With the Euro in its expected small bounce - and may have more to go due to what happened overnight - the Australian Dollar continues to tumble. The AUD fell over 3c in the last day, a huge move, and broke below its Feb5 low at 85.75c, confirming a double top. A technical bounce may come, but the trend is decidedly down. There may be initial support around 82c, but the next major support level is the July 2009 low at 77c.
The other currency pair to watch is AUD/JPY, driven by the granddaddy of the carry trade, the Yen carry trade. The AUD bounced off a key Yen support level at 76, but seems destined to crush through shortly. If so, this confirms unraveling of the carry trade and serious weakness in the AUD.
Note: I moved the comments on the Euro to a new post
I have continued to fastiduosly follow the BP oil spill. Some good recent wags.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/BP-hopes-top-kill-to-stop-oil-apf-610955666.html?x=0&.v=17
http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/05/bp_hopes_top_kill_to_stop_gulf.html
http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/05/kevin_costners_idea_for_cleani.html
http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/05/new_oil_spill_videos_released.html
W/r to the last link, I have never seen it published what the pressure on the downhole side of the BOP is. I suspect it is pretty high. Anyway I made some assumptions, watched the videos, did some calculations, and I agree with those that state this well is leaking much more than 5000 BPD. I will just say many times that. BP I am quite sure knows this as well and has known it for some time.
It appears BP hit a pretty big find, and a really high pressure one. If their top kill attempt fails, this will almost assuredly verify that.
BP is also drilling two relief wells now. I think it possible this well so powerful they were afraid they could not kill from the bottom with one.
Some one and maybe more than some one is in deep deep shit here. It is more than likely that that someone or more than someone will do jail time over this. This is not unprecedented, especially in more recent times.
Lots o lawyer work as a result of this one. More than lots.
ns
Posted by: nspolar | Wednesday, May 19, 2010 at 01:53 PM
>Some one and maybe more than some one is in deep deep shit here.<
Yeah, thousands of innocents.
Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Wednesday, May 19, 2010 at 02:13 PM
Mark Fisher says buy Crude Oil and industrial commodities . . . Everything that China wants.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1498428206&play=1
I would AGREE with my fellow #4 World Trade Center floor trader known as "FISH".
Posted by: Michael | Wednesday, May 19, 2010 at 02:41 PM
Sold my Long Position today : Gold
http://www.elliottfractals.com/YGM10_51910_trade.jpg
Hank
Posted by: Hank Wernicki | Wednesday, May 19, 2010 at 03:05 PM
"Sold my Long Position today : Gold "
Hank, if gold has topped, everything will come down..stocks...oil, except the USD.
Roger D.
Posted by: Roger D. | Wednesday, May 19, 2010 at 03:57 PM