As 2007 comes to end, Gold's explosive $200 advance is now history!

If you were a NEoWave subscriber back then, you made a killing on that advance. As a matter of fact, the last time I stayed in New York, one of my good customers invited me to his penthouse suite overlooking Central Park for a "secret" meeting. While there, he handed me a $10,000 check as a "Thank You" for helping him make $700,000 trading in 2007!

So, what's next? Well, GOLD is about to make another BIG MOVE, but this time I'm not going to tell you the direction.

RESULT: Looking at the charts from that timeframe, Neely was clearly looking for gold to go up and was definitely accurate.

January 18, 2008
THE BULL MARKET IS OVER!!!

With today's decline I can finally confirm what I have been warning about for at least 6 months, that the 5-year bull market in the S&P (from 2002's low) is finally over! Monday, January 14, 2008 began a new 4-6 year BEAR MARKET! Maximum downside potential is not clear, but over the next few years, the cash S&P will easily break 1000!

From the above, we can reasonably assume the U.S. will be in a protracted recession. As multiple financial bubbles of the last 1-2 decades unwind, it will seriously impact our economy. Not great news, but better to be prepared than be in the dark.

Next week, to get Weekly and Monthly counts in sync, ALL NEoWave S&P Forecasting customers will get updated charts with an uncharacteristic mid-month release.

Have a great weekend.

Sincerely,
Glenn Neely
NEoWave, Inc.

RESULT: The market drifted a bit higher over the next few months, but basically Neely was correct.

February 27, 2008
EURO CURRENCY NEWS

Over the last couple of weeks, the Euro currency has exploded upward. Today it reached its highest level ever, exceeding 1.5000 to the U.S. dollar for the first time ever!

NEoWave EURO Trading customers have been LONG this wild market, exiting this week and netting over $5400 per contract! I've even attached the most recent NEoWave Euro TRADING service so you can see what we have been doing.

The NEXT event in the Euro is expected to be even more dramatic.

RESULT: Neely was definitely early, but his count that had the Euro topping (he was looking for a top just over 1.50 and the Euro went on a bit higher, obviously), was accurate.

March 24, 2008
As a public service, on many past occasions I have issued general announcements about major market turns in the S&P, Notes, the Euro and Gold.

Today's announcement is on GOLD. Following last week's massive, $130 collapse, Gold has given us EXACTLY the move required top confirm the bull market is OVER!

As usual, with any major market call that is contrary to the public's belief system, this will come as a shock and be immediately rejected by the majority. But, there is no denying Gold has experienced its largest, fastest decline in over 10 years, which virtually guarantees a multi-year correction has begun.

If you want to be prepared for years of DEFLATION, not inflation, and you want to benefit from a rising dollar and falling Gold market, make sure to join before it is too late.

RESULT: Gold still has not exceeded that high, although Neely has now changed his count.

April 3, 2008
In mid January I announced "THE BULL MARKET IS OVER." Since then, the S&P has consolidated in a wild range for more than 2 months. The amazing part is that an increasing number of professionals on TV are talking about the "bargains" to be had. Many also seem to believe January's low (now that it has been "tested) is the bottom of the bear market.

According to NEoWave, this bear market has only just begun! There is so much downside to go that it actually scares me to look at monthly wave charts. Without question, this is the most bearish I have been on the U.S. stock market and economy in my 25 year career. NEoWave structural conditions are so bad that a U.S., or even global, financial collapse is likely within the next 6-18 months.

The last time I was bearish on the U.S. stock market was 8 years ago at the highs of the year 2000. NO ONE believed me at that time, but this time around more are willing to listen. Why? In 2000, at the very start of the bear market, optimism is always high and fundamentals are rosy. Now, 2/3's of the way through this 13 year bear market, psychology has shifted significantly, so the bearish case seems more believable. But, what most people don't realize is how much worse fundamentals (and psychology) will get. Most believe THIS is the bad period. In the not too distant future, we will look back at this "credit crisis" as the good ole days!

Based on how markets and psychology work, the optimism the U.S. public had at the highs in 2000 will be met with an equal level of pessimism near the future low of 2010 to 2012. We've seen how quickly Bear Stearns, a major U.S. corporation, can go from "healthy" to bankrupt. A similar situation is about to occur for the entire U.S. financial system.

Long-term subscribers know that, unlike many of my competitors, I've been mostly bullish and optimistic on the U.S. stock market and economy for most of the last 25 years. Only at the high in 1987, the high in 2000 and the high in 2007-2008 did I have any intermediate-term bearish view. But, this time around I'm more concerned than I have ever been about the U.S. economy and stock market.

RESULT: Again, the market drifted up for a while more, but the entire prediction has come through pretty closely to reality over the past 14-15 months.

May 1, 2008
On March 24, 2008, I released a "public notice" warning "The BULL market in GOLD is OVER"! As usual, many were skeptical and some even ridiculed me for my opinion. But, after watching Gold's bullish sentiment hover in the 90% range for months and months (the longest period I've ever witnessed), it was obvious Gold was in a mania. In March, after dropping almost $130 in 4 days (and producing the largest, fastest decline in a decade), it was a safe bet to assume a new, multi-year BEAR market had begun.

As of today (May 1, 2008), Gold has dropped nearly $200 off its all-time high! This is not exactly the scenario Gold bugs were expecting, especially those silly enough to bet a million dollars on the idea the bull market would continue for years!

Based on Gold's new trend, we should not worry about inflation, but instead about DEFLATION - something most do not think is possible and that virtually no one reading this has any experience with. The coming deflation will devastate the U.S. economy and bring the financial and real estate market's to their knees. At such rare times the ONLY safe place is cash - a financial stance we have been trained to avoid all of our lives.

For those who have followed me for the last 25 years, you know I'm far from a sensationalist - quite the contrary, I've been mostly bullish on the U.S. stock market for most of my entire career. Therefore, I hope you take my warning seriously and prepare for the coming storm.

Good luck,
Glenn Neely

RESULT: Gold rose a bit more and then went down nicely into the Fall and talk about deflation definitely became more prominent.

October 9, 2008
As early as October of last year, I warned customers that our long-held, upside target for the U.S. stock market had been reached and that a top was looming. I maintained that outlook throughout early 2008. Then, in mid January, I specifically mapped out the S&P's price action for the next 4 years (see attachment). That Monthly S&P chart gave two scenarios - a milder, "green" scenario and a more dramatic, "crash" scenario in red.

I'm writing to you this evening to report, unfortunately, that the more devastating "red" scenario is now in effect. No matter how or when the S&P goes about breaking 2002's low, the odds are high it will bottom within 50 points of 600! That requires another 33% decline from current levels, so we are FAR from being safe and no matter how much the S&P rallies over the next few days or weeks, there is much more to come later this year or in 2009.

RESULT: Huge market crash and volatility.

January 6, 2009
A new president will soon be sworn into office, markets are recovering and there is an emerging optimism that the worst may be over. I'd be so happy if that were true. NEoWave structure, unfortunately, tells me the worst is just about to begin. Within less than two months (it could be as soon as a few weeks or even less), the S&P should embark on one of its most violent, scary declines in market history. Wave structure currently suggests a 50% decline (from current levels) is possible in 1-2 months! The markets are not prepared for this; the world is not prepared for this, but we will have to deal with it. The only way this will not occur is if the cash S&P is able to exceed 1006 before breaking last year's low. If 1006 is exceeded, then the future is not clear and I will have no opinion for a while. As long as 1006 is not exceeded, the outlook is dire.

As most of you know, I turned officially bearish on the U.S. stock market in mid January 2008. From that point forward, the S&P moved almost exactly as expected all year. Unlike the last 12 months, the next 12 months will be the most treacherous we've ever seen. The only good news I have to report is that, after the big drop, the bear market will be over; but, by then, no one will believe me and the majority of the public will no longer be interested in the stock market. Mutual fund redemptions will reach historic levels - within 1-2 years, financial business and radio shows will start to go off the air and the public's disgust with Wall Street will be so high that a pandemic of law suits will breakout.

I do not like being the purveyor of bad news, but wave structure tells me 2008 was just the warm-up for what's coming. Please do everything you can to prepare for this major, financial storm.

RESULT: Market was down about 30% over the next two months.

April 30, 2009
In January of 2008, I proclaimed "The Bull Market is Over." Few believed, but 16 months later, it is obvious that call was right on target. In the next few weeks, the S&P is likely to SOAR upward, convincing most the Bear market is over. Oh how I wish that were true. NEoWave structure (an advanced, logical form of Elliott Wave) tells us something very different. What it indicates is almost impossible to believe and will shock nearly everyone, causing most to jump back into the market at exactly the wrong time.

This will be the last, great trading opportunity of this decade (and maybe the next), so you do not want to miss it. The NEoWave S&P TRADING service not only caught nearly every major move in the S&P during 2008, but as recently as this month it was rated by TIMER DIGEST to be in the TOP 3 most profitable in all 3 categories (last 3 months, 6 months and 12 months). Preparation is key to surviving the coming turbulence.

RESULT: Neely got the “soar upward” part correct, as the S&P went up about 14% over the next month and a half. Prediction of a resumption of the bear market has not been accurate.

June 17, 2009
In a public-service statement released today, Glenn Neely announced this prediction: The S&P has formed a major top in June, which will be followed by a large decline, eventually pushing the stock market to record lows for the decade.

In the press release, Glenn explains: "According to NEoWave, a correction began at last October's low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction. The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!"

Click to read the full press release: http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009/06/prweb2537224.htm

Patrice Rhoades-Baum
NEoWave Marketing & Public Relations

RESULT: Inaccurate forecast and subsequent attempts to short have not been profitable.

MHD

marketman....just read your reply to my opinion of our current president. One who believes you can cure a problem caused by too much debt, with an even greater amount of debt, is a person full of brown matter, not gray matter. I think all of our recent presidents are in the brown matter category, and most of our politicians in general, with the exception of Ron Paul.
You must be with the K school, instead of the A school. You might be right, but I think Ludwig will turn out to be correct. Just a "clowns" opinion, of course!!

DG

"I wonder why folks spend so much time debating the abilities of Prechter and Neely? They never debate the abilities of the local shoe store owner, or car dealer, or lumber company. Those guys should sue for equal time.

BTW, Friday was the top!"

Momma,

What kills me is that the "debates" never touch upon the one factor that could settle it, which is "whose trade recommendations have been more successful and who has beaten the market?"

EVERY OTHER FACET OF THE "DEBATE" IS MEANINGLESS COMPARED TO THIS.

Heck, in the last post, "Greg" apparently thinks that his incredulity that a "joker" tracking the "shapes" made by price movements could have a profitable trading strategy is an actual argument against it. Well, gee, compared to the fact that "Greg" can't believe it, my years and years worth of data on Neely's track record is evidential chickenfeed. How stupid could I be? Believing data over "Greg"'s incredulousness? Clearly, the fact that "Greg" "can't believe" something should be evidence enough for me not to believe it, right?

Is there anyone posting here who even took Debate 101? Holy crap.

DG

"DG, we are not talking about trading here, we are talking about FORECASTING. Prechter is smart enough NOT to trade and so is(was, till recently to the best of my knowledge)Neely."

Here is another example of "repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth".

Where did you get your information that Neely does not trade because I have the exact opposite information, both from his public statements and from non-public conversations.

So, please, enlighten me with your knowledge.

Mamma Boom Boom

DG, you probably have guessed, by now, that my opinion is people can earn a living any way they want, as long is it causes me no pain. Likewise, I can follow the lead of whomever I want, or maybe none of them. It's not something that needs to be debated.

BTW, seems to me all markets are shifting back to the deflationary mode. It's creeping in very quietly.

DG

Mamma,

All true enough. I just laugh at these "debates". It's like these folks have never debated anything factual before. If I'm debating which is faster a Ferrari or a Lamborghini, I'm not going to debate which one SHOULD be faster, I'm going to see which was has actually been test-driven by Car & Driver or some similar publication and PROVEN to be faster according to that test. Debating trading methods should be held to the EXACT same standard.

Hank Wernicki

No one gets it ........ look at the DOW Friday 2/12 2h at 11:30 am

Look at the Dow last Friday 4/16 2h at 11:30 am

Mamma Boom Boom

DG

We should do like our grandparents did, just start singing, "My dogs bigger than your dog".

It goes like this:

"My Dog's Bigger Than Your Dog'
Words and Music by Tom Paxton

My dog's bigger than your dog.
My dog's bigger than yours.
My dog's bigger, and he chases mailmen.
My dog's bigger than yours.

My dog's better than your dog.
My dog's better than yours.
His name is King, and he had puppies.
My dog's better than yours.

[Cho:]
I'm not afraid of the dark anymore.
I can tie my shoes.
I have been to the country and
I am going to school.

My dad's tougher than your dad.
My dad's tougher than yours.
My dad's tougher, and he yells louder and
My dad's tougher than yours.

My dad's louder than your dad.
My dad's louder than yours.
Momma buys a new dress, Daddy makes noises.
My dad's louder than yours.

[Cho:]

Our car's faster than your car.
Our car's faster than yours.
It has a louder horn, it bumps other cars.
Our car's faster than yours.

Our car's older than your car.
Our car's older than yours.
It stops running and Daddy kicks the fenders.
Our car's older than yours.

[Cho:]

My Mom's older than your Mom.
My Mom's older than yours.
She takes smelly baths, she hides the gray hairs.
My Mom's older than yours.

My Mom's funnier than your Mom.
My Mom's funnier than yours.
Her hair is pretty and it changes colors.
My Mom's funnier than yours.

[Cho:]

DG

Mamma,

Yes, that's about the level of "debate".

It isn't even about Neely's track record at this point, it's more about what even constitutes a rational discussion about anyone's track record.

Anyway, I had a long trade signal yesterday that will get closed under 120.66 SPY and a short signal that will kick in under 120.42 SPY, so long as we reach it by end of day today or the first 6 minutes of trading tomorrow. As I post this, SPY is at 120.71.

marketman

"BTW, seems to me all markets are shifting back to the deflationary mode. It's creeping in very quietly." - Mamma

Yeah, that must be why the Oil Drilling Index (OIH) is screaming today along with every other commodity and energy related stock!

Potash +$4.00
Mosaic +$1.50
Agrium +$2.20

Schlumberger +$2.50
Baker Hughes +$2.70'
Transocean +$3.15
Diamond Offshore +$3.33
Noble +$1.52

Apache +$3.00
Devon +$2.20

Cliffs +$1.55
US Steel +$1.25
Arch Coal +$1.06
Peabody +$1.07
Joy Global +$1.20

Once again, we have posters on this blog that do nothing other than "pose" as traders when they clearly don't do anything other than "paper-trading".

Thanks "Mamma" for yet another informative post!

:)


Chabazite

'BTW, Friday was the top!' Quite definitive Mama. No doubts in your mind. What makes you so certain?

DG

"Once again, we have posters on this blog that do nothing other than "pose" as traders when they clearly don't do anything other than "paper-trading"."

Why is this so "clear"? Seems like you are making a assumption that it is true and then stating your assumption as fact.

Mamma Boom Boom

>Quite definitive Mama. No doubts in your mind. What makes you so certain?<

Oh, plenty of doubts! But, the thread is titled "Was Friday the Top", so I felt compelled to answer. The next few days should give a clearer picture. But, some indicators are pointing down and others are almost in negative territory. Obviously, you don't know what I'm talking about, but it's not costing you anything, either.

Right-o, ole chap?

JT

Markets are shifting back to deflationary mode?

Where is the evidence for this???

Michael

Yelnick,

Just an FYI . . .

Carl Futia turned around and got bullish after yesterday's strong close and 16 point ES rally without even a 3 point correction; which also happened to close above Friday's highs.

As a result, he has been playing the long side once again today. Sees a move up to 1270 SPX.

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

"That said I also must acknowledge that the move up from yesterday's low has been fast and only corrected by a six point drop. I think it will approach the 1210 level, perhaps even exceed it slightly, but then will drop 8-10 points before moving higher to new bull market highs."


Chabazite

Tickety boo, Mama! Jolly good show!

Mamma Boom Boom

JT, my best advise is to look at the trendlines, and fundamentals of hard assets.

I only sound the alert, it's up to you to look deeper.

DG

"Carl Futia turned around and got bullish after yesterday's strong close and 16 point ES rally without even a 3 point correction; which also happened to close above Friday's highs."

There was actually enough evidence to go long at 119.07 SPY yesterday afternoon after the SPY failed to make a new low and then had a rally "larger and faster" than any during the decline from 119.81 to 118.47.

I have no idea if we'll go to 1270 or not, though. I admire Carl for sticking his neck out on that call, even if I don't find his rationale compelling. We'll see what the outcome is.

Wakeupsid

Duncan you fucking you ass hole , fucking you bottom was at 667

and we are at 1200

fucking jerk , may you get ducked fuckeed and raped!

yelnick

Wakeupid, English your fourth language or somethin'?

simpleton

Methinks wakeupsid has somethin' eatin' 'im alive inside, poor boy

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