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« The Euro Strikes Out | Main | Target for the Euro »

Monday, May 17, 2010


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Mamma Boom Boom

I started pointing out that the China-man's index was going to be a problem quite a while back.

Wave Rust

"Neely counts the sharp drop as the start of a triangle. We have a really clear test of NEoWave vs. Elliott Wave. He must count the drop as a "3", since triangles are a set of five 3-wave moves. (For readers who do not subscribe to Neely, he has the Jan-Feb5 drop an X wave, the rise since wave A, and says we are in a triangle wave B with a C to go to new highs. The sharp drop is leg a of B, the bounce leg b, and we either are still in b or have started leg c.) Neely says higher highs ahead, EWI says the top is in. "

I was wondering what Neely labels the Jan high.

For me, it looks like a nested 1 (likely minor) and the down-up-down since then as an irregular a-b-c with minor 3 to come.

Actual degree doesn't matter too much right now, since it's setting up bullish.

wave rust


Great coverage on China Yelnick, thanks.

Maybe it is time:

You tell me there's an angel in your tree
Did he say he'd come to call on me
For things are getting desperate in our home
Living in the parish of the restless folks I know

Everybody now bring your family down to the riverside
Look to the east to see where the fat stock hide
Behind four walls of stone the rich man sleeps
It's time we put the flame torch to their keep

Burn down the mission
If we're gonna stay alive
Watch the black smoke fly to heaven
See the red flame light the sky

Burn down the mission
Burn it down to stay alive
It's our only chance of living
Take all you need to live inside

Deep in the woods the squirrels are out today
My wife cried when they came to take me away
But what more could I do just to keep her warm
Than burn burn burn burn down the mission walls

I guess Bernie had some real insights when he penned this one.

Wave Rust

Cant help but think that China stock index is nearly irrelevant.

in fact, this post is making me even more bullish.

maybe I should get longer tonight and tomorrow.

wave rust


FCX is a put /sell short waiting to happen

Mr. Panic

I have another trading day cycle today. It could go either way and be a low or a high and not be apparent until hindsight but I was originally looking for it to be a high and thus a freefall should ensue ala Jan 20th when it once appeared. We have already had two important trading day cycles appear in the last two weeks which produced downturns; this third one should put into force the final downside action.
Cobra gives an apt description why today's hammer pattern is not a reversal unlike Feb 5's (which also had a greater shadow). Another reason is McClellan Oscillator is mildly negative and just made a pause (like the market) in its downtrend. (Breadth was still decently negative). I am looking for May 20th as a key low as I am seeing this date quite a bit in the financialsphere. One key reason being this date has been hyped as a key top date by TTheory dude and his advocates for quite awhile and thus the lemmings will stay long in this market in expectation of a high. Options expiration week is keeping many bullish also. In fact I see very little worry in the blogosphere. Many think this is a short term bottom. Of course the post April 4 2000 bounce and subsequent drop had a similar day to today. 3 hard down days followed to finish the momentum down part of the phase. (Final down day's entire body was below the late january 2000 correction similar to this years late Jan to Feb 5 correction) Many former "perma-bears" are now calling for SP 1300 and some are even going long during this drop (and some did on the crash day)
There is a technical signature that is indicating that a decent rally can only commence next week and the best the bulls can expect this week is sideways chop. Options expiration week in April 2000 was a sideways to up and then down week but that week should be the equivalent to next week.


"I started pointing out that the China-man's index was going to be a problem quite a while back."

Mama ... what did you do about it?


Mr. Panic

Shanghai Index topped out last July/August 50% above its 200day moving average which a bubble like top high or in this case a mini echo bubble high since Shanghai already accomplished this feat at its all time high in 2007. That's why I believe gold has furthur to run in its blowoff top if this is it. (other technical signature required for a blowoff top: 100% rally in less than a year and at least 100% above its 200 WEEK average.) Michael Belkin had done wonderful studies on bull and bear markets and how key moving averages should be applied to them but he seems to have disappeared from the financial scene. He would be a great topic for a Planet Yelnick article if he is still in the game.


"I started pointing out that the China-man's index was going to be a problem quite a while back."

"Mama ... what did you do about it?"-ns

He doesn't do ANYTHING about it because he doesn't trade. Period.

Gleen Loser Neely

my son DG IS LOST!!!!!

has anyone seen it??????

i am gong to call the zoo right now!!!!

Mamma Boom Boom

>Mama ... what did you do about it?

Nothing, directly. It is just one more piece of the puzzle in US equities.

Wave Rust


wave rust


Yelnick,you mention McHugh

that's Doctor McHugh to you.
he doesn;t even like being called Mr McHugh!


Cheryl, Dr McHugh it is!

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